20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says • Hacker News Board

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#21

Post by pkulak » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:38 PM UTC

Molitor5901 wrote: post #16

kevmo314 wrote: post #4

> The buyout offer entitles federal employees to stop working more or less immediately and continue to be paid through Sept. 30. > The federal workforce's normal attrition rate is about 6% a year, meaning some of those who've taken the buyout may have been planning to leave government service anyway. Wow, talk about an amazing deal if you already happened to be planning on leaving...

I would not leave. Getting into the federal system was hard before, it's going to be near impossible now. For people who are not AI experts, engineers, doctors, etc. the federal government offers pay and benefits unparalleled to anything those same people would find in the private sector. Not to mention the job protections that really don't exist in any other private sector American company.

Yes... the job protections.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#22

Post by Molitor5901 » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:38 PM UTC

bilekas wrote: post #6

kevmo314 wrote: post #4

> The buyout offer entitles federal employees to stop working more or less immediately and continue to be paid through Sept. 30. > The federal workforce's normal attrition rate is about 6% a year, meaning some of those who've taken the buyout may have been planning to leave government service anyway. Wow, talk about an amazing deal if you already happened to be planning on leaving...

> Critics argue the offer is illegal, there's no real guarantee people will get paid out, and it's something Congress would need to authorize. Give then history of this particular admistration & business', I personally wouldn't be too confident in actually getting paid up to Sept.

[flagged]

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#23

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:39 PM UTC

simple10 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that annual attrition rate is 6% according to the article. I hadn't considered that before. The buyouts could end up costing more than they save if the only people who take it were the ones already planning on leaving. But maybe the argument is if enough people take it before the March budget deadline, then each departments budget can be proportionately reduced in the next cycle. Does anyone know the…

[deleted]

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#24

Post by Molitor5901 » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:39 PM UTC

manbart wrote: post #2

Doubt it... You'd be a fool to think you'd actually get the money

[flagged]

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#25

Post by csa » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:39 PM UTC

techapple wrote: post #3

Interesting they say their goal is 5-10% when normal attrition is six percent, that means essentially their goal is -6 to 4%

> Interesting they say their goal is 5-10% when normal attrition is six percent, that means essentially their goal is -6 to 4%

Basically, yes.

If they had worked within the existing VSIP (voluntary separation) and VERA (early retirement) systems, maybe by tweaking things like max payouts, they could have almost guaranteed 10%+ by September, imho.

The haphazard and non-standard way they’ve gone about it, however, makes me think that they will be at the low end of their range.

The other possible explanations are:

- they don’t really intend to pay those who resign (e.g., via admin leave status and then having a furlough in March)

- their ultimate goal is to have people not take the deal so that they can just fire with impunity. Imho, this type of reduction will only work for folks on probation (who, imho, are the only ones who should actually consider taking the resignation offer).

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#26

Post by s3r3nity » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:40 PM UTC

sampton wrote: post #9

20k represents 1%. The target is 5-10%. The messaging is 100-200k federal layoff is coming.

These tend to work through in stages: fastest ones to accept were already looking, and next up are those that are on the fence, and so on...

The 8-month buyout offer is significantly better than the one-time offer from Clinton in the 90's [1], even adjusting for inflation, so I'd expect that there's a large group of individuals & families that are just taking the time to evaluate the decision.

[https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-the-buyo...]

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#27

Post by biofox » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:41 PM UTC

simple10 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that annual attrition rate is 6% according to the article. I hadn't considered that before. The buyouts could end up costing more than they save if the only people who take it were the ones already planning on leaving. But maybe the argument is if enough people take it before the March budget deadline, then each departments budget can be proportionately reduced in the next cycle. Does anyone know the…

Without wanting to mud sling, this has not gone through the usual oversight and review committees that something like this usually would, so I suspect it hasn't been planned out and costed (much like other recent policy announcements). When "move fast and break things" meets public finance.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#28

Post by wbl » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:41 PM UTC

simple10 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that annual attrition rate is 6% according to the article. I hadn't considered that before. The buyouts could end up costing more than they save if the only people who take it were the ones already planning on leaving. But maybe the argument is if enough people take it before the March budget deadline, then each departments budget can be proportionately reduced in the next cycle. Does anyone know the…

I'm going to try not to mud sling but looking at the managerial history of the people involved does not make taking erratic pointless action a total surprise.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#29

Post by dboreham » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:41 PM UTC

simple10 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that annual attrition rate is 6% according to the article. I hadn't considered that before. The buyouts could end up costing more than they save if the only people who take it were the ones already planning on leaving. But maybe the argument is if enough people take it before the March budget deadline, then each departments budget can be proportionately reduced in the next cycle. Does anyone know the…

Not sure if this is mud but you're analyzing this as if it should make sense. It doesn't need to and doesn't because it's a performance art piece.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#30

Post by varsketiz » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:42 PM UTC

tombert wrote: post #19

aurareturn wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, talk about an amazing deal if you already happened to be planning on leaving... I'm guessing the vast majority who take the deal were already planning to leave? So we're wasting tax payer money giving them 8 months severance when it could have been 0.

I also suspect that there really isn't nearly as much "waste" here as Musk is alleging, so we are going to be forced to re-hire people, while still paying a ton of workers for 8 months of no work. This doesn't seem "efficient" to me, but "efficient" is a word that doesn't actually mean anything without context, which they don't provide.

Well, it depends on what goals Trump and Musk consider worthwhile. Just hypothetically, if they dont consider healthcare for all a worthwhile goal - possibly every dollar spent on Obamacare is waste from their perspective.

I think they will find a lot of waste - question is if people in the USA will agree.