21–30 of 31 posts
Someone talk me down here, genuinely. Combine this with the other tariffs, killing green manufacturing and the chips act and infrastructure bills, threatening our allies, a freeze on all federal grants and loans (a couple hours ago, if you aren't keeping up), etc... how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy? Tech is a significant portion of our market. How could destroying our ability to source t…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy? In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities. > How could destroying our ability to source the most advanced hardware It won't. Taiwan depends on us.…
> In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities. Actually its the opposite. In the long term it incentivizes manufacturing chips in the US. Domestic manufacturing has bipartisan support (see Biden's CHIPS bill) and ob…
The problem is that it takes 5 years from the time ground is broken to the time an advanced fab is producing chips. In the meantime you decimate domestic industries that were dependent on these Taiwanese chips.
this gotta crash nvidia more than deepseek...
Interestingly, it's not, which means the market doesn't believe he'll actually do it. Personally, I think they may have a very rude awakening in the near future.
Someone talk me down here, genuinely. Combine this with the other tariffs, killing green manufacturing and the chips act and infrastructure bills, threatening our allies, a freeze on all federal grants and loans (a couple hours ago, if you aren't keeping up), etc... how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy? Tech is a significant portion of our market. How could destroying our ability to source t…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities. Actually its the opposite. In the long term it incentivizes manufacturing chips in the US. Domestic manufacturing has bipartisan support (see Biden's CHIPS bill) and ob…
How quickly do you think that manufacturers could set up American fab plants? Domestic chip production on the level of TSMC is several years out even if all available resources were directed toward it now.
They're not particularly behind TSMC. The issue is one of costs - TSMC is cheaper. If Trump hits them with tariffs, suddenly it's no longer cheaper than fabbing with Intel.
Whether Intel has the capacity is another story.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How quickly do you think that manufacturers could set up American fab plants? Domestic chip production on the level of TSMC is several years out even if all available resources were directed toward it now.
You are aware that Intel has fabs, right? They're not particularly behind TSMC. The issue is one of costs - TSMC is cheaper. If Trump hits them with tariffs, suddenly it's no longer cheaper than fabbing with Intel. Whether Intel has the capacity is another story.
If Trump's goal is to make imported chips unprofitable, then he's going to push America backwards. Even Intel doesn't use Intel's fabs for high performance or high efficiency designs at this point.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are aware that Intel has fabs, right? They're not particularly behind TSMC. The issue is one of costs - TSMC is cheaper. If Trump hits them with tariffs, suddenly it's no longer cheaper than fabbing with Intel. Whether Intel has the capacity is another story.
Intel's fabs aren't competitive, period. They might compete when 18A gets taped out, but that's been in development hell for years now and is struggling to leave the sampling stage. TSMC has a track record of profitable EULV yields and can even charge competitors for fab access. I say that as an Intel apologist. If Trump's goal is to make imported chips unprofitable, then he's going to push America backwards. Even In…
If there's a 100% tariff on Taiwan made products, I assure you, Intel will be deemed competitive. Apple isn't going to double their BOM cost just to eke out another 10-20% in performance.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Intel's fabs aren't competitive, period. They might compete when 18A gets taped out, but that's been in development hell for years now and is struggling to leave the sampling stage. TSMC has a track record of profitable EULV yields and can even charge competitors for fab access. I say that as an Intel apologist. If Trump's goal is to make imported chips unprofitable, then he's going to push America backwards. Even In…
> Intel's fabs aren't competitive, period. If there's a 100% tariff on Taiwan made products, I assure you, Intel will be deemed competitive. Apple isn't going to double their BOM cost just to eke out another 10-20% in performance.
Don't forget that Apple's leadership is basically glued to Trump's hip for this administration. They'll be getting closer to the 25% rate for sure, and that's absolutely feasible with the margins Apple makes.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Intel's fabs aren't competitive, period. If there's a 100% tariff on Taiwan made products, I assure you, Intel will be deemed competitive. Apple isn't going to double their BOM cost just to eke out another 10-20% in performance.
Apple is one of the only companies in modern existence that could take a 2x hit to their SOC price and still turn an enormous profit on their hardware alone. There are non-Intel options Apple might consider like the TSMC Arizona plant, but Apple would only pick Intel as a fab partner over Tim Cook's dead body. Don't forget that Apple's leadership is basically glued to Trump's hip for this administration. They'll be g…