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AMD YOLO

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Re: AMD YOLO

#21

Post by deadbabe »

Jalad wrote: post #4
dlcarrier wrote: post #3

AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. I don't think the reckoning will come from AMD stealing Nvidia's market share, it'll come when the hype bubble collapses and businesses start treating neural networks like commodities, running whatever is cheapest instead of the absolute most powerful. AMD is in a great position, because they make both great GPU/NPU hardware and great CPU hardware.

> AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. AMD trades at a price to earnings ratio of 99, NVDA trades at a PE of ~38. PE isn't everything when looking at companies, but I don't see other reasons to think AMD is undervalued

Is PE even anything? If you guided your investing based on sane PE ratios for the past decade you would have been consistently unhappy with missing out on huge gains in tech companies.

Re: AMD YOLO

#22

Post by formerly_proven »

dlcarrier wrote: post #3

AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. I don't think the reckoning will come from AMD stealing Nvidia's market share, it'll come when the hype bubble collapses and businesses start treating neural networks like commodities, running whatever is cheapest instead of the absolute most powerful. AMD is in a great position, because they make both great GPU/NPU hardware and great CPU hardware.

Nvidia is imho kind of a resurgence of large scale 90s Unix systems (ala SGI) [1], and not just by pricing and looks but also if you look at the vertical integration. I think this kind of business setup is more vulnerable to competition from below than people like to think, and it really only takes 1-2 product misses for a big shakeup.

[1] Co-developed proprietary software stacks running on highly proprietary and non-standard hardware targeting very specific workloads.

Re: AMD YOLO

#25

Post by parsimo2010 »

"I’m betting on AMD being undervalued, and that the demand for AI has barely started."

I'd love to see AMD get a multiplatorm product so mature that I can pip install PyTorch on Windows or MacOS with an AMD card (https://pytorch.org/get-started/locally/). But I don't think that their market cap will change quickly even if this happens. Many people have been bought AMD cards in the past because they are cheaper and then died waiting for AMD to have a mature CUDA equivalent. Nobody is going to be quickly buying AMD cards as soon as the software is good- they will gradually change when they replace NVDA hardware, and not everyone is going to make that choice.

If I were making a bet (and I'm not), I'd bet that NVDA is overvalued right now and their growth will slow to correct this but it won't crash, and I'd bet that AMD will gradually increase in value to reward them for software investments, but it won't spike as soon as their software looks good. Neither of these things would I want to put a lot of money on, since they are long term bets, and if you're going long then you might as well just invest in the broader market. And even if I thought that NVDA was going to crash and AMD was going to spike, I still wouldn't bet because I have no idea whether it would happen in the next 6 months or 6 years.

Re: AMD YOLO

#26

Post by AnotherGoodName »

y-curious wrote: post #15
rs186 wrote: post #12

I have trouble distinguishing this post from those on r/wallstreetbets. To be honest, I have seen quite a few posts on wsb that are much more informative than this

Well, I generally am inclined to take DD from geohotz over anonymous wsb posts.

It's not interesting though. He was sent an MI300X, released in 2023, to develop his AI stack with.

The MI300X was lacking in a few areas vs the H100 at the time, overall perf and power efficiency were two big areas. Power efficiency is critical atm, that's seriously the biggest barrier to scaling datacenter rollout right now.

AMDs next card might be better on this front, it might not. But this article doesn't talk to anything about the next card. It's referring to a card from 2023.

Re: AMD YOLO

#27

Post by eightysixfour »

baal80spam wrote: post #18
eightysixfour wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> foreseeable future I think this is the arguable part. The more AI compute becomes valuable, the more reason there is to divest from their software moat. Their hardware is good, but not unassailable. I think their modest (by tech hype standards) P/E is recognition of this.

But they are making strides in robotics already. Jensen is super smart, business-savvy AND hard-working. These are some of many reasons I own NVDA.

Honestly, I'm having a hard time with my sarcasm detector here. Plenty of others working on robots. Plenty of smart, business savvy, hard working CEOs that didn't win the next round of the infinite game.

I like nvidia, I think they're doing good work, but I don't think their current trajectory is some sort of well-moated flywheel the way some others think it is. Selling shovels during a gold rush can make you rich, it doesn't mean you'll still be selling shovels in 100 years.

Re: AMD YOLO

#29

Post by georgeecollins »

deadbabe wrote: post #21
Jalad wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. AMD trades at a price to earnings ratio of 99, NVDA trades at a PE of ~38. PE isn't everything when looking at companies, but I don't see other reasons to think AMD is undervalued

Is PE even anything? If you guided your investing based on sane PE ratios for the past decade you would have been consistently unhappy with missing out on huge gains in tech companies.

In the long run, I believe yes. PE also would not have been helpful in the late 1920s or late 1990s. But things tend to revert.

One of the reasons why different companies have different p/e for a long time is expectation of growth. So META has had a pretty high P/E, but then E has been growing really fast. GM's earnings don't grow so past so the P/E is low. And capital efficiency also hurts P/E.

Disclaimer: I believe stocks represent fractional ownership of an actual company and are ultimately (but not always) valued as such. You can make an argument that financial instruments are just driven by sentiment, supply and demand, and have no correlation to actual reality.

Re: AMD YOLO

#30

Post by wavemode »

Unfortunately I think the current AI hype cycle will die down before AMD ever gets a chance to benefit from it in terms of stock price.

AMD is not undervalued, rather it is Nvidia that is overvalued.

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