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Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

seanobannon.substack.com

21–30 of 187 posts

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#21
The most significant US regulations in the area aren't even mentioned in this article: the prohibitively high tariffs on Chinese solar modules and electric vehicles, which at least double the cost of solar panels and EVs in the US compared to much of the rest of the world.

Current US elites grew up in the energy crisis that started with the Arab oil embargo of 01973 cutting off US energy imports, and they seem determined to perpetuate that crisis, if necessary by cutting off US imports of energy production infrastructure themselves now that the foreigners won't do it for them anymore.

The article vastly understates the rapidity of the change. It projects 3 TW of new renewable generation capacity in China over the next decade (02026-02036, I suppose), attributing that to an unpublished report from a consultancy that seems to protect its projections from criticism with an NDA. Given that the PRC installed 373 GW in renewable generation capacity last year (https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202501/28/cont...) this seems like an implausibly low figure; linear extrapolation of installing that same amount every year would give us 3.7 TW installed over that period. But in fact it has been growing exponentially, so 20 TW of added capacity over the next decade seems like a more likely ballpark.

That's nameplate capacity, so it's closer to 4 TW of actual energy generation.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#23
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California is not plummeting in total emissions either, which is the point of the plots in there. The only thing that could move this along faster is to shut down fully running and functional fossil fuel facilities, which means that the huge capital assets are stranded and a big loss to the people who paid for them. There, Texas's approach of private investors bearing the cost of that poor investment will fare much b…

> and making EVs about the same cost as a gas car At first I was like, isn't that great EVs are the more expensive car but then I realized you meant that the electricity costs as much as the equivalent gas. Oof. Yikes. That's really bad.

Thanks for pointing out that ambiguity, I hopefully edited for better clarity!

The other problem in California is that most heating is done via natural gas, and though heating needs are fairly low if houses had any sort of insulation, there's basically zero insulation in all homes. Which means that every winter, people experience massive natural gas bills that should be close to zero, making it very problematic to switch some of the utility cost burdens from the electricity side to natural gas side. Meanwhile, PG&E profits are at the very top of the utility stock list for its profit margins...

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#24
It wouldn't be surprising that de-regulation is good for innovation in the US, because "regulation" in the US almost always means corporate capture of a market through political bribery.

Regulation in territories where it is harder for corporations to buy politicians seems to be far more successful at driving improvements.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#25
In EU renewable are not competitive without strong regulations and subsidies. Distributors are forced to buy renewable at 5x the cost, and keep gas power plants at hot standby in case wind stops, or cloud comes.

At the same time, long term investments into fossil fuels and atomic energy are forbidden!

Saying "deregulated" energy markets drive solar, is another level of evil. It is logic that drove dependency on Russian natural gas!

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#26

Deregulating a basic human need and leaving it to the 'market' to solve this. This sounds a lot like other privatization efforts of the past decades. In my country healthcare, child support, energy, national railway, postal services, public housing, banking and more have all been privatized. I worry about this. Not for now, but for 20 years in the future, where all energy is managed by companies and the government ca…

There is nothing wrong with markets solving basic human needs as long as the incentives are properly aligned.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#27

Gimme a break. Compare China's centralized economy's solar/wind/nuclear production to the entirety of the west's decentralized, privatized economy. not even close.

China burns more coal than the rest of the world combined.

To power the factories that build the products we so desperately need for a price we can afford.

If we stopped buying shit we don't need, they could easily turn off a good portion of their coal powered electricity plants if they wanted.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#28
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and making EVs about the same cost as a gas car At first I was like, isn't that great EVs are the more expensive car but then I realized you meant that the electricity costs as much as the equivalent gas. Oof. Yikes. That's really bad.

Thanks for pointing out that ambiguity, I hopefully edited for better clarity! The other problem in California is that most heating is done via natural gas, and though heating needs are fairly low if houses had any sort of insulation, there's basically zero insulation in all homes. Which means that every winter, people experience massive natural gas bills that should be close to zero, making it very problematic to sw…

> there's basically zero insulation in all homes.

This is completely false.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#29

The Texas grid was deregulated in an era where solar and wind were not price competitive. The price competitive producers were all stable fossil fuels, natural gas and coal. They failed to take into account unreliable low cost producers forcing reliable but marginally more expensive producers out of the market. If solar/wind producers had to guarantee power 24x7 at fixed rates the cost would vastly exceed natural gas…

> If solar/wind producers had to guarantee power 24x7 at fixed rates the cost would vastly exceed natural gas costs.

Possibly, but neither usage nor generation is 24x7 at fixed cost, so what would be the point of that requirement?

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California is not plummeting in total emissions either, which is the point of the plots in there. The only thing that could move this along faster is to shut down fully running and functional fossil fuel facilities, which means that the huge capital assets are stranded and a big loss to the people who paid for them. There, Texas's approach of private investors bearing the cost of that poor investment will fare much b…

I don't really know, the details of measuring energy consumption, emissions, and price is a fairly convoluted concept as far as I know. Asking google AI: "California emmisions rate" gave: "California has seen a decline in greenhouse gas emissions, with a 20% reduction since 2000, while its economy has grown significantly. The state aims to reduce emissions to 85% below 1990 levels by 2045 and achieve carbon neutralit…

Google AI is not really useful, but going to an actual reliable source from that such as California's emissions inventory:

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/ghg-inventory-graphs

The graphs seem to contradict those in the article, as the article has a huge annual variability not shown in the government data, and also the article does not show the decline in the "Electric Power" sector that's shown so clearly in the CA government data.

I also would not agree with the article's assessment that Texas is a "disaster" based on the same sort of plot. Serving the needs of ever more people, with an ever growing GDP, but keeping emissions constant is a win environmentally.

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