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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

nabraj.com

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#21

Post by raincole »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #9

> Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage. This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball/the NBA went on for decades without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?

It's such an arrogant comment.

"Really basic math"? Do you think NBA coaches reached this conclusion like this:

1. A player can throw X 2-points in a game.

2. Or he can throw Y 3-points in a game.

3. 3Y > 2X, so we should just throw 3-points all the time.

It's absolutely not what happened. And the reason teams didn't discovery the current strategy decades earlier was absolutely not that they couldn't do basic math.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#22

Post by lawgimenez »

hyperion2010 wrote: post #17
waderyan wrote: post #11

Easy fix. Get rid of the corner threes and push the three point line back.

Or just get rid of 3 pointers entirely in the NBA.

Or add a 4-point line

https://youtu.be/IgEkocfa62g?si=63y0a_Zk8CxJ-5rM

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#23

Post by meisel »

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they have their own set of tradeoffs and are neither a total solution nor totally embraced in the NBA. Teams will continue to evolve based on the talents of people at their disposal and their own innovative ideas.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#24

Post by threemux »

This happens at times in all sports. The NFL is a prime example. QBs were lighting up big, heavy defenses with deep passes. Then teams ran two high safeties to prevent this. This year, offenses adjusted again to run more against the smaller linebackers and nickel/dime packages.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#25

Post by vunderba »

ks2048 wrote: post #6

I read something about Go - that very unusual (maybe even considered bad) playing could beat the super-AIs. They are so tuned to opponents in a "typical" style, that they don't know how to beat a player outside this distribution. Maybe an NBA team will come up with something like that.

I'd be interested in seeing a link to this. Decades ago, playing defensive "computer chess" used to be a relatively optimal strategy against Chess AIs.

However, I believe Kasparov famously tried to employ this tactic against Deep Blue but by that time it wasn't particularly viable.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#26

Post by tracerbulletx »

raincole wrote: post #21
Xenoamorphous wrote: post #9

> Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage. This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball/the NBA went on for decades without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?

It's such an arrogant comment. "Really basic math"? Do you think NBA coaches reached this conclusion like this: 1. A player can throw X 2-points in a game. 2. Or he can throw Y 3-points in a game. 3. 3Y > 2X, so we should just throw 3-points all the time. It's absolutely not what happened. And the reason teams didn't discovery the current strategy decades earlier was absolutely not that they couldn't do basic math.

Right because it was x * 2P% * 2 < Y * 3P% * 3

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#27

Post by unyttigfjelltol »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #9

> Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage. This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball/the NBA went on for decades without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?

4th down attempts in American football come to mind. Twenty years ago they were rare; mathematically they should be common.[1] Coaches have shifted with the math but not quite as dramatically as it suggests.

[1] https://malteranalytics.github.io/nfl-4th-down/

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#28

Post by jordanmorgan10 »

This reads as someone who looks at data but doesn’t actually play basketball, coach basketball or generally know basketball. Numbers can only tell you so much, and 2025 Celtics and the rise of Steph have led to more 3s but the sport of basketball is not as predictable as the author suggests. For example, look at the college game, which doesn’t reflect this trend as much as the NBA does.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#29

Post by rambambram »

I haven't looked at the NBA in more than 20 years and recently started watching it again. I was shocked. Not necessarily by all the three point shots, but more about the carrying of the ball, the multiple extra steps that players take before dunking or laying up, and getting extra free throws when it's the offensive players who rams into a still standing defender. If I want to watch rugby or ice hockey, then I watch rugby or ice hockey, this jumping into defenders has nothing to do with basketball if you'd ask me. And this Donkic trade to the Lakers because of gambling money, ughh... it's an ugly organisation.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#30

Post by tclancy »

Ah, this is the current grouse about the league, that it is all pace and space and somehow the art is lost. Sports go through eras. I will simply assume the author was not alive to watch Pat Reilly’s Knicks play their version of juego bonito, but while the over reliance on threes can make individual games hard to watch, the league has more talent that I can remember and there are so many fun players. It is bold to declare basketball is now deterministic in Year Two of Wemby and with all the other people capable of doing things we thought unique a generation ago. Plus there are some great minds as coaches right now. I think Spolestra, Daigneault and Mazzula will have something to say about how the game is played.
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