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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

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Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#21

Post by __loam »

getnormality wrote: post #11

This article lost all credibility with me here: > ...this means that only 20% of labor productivity growth in the US since 1988 has been driven by R&D spending! Capital deepening accounts for around half of labor productivity growth in this period... This is like saying that Jeff Dean's net worth is attributable not to his programming skills, but to the capital deepening of his bank account. The authors are working w…

Bizarre way to describe capital deepening. Jeff's programming skills probably got a lot more relevant because of things like the proliferation of internet access and utility computing. Seems like a pretty simple statement to me but maybe that's too abstract for you.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#23

Post by [deleted] »

elzbardico wrote: post #14
Swizec wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Broad automation of tasks can be great for society if and only if the product of that automation is not treated as some kind of private property. Star Trek or Bladerunner? That’s a choice we can make.

No. Most of the time WE can't make this choice. It is imposed on us by the elites.

[deleted]

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#24

Post by gom_jabbar »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #9

This is exactly correct technically and perfectly on the existing “paved path” of technology determinism. My company is actively in the process of demonstrating the “Learning machine” which is a Weiner style cybernetic system of systems It’s unquestionable at this point that machines will displace all human labor where labor efficiency is the key factor for investment/use. Start with transfer learning from existing h…

> Almost nobody is working on what to do after

One interesting possibility is that this is not something humans need to work on at all - because, as Nick Land famously put it, "Tomorrow can take care of itself." [0]

[0] https://retrochronic.com/#meltdown

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#25

Post by rqtwteye »

techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number of highly qualified people.

I am not sure where this is going but there will be some large changes to society needed if technology keeps progressing at current speed.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#26

Post by api »

decGetAc wrote: post #7
api wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing human labor with technology is usually a wonderful thing if the gains are generally realized. It means less time spent in 'toil' and more time to pursue one's true interests and desires. The reason it feels depressing is that if recent history is any guide, 0.0001% of the human race will receive almost all the benefit. A tiny number of richer-than-rich will get even richer and everyone else will stay the sa…

Agreed,only the super rich will get cars err electricity err I mean refrigerators err I mean personal computers err I mean mobile devices To be fair I think there's a lot of truth in your statement in the short term (and arguably in the long). But in the 'long' term , it sure does look like revolutionary technology makes everyday peoples life better (I didn't even go into transportation or health care/life expectency…

When I said recent history I meant the last roughly 20 years, when the trend has been for gains to go to a smaller and smaller number of people.

Of course historically this does seem to be a cycle. Usually it goes gilded age, revolution, broad-based growth, emergence of a new elite, repeat cycle. Unfortunately the revolution period is often very chaotic and destructive.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#27

Post by tbrownaw »

getnormality wrote: post #11

This article lost all credibility with me here: > ...this means that only 20% of labor productivity growth in the US since 1988 has been driven by R&D spending! Capital deepening accounts for around half of labor productivity growth in this period... This is like saying that Jeff Dean's net worth is attributable not to his programming skills, but to the capital deepening of his bank account. The authors are working w…

You know how office workers are more productive because of computers? This didn't just happen because various companies did R&D investments in building (better) computers, but also because companies actually spent money buying computers for their office workers and because those office workers spent time learning how to use computers.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#28

Post by adamnemecek »

techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

> unlikely to manifest

Over what time period? 5 years? 100 years?

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#29

Post by surgical_fire »

jajko wrote: post #13
therein wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it extra surprising that people are advocating for transitioning to using AI while their proof of concept looks like this: do { resp = callAI(input); } while (!isOutputSane(resp) && attempts++ < MAX_RETRY)

Nobody sane and smart I know is advocating for AI now . All keep saying 'one day', 'soon' etc. Our megacorp very effectively blocked all of this and we don't have anything internal yet, but we are in specific market. And basically all I saw so far was a snake oil from people trying to push it or benefit from it, even here. Trust me bro... well no, show me some hard facts and we can start building trust. Sure assistan…

> All keep saying 'one day', 'soon' etc.

The parallels with crypto are amazing.

> And basically all I saw so far was a snake oil from people trying to push it or benefit from it, even here. Trust me bro...

Cue some dude chiming in on how they are 1000% more productive now and wrote 100 apps in a weekend with Claude, etc.

It is very tiresome indeed.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#30

Post by jgilias »

jajko wrote: post #13
therein wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it extra surprising that people are advocating for transitioning to using AI while their proof of concept looks like this: do { resp = callAI(input); } while (!isOutputSane(resp) && attempts++ < MAX_RETRY)

Nobody sane and smart I know is advocating for AI now . All keep saying 'one day', 'soon' etc. Our megacorp very effectively blocked all of this and we don't have anything internal yet, but we are in specific market. And basically all I saw so far was a snake oil from people trying to push it or benefit from it, even here. Trust me bro... well no, show me some hard facts and we can start building trust. Sure assistan…

Advocate or not, it’s here to stay. And if you’re not adjusting to it, you’re doing yourself a disservice.

Last week I did the amount of work that would’ve taken me give or take a month. A significant part of it was writing an API client for a system I needed to use. Pretty run of the mill stuff. Doing this ‘by hand’ just takes time. Go look at the docs, type out your data structures, wire things up for the new call, write tests. With “the robot” once the framework was largely in place, you just paste API docs for the endpoint you need, and it’s done in a minute. With tests and everything.

Now, you could argue that this is not “senior level work”. Sure, maybe. But the thing is, you need to use it to learn how to use it effectively, and more importantly to get the intuition about what it can help with best.

So this is my thesis now - if you’re a senior who neglects this new tool, you’re going to be out of a job soon-ish.

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