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Voters were right about the economy

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Re: Voters were right about the economy

#21

Post by tensor »

lapcat wrote: post #17
bryanlarsen wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, let's call their number U7. It seems like it's U6 + those on a poverty wage. It's a fairly reasonable argument that U6 is a better measure of unemployment than U3. And I'd accept a similar argument for their U7, or the other U7's out there that add people like the discouraged. But I suspect that their U7 is likely at a 20 year low, just like U3 and U6 are. Which would invalidate their argument, in my opinion.

I think it's extremely unlikely that this team, led by a U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, just messed up something obvious: https://www.lisep.org/team

The "data" either supports their claim or it doesn't. They've defined a new metric, now they can back up their claim by showing how this metric has changed over the last 20 years.

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#22

Post by radlad »

bell-cot wrote: post #7

Sounds right. I'm in a major university town in SE Michigan. In recent years, apartment rents rose by ~4X the "official" gov't rate of inflation. Supposedly, the townies and students are diehard Democratic liberals. But especially around campus, voting statistics show Trump getting many more votes last November (and Harris many fewer) than the stereotypes would suggest.

So, having grown up in Ann Arbor, it's pretty clear that's the city you're talking about. Ann Arbor has had a big issue with NIMBY-ism preventing new developments for decades, and that's nothing new. Additionally, the entire city council and mayor are registered "Democrats" but that doesn't necessarily mean that they are progressive - or even if they are, that they care about housing as a primary issue.

70% of voters in Washtenaw County voted for Harris: https://electionresults.ewashtenaw.org/electionreporting/nov...

Compare that to 72% of voters who voted for Biden in 2020. I don't see much of a discrepancy: https://electionresults.ewashtenaw.org/electionreporting/nov...

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#23

Post by bryanlarsen »

lapcat wrote: post #17
bryanlarsen wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, let's call their number U7. It seems like it's U6 + those on a poverty wage. It's a fairly reasonable argument that U6 is a better measure of unemployment than U3. And I'd accept a similar argument for their U7, or the other U7's out there that add people like the discouraged. But I suspect that their U7 is likely at a 20 year low, just like U3 and U6 are. Which would invalidate their argument, in my opinion.

I think it's extremely unlikely that this team, led by a U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, just messed up something obvious: https://www.lisep.org/team

It's likely the problems are all in the politico framing of it.

U7 seems useful. U7 being 24% feels right-ish. That's on Ludwig.

Implying that 24% is worse than normal when it's likely one of the best values we've had in decades? That's on Politico.

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#24

Post by lapcat »

tensor wrote: post #21
lapcat wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's extremely unlikely that this team, led by a U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, just messed up something obvious: https://www.lisep.org/team

The "data" either supports their claim or it doesn't. They've defined a new metric, now they can back up their claim by showing how this metric has changed over the last 20 years.

Their website has white papers, methodology, and data.

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#26

Post by ThrowawayR2 »

nuancebydefault wrote: post #6

The statements in the article are as good as impossible to verify, no clear metrics, no formulas, no charts. Also the pretext that 'voters' vote around 'the economy' is hard to qualify nor quantify. What's clear to me is that a lot of voters believed someone who repeats things over and over and promises to 'fix' things with zero evidence to show for. It tells us more about effectiveness of repeating, fear mongering a…

> "Also the pretext that 'voters' vote around 'the economy' is hard to qualify nor quantify."

It's not that difficult to Google for poll results:

Pre-election: "As concerns around the state of the economy and inflation continue, about eight-in-ten registered voters (81%) say the economy will be very important to their vote in the 2024 presidential election." (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-t...)

Post-election: "Among 2024 voters, the state of the national economy and the level of inflation were seen as reasons to support Trump by double digits." (https://navigatorresearch.org/2024-post-election-survey-the-...)

There's plenty of other polling data from the November 2024 election. What is it that people are finding it difficult to quantify or qualify?

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#28

Post by 8note »

theandrewbailey wrote: post #14
gigatexal wrote: post #4

So be it. But electing Trump to fix the economy is like opting to have the Joker operate on you instead of a competent doctor because you’re sick of incumbent doctors and their shit…

I'd like to point out that 2019 was a very good year for the economy. It worked well the first time, so why not again?

it wasnt particularly different from 2015, but also, the things being done are very different now from in 2019

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#29

Post by lapcat »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #23
lapcat wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's extremely unlikely that this team, led by a U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, just messed up something obvious: https://www.lisep.org/team

It's likely the problems are all in the politico framing of it. U7 seems useful. U7 being 24% feels right-ish. That's on Ludwig. Implying that 24% is worse than normal when it's likely one of the best values we've had in decades? That's on Politico.

The article with authored by Eugene Ludwig, so I'm not sure there's any separate Politico framing.

Re: Voters were right about the economy

#30

Post by [deleted] »

tensor wrote: post #12

This is wildly misleading. You can argue that we should use a different metric, sure, but then you must look at all of history using that metric to compare "the economy now, to the economy before." The data was not wrong just because you choose to use a new metric. The data would be "wrong" if it was collected in a way that introduced errors.

[deleted]
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