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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

vincentschmalbach.com

21–30 of 431 posts

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#21

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

> The only realy reason to join a startup is that you either believe in the "mission" or that you believe it will bring you joy to work in that way.

Or the startup was a stepping stone in your career. Big Tech wouldn't hire you, b/c you have a different background, so you work at a startup to develop experience and then switch to Big Tech.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#22

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

Are you able to say more on your startup story, through the exit?

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#24

IMHO building startup became a status symbol which means that the payment in respect for making a courageous adventure is lost and commoditized. We are slowly seeing the same for academia. Point 2 resonates with me. Risk adjusted it is very unlikely that one will make a reasonable salary doing startups. So it is conviction and heart that needs to drive it. For me, the main issue is that every time I voice the idea ab…

I highly agree. And I think in practice, what is driven by curiosity and passion ends up being a better product. I think part of the reason why is that all over social media and the internet there are gurus telling people "you can be the next to be rich and you deserve it". But that's the wrong motivation to have ingrained in every potential founder.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#25

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

The other bit here is that hacker news attracted a lot more engineers (vs more entrepreneurial-leaning folk) in the intervening time - and engineers never really made bank on startups. Even in successful startups the engineers are typically lower on the pay-out ranking than the less-technical founders and the VCs...

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#26
I had one product that took off, made more money than at any of my previous (big-tech) jobs, and I thought the tales were true. If you work hard enough, catch a lucky wave and have the skills to ride it, you're free.

The product peaked, and then very quickly dropped to zero in about two years, while I tried everything to prevent going out of business.

Back at the bottom, a year or two of aimless wandering, I figured, well, I've seen the light, I know how this dance needs to be danced, I can dance it one more time.

I've since had half a dozen attempts not even produce a handful of accounts (or in the better cases, paid accounts), and it's simply not sustainable.

I was finally getting to a point where I felt ready to give up last year, and decided to try one last time or get back into a regular job. The problem being, "getting back" now means that I am 20 years older and more than likely _not a great fit_ for many of the roles out there.

So, for now, I am once again knuckle-deep in a new product, about to have a first customer this week (if they sign up) and some light on the horizon.

Yet, even if I manage to surpass all the possible stretch-goals on growth I have set this year, it will still pay considerably less than minimum wage, and that's if everything (and more) works out within this and the next year or so. On occasional consulting gigs I charge $$$, and I don't even dare to compare that to what these Saas/products bring in, is just ... sad. And I hear someone clacking on their keyboard already, responding...

The usual reaction to a post like mine will and used to be: well, you've got the wrong product, audience, or both. But all I want to say after doing this for 20 years now, is: that's the default. If you're not starting from a large-enough platform, your only way to success is to be literally "failing" upwards, in baby steps, turtle-speed, and that only results in success if you can somehow sustain doing that long enough.

The default is that nothing works out. People love to skip over this and always feel it doesn't apply to them and their idea. It will fail. The game is not to make a great product, the game is to figure out how to not go under while waiting for and/or constantly provoking your lucky break.

You can get lucky, and if you try long enough and often enough, you at least stand somehwat of a (very, very, very slim) chance. And, then, even if you do, all that luck is very brief and temporary and you'll be thirsty waiting for the next strike to stay above water. There is no "I made it" — there's only "I'm safe for a second, but what do I do next" in the very best of cases.

All that said, I believe it is totally worth the life experience. Life is short, it's a noteworthy thing to go through. But after a decade of failing, it'll quietly turn into a question of character, responsibility, psychological or social issues and general life-planning skills rather than a question of "do you want it hard enough to succeed".

Life is short.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#27
I see this a lot in the local startup community too. There's a lot of "ecosystem" feeders who survive on the supply of newbies, but the old experienced founders have mostly either exited and retired, want nothing to do with the startup scene any more, or have just given up and got a job.

The buzz from 10-15 years ago just isn't there any more.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#28
I'm not sure that there's a startup winter at all, it looks like a web browser tech winter to me. AFAIK YC also changed their focus and now are looking for physical things much more - like supersonic jets.

There is only so much you can do with organizing information and entertainment through HTML and JS and make a profit of it. Maybe there will be a nice whiplash gold rush for making the web great again as this pile of garbage doesn't inspire anyone anymore.

That will happen as soon as a new business model alternative to what caused the enshittification appears. Alternatively, maybe a new tech will emerge that will offer freedoms and possibilities similar to the early days of the web.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#29

I had one product that took off, made more money than at any of my previous (big-tech) jobs, and I thought the tales were true. If you work hard enough, catch a lucky wave and have the skills to ride it, you're free. The product peaked, and then very quickly dropped to zero in about two years, while I tried everything to prevent going out of business. Back at the bottom, a year or two of aimless wandering, I figured,…

This resonates. Trying to get back into a tech job and they all need Kubernetes experience because microservices. I've spent 10 years developing MVPs that never scaled past 100 users, let alone anywhere large enough to need K8s.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#30
It is insane I have to say this, but this quite literally is the best time ever to start a startup.

The sheer leverage that AI provides founders today is simply astounding. I have leveraged AI tools to build things I would never have been able to build just several years ago.

The case in point would be it is now extremely easy to create Chrome plugins that automate aspects of my business simply by asking Claude to do so.

Another example I can point to is the use of GPT to create documentation for government tenders. Many of these tenders need supporting documents that, quite frankly, I would not have been able to create on my own. Everything from how to create documentation around modern slavery and supply chain audits, to indigenous inclusion. This is stuff they simply don't teach you at university.

We are living in a golden age where a solo founder can create so much value on their own.

This is not to say I'm not worried for the future, I very much am. I'm worried about an economic routing of the middle class caused by AI taking white-collar jobs...

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