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Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

seanobannon.substack.com

21–30 of 105 posts

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#21
I think the weakness of this argument is that “domestic American drones” will just be using parts, or entire drones, made in China

“Ukraine are producing two-and-a-half drones a day now.“ What is that supposed to mean? A drone has a lot of parts. I can make 2 1/2 drones a day if I have the parts.

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#22
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's things like the Anduril Bolt. They cost like 100x as much as devices the Ukranians are building from cardboard. Another major innovation is TOW style fiber optic control which is immune to electronic countermeasures. There's definitely a lot to learn, but sadly necessity is the mother of invention and not since WW2 has manufacturing cost really been a serious concern for US defense production. Seems like we'l…

> Seems like we'll need a really big war to make that essential, and then there's an open question whether we'd actually be able to do it given that nobody knows how to do anything anymore. I'm not sure if I'd be rooting for this eventuality.

No, I'm definitely not! But I can't imagine the US defense sector doing anything sensible otherwise.

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#23
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has exactly one aircraft carrier that nearly sank of its own accord. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_aircraft_carrier_Admir... Taiwan should be building a lot of drones if they intend to fight. However, that's not the only possibility; recent shifts in US posture may encourage the "voluntary reintegration" local political faction, including the possibility of handing over TSMC intact.

It's not Russia's aircraft carriers I'm concerned about. Russia's experience with drones vs. her guided missile cruisers has more than enough there to translate to more capable aircraft carriers.

If I remember rightly, one of the successful attacks was a floating "drone" made of a small boat packed with explosives. Kind of a hybrid between the torpedo and the fireship, and quite hard to defend against at night.

China has (checks wikipedia) three operational carriers, one very modern Fujian, the obsolete former training ship Liaoning, and Shandong, which appears to be halfway between the two, the first locally built carrier. During WW2, the US fielded ... 111 aircraft carriers. Just a whole different order of magnitude.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Liaon... (interesting and varied history!)

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#24

This reads like a piece of defense propaganda. "Undoing the 1990s decision" - should we really return the US defense industry to cold-war levels? The world has changed, and the threat of outright war with the US is dramatically lower than 4 decades ago. Yes, China is an adversary, but to say that it's an existential threat to the US the same way the Soviet Union was is absurd.

[deleted]

Claims that other people are propagandizing are ridiculous with zero evidence, that’s some FUD BS. Make a better argument against OP if you’re so sure.

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#25

I think the weakness of this argument is that “domestic American drones” will just be using parts, or entire drones, made in China “Ukraine are producing two-and-a-half drones a day now.“ What is that supposed to mean? A drone has a lot of parts. I can make 2 1/2 drones a day if I have the parts.

Ukraine announced a two weeks ago that they built 2.5 million drones last year. Maybe that number got garbled somewhere?

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#26

I think the weakness of this argument is that “domestic American drones” will just be using parts, or entire drones, made in China “Ukraine are producing two-and-a-half drones a day now.“ What is that supposed to mean? A drone has a lot of parts. I can make 2 1/2 drones a day if I have the parts.

Ukraine is producing way more that that: they're up to millions per year: https://thedefensepost.com/2024/10/03/ukraine-produce-millio...

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#27

I saw someone claiming drones are the biggest military invention since the stirrup! The US would do well to start catching up on that technology. BTW, I assume that when/if the Ukraine war ends, the Ukrainian drone industry will be the best in the world.

I’m just baffled how Russia switched the frontline using fiber drones. It’s genius and worrisome at the same time.

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#28

This reads like a piece of defense propaganda. "Undoing the 1990s decision" - should we really return the US defense industry to cold-war levels? The world has changed, and the threat of outright war with the US is dramatically lower than 4 decades ago. Yes, China is an adversary, but to say that it's an existential threat to the US the same way the Soviet Union was is absurd.

[deleted]

> And they (China) are explicitly interested in overturning the global order.

- Putin is actively taking Ukrainian territory by force

- Trump is threatening to take Greenland, Canada and the Panama canal by (economic) force

- Xi Jinping is threatening to take Taiwanese territory by force

Of all three, Jinping seems like the smallest threat to the "world order".

If you're talking about economic power, that's a different story but I wouldn't call them "adversary" in that context.

Re: Regulatory gridlock in the U.S. risks losing the drone arms race

#30
post #19

I saw someone claiming drones are the biggest military invention since the stirrup! The US would do well to start catching up on that technology. BTW, I assume that when/if the Ukraine war ends, the Ukrainian drone industry will be the best in the world.

> BTW, I assume that when/if the Ukraine war ends, the Ukrainian drone industry will be the best in the world. I'd say it already is.

Don't forget China. China is way ahead everybody else when it comes to consumer drones and producing them at scale. Like way ahead.
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