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Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

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Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#21

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

rayiner wrote: post #14
ComputerGuru wrote: post #4

The important part is that this doesn’t seek to force a zero trade deficit on a per-country basis. Imagine insisting Cambodia has to buy as much US goods (taking into account the type of goods the US exports) as US companies import from Cambodian factories.

Over 90% of the trade deficit is attributable to China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Canada. These are big, diversified economies. Nobody is focused on Cambodia.

Cambodians are, and they were just hit by a 49% tariff, one of the highest applied to anybody.

Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#22

Post by tekla »

rayiner wrote: post #18
throw0101d wrote: post #15

That's from 2003. In a more recent interview in March 2025: > Asked about how tariffs will affect the economy, Buffett stated, "Tariffs are actually, we've had a lot of experience with them. They're an act of war, to some degree." > I asked, "How do you think tariffs will impact inflation?" > "Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the Tooth Fairy doesn't pay 'em!" he laughed. "And then what? You always have to…

> That's from 2003. Would you argue that the period between 2003 and 2025 have strengthened or weakened the case for free trade?

Strengthened. People really fucking hate rising prices.

Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#23

Post by mbac32768 »

paxys wrote: post #20

Buffett has been aggressive selling stock in the last year ($134 billion total in 2024) and Berkshire is right now sitting on $334 billion cash vs $272 billion in equities. Kinda funny because he's the first one who will tell you "don't time the market", but he definitely timed it to perfection. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".

> Kinda funny because he's the first one who will tell you "don't time the market", but he definitely timed it to perfection.

I don't know if he's specifically said this but I think a more accurate picture of his view is "unless you're an idiot savant like me whose skill for this would be useless at any other point in history, don't try to time the markets".

Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#24

Post by throw0101d »

rayiner wrote: post #18
throw0101d wrote: post #15

That's from 2003. In a more recent interview in March 2025: > Asked about how tariffs will affect the economy, Buffett stated, "Tariffs are actually, we've had a lot of experience with them. They're an act of war, to some degree." > I asked, "How do you think tariffs will impact inflation?" > "Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the Tooth Fairy doesn't pay 'em!" he laughed. "And then what? You always have to…

> That's from 2003. Would you argue that the period between 2003 and 2025 have strengthened or weakened the case for free trade?

> Would you argue that the period between 2003 and 2025 have strengthened or weakened the case for free trade?

For the US specifically, various considerations:

* https://twitter.com/ArmandDoma/status/1908189982789095677#m

* https://www.csis.org/analysis/do-not-blame-trade-decline-man...

* https://archive.is/https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-trade-di...

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/when-are-tariffs-good

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufacturing-is-a-war-now

Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#26

Post by twoodfin »

rayiner wrote: post #18
throw0101d wrote: post #15

That's from 2003. In a more recent interview in March 2025: > Asked about how tariffs will affect the economy, Buffett stated, "Tariffs are actually, we've had a lot of experience with them. They're an act of war, to some degree." > I asked, "How do you think tariffs will impact inflation?" > "Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the Tooth Fairy doesn't pay 'em!" he laughed. "And then what? You always have to…

> That's from 2003. Would you argue that the period between 2003 and 2025 have strengthened or weakened the case for free trade?

Strengthened.

In the US this has happened:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA646N

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96

Meanwhile across the entire world this has happened:

https://ourworldindata.org/history-of-poverty-data-appendix

You can argue the growth of globalization & lowering of trade barriers were unrelated to this up-and-to-the-right, but it’s hard to argue they’re making things worse unless you really scope down to particular losers in a world of mostly winners.

Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#27

Post by mindslight »

rayiner wrote: post #18
throw0101d wrote: post #15

That's from 2003. In a more recent interview in March 2025: > Asked about how tariffs will affect the economy, Buffett stated, "Tariffs are actually, we've had a lot of experience with them. They're an act of war, to some degree." > I asked, "How do you think tariffs will impact inflation?" > "Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the Tooth Fairy doesn't pay 'em!" he laughed. "And then what? You always have to…

> That's from 2003. Would you argue that the period between 2003 and 2025 have strengthened or weakened the case for free trade?

Hindsight weakens the case for free trade in 2003, along with the realization that the government would do very little [0] to mitigate the specific harms using the centralized gains (from massive monetary creation without much corresponding price inflation).

But in 2025, tariffs are closing the barn door after the horse ran out, went to horse college, settled down, had some foals, and saw them grow up and move into their own doorless barns. But that's populism for you, always responding to the previous crisis with an approach that will enrich its sponsors and then cause the next crisis.

[0] The Republican party's fake "fiscal responsibility" where most of that money was just handed to banks instead, driving up the asset bubbles. I'm saying this as a general libertarian from a conservative Austrian economics view, not as a Democratic partisan booster. But blame where blame is due.

Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#28

Post by shipp02 »

tromp wrote: post #3

The salient part: > The time to halt this trading of assets for consumables is now, and I have a plan to suggest for getting it done. My remedy may sound gimmicky, and in truth it is a tariff called by another name. But this is a tariff that retains most free-market virtues, neither protecting specific industries nor punishing specific countries nor encouraging trade wars. This plan would increase our exports and mig…

I don't know if strict import control is a good idea. Look up license raj in India.

It also added a lot of opportunities for corruption.

Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#29

Post by watwut »

paxys wrote: post #20

Buffett has been aggressive selling stock in the last year ($134 billion total in 2024) and Berkshire is right now sitting on $334 billion cash vs $272 billion in equities. Kinda funny because he's the first one who will tell you "don't time the market", but he definitely timed it to perfection. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".

He is against tariffs in 2025 as executed by Donald Trump, openly.

Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)

#30

Post by wetpaws »

mbac32768 wrote: post #23
paxys wrote: post #20

Buffett has been aggressive selling stock in the last year ($134 billion total in 2024) and Berkshire is right now sitting on $334 billion cash vs $272 billion in equities. Kinda funny because he's the first one who will tell you "don't time the market", but he definitely timed it to perfection. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".

> Kinda funny because he's the first one who will tell you "don't time the market", but he definitely timed it to perfection. I don't know if he's specifically said this but I think a more accurate picture of his view is "unless you're an idiot savant like me whose skill for this would be useless at any other point in history, don't try to time the markets".

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