I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research • Hacker News Board

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#21

Post by Animats » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:27 PM UTC

salynchnew wrote: post #13

soniman wrote: post #7

38 seems young to quit. Is there another story here?

Given the number of ultrarich and powerful people that already hate the Hindenberg folks... my guess would be that there is some calculus here about the incoming U.S. presidential administration's enmity towards whistleblowers and their prior statements about changing libel laws in the U.S.

Um, yes.

Starting next week, it's open season on suckers. It's going to be like the glory days of the Tel Aviv binary options scammers, who at one time were 40% of the Israeli finance sector and had good political connections.[1] Crypto deregulation is coming. No more CFPB enforcement! No more SEC enforcement!

There are still people who haven't lost money in crypto yet who can be targeted. They're all little people. No one will help them. Just pay off some influencers and start up your scam.[2]

[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/topic/binary-options-fraud/

[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/memecoins/

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#22

Post by n144q » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:27 PM UTC

proxyon wrote: post #9

soniman wrote: post #7

38 seems young to quit. Is there another story here?

Off the top of my head the reporting about Block - CashApp was disgraceful and Hindenburg got sued for it. Not sure how that's going to play out with disbanding the "company."

I don't think Hindenburg is scared of being sued, otherwise they wouldn't have been in the business in the first place. Their investigations are extremely thorough, with everything fully documented, mostly from public records, for the specific purpose that if/when they show up in court, they can be confident of the basis of their findings.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/adani-group-threate...

P.S. where did you see Block suing Hindenburg? The closest thing I can find is 'Block said it intended to “explore legal action” against Hindenburg, who sought to “deceive and confuse” Block investors to “profit from a declined stock price.”' which is just PR speak

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#23

Post by julianpye » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:31 PM UTC

In an upcoming age of oligarchy, regulation will be adapted to suit business owners. As an example, it seems that Gautam Adani is friendly with Trump.

What will be the impact on the SEC? What are future scenarios of fraud enabled by weaker regulations?

But this is a regretable, but wise move. Love the fact that he linked a DJ set.

Godspeed, Hindenburg folks! I started to really appreciate your work, when I read Dan McCrum and the other Alphaville writers at the FT.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#24

Post by SapporoChris » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:31 PM UTC

dgfitz wrote: post #16

bihla wrote: post #14

Did he... link the wrong URL at the end of the post? I thought for sure it was going to be some sort of heartfelt speech, or motivational message, or something. But it's an instrumental DJ set which seems totally out of left field

> P.S. If you are chasing something you think you want or need, or are doubting whether you are enough, take a minute and give this a listen. It had a big impact on me at a pivotal time. He shared something that helped him at a pivotal time. Your expectations are your own. :)

The right music at the right time can be transformative.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#25

Post by cushychicken » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:34 PM UTC

steveBK123 wrote: post #5

ilamont wrote: post #2

Has anyone else publicly copied the Hindenburg investigation/financial model? It's not proprietary AFAIK.

It's a hard business to make money in. Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists. Plus the last 2 years we've seen 20+% market moves upwards. Despite it being a necessity for functioning markets, when you are short, seemingly everyone is against you - business management, regulators, media, etc. Not surprised to see them bow out. Chanos did so…

I’d wager a big part of how they make money is as SEC whistleblowers. It’s not as huge of money as shorting is - but it’s typically a single digit percentage of the recovered fines. Considering these guys nailed a company that defrauded people of $3 BILLION dollars, they’d net $30 mil from turning that company in even if the payout is only 1%.

The SEC has a policy of paying out part of recovered fines as bounties to whistleblowers to align incentives. If your company is doing something sketchy, you get a payout by doing the right thing.

I’m not a lawyer but I think that mechanism works just as well if you’re an external reporter of fraud. SEC makes money and pays you for your diligent forensic auditing.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#26

Post by motohagiography » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:34 PM UTC

Hindenburg Research and Muddy Waters are like heroes to me. It's one thing to have an opinion about corruption, another to maybe be a whistleblower or activist, but to take levered bets against corruption and win is next level.

Almost every time I see a dark pattern in tech I think there should be an opportunity to bet against it. Certain companies I can think of who appear to be faking their MAU numbers with "urgent notices" to login to obviously abandoned accounts, or who won't let you close an account even though there's no way to get the balance out to close it, both seem like opportunities. Still others, who appear to gamify their notifications to drive DAU numbers seem as bad as twitter's pre-musk bot problem.

part of the case for breaking up some of the platform companies is that they protect some shitty practices from the market by having a behemoth to bail out products that wouldn't survive on their own, and they create a huge barrier to market entry against desirable products.

the page seems to be hugged to death, but whatever the case, congratulations. they are, and should be an inspiration to others.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#27

Post by handfuloflight » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:36 PM UTC

tines wrote: post #8

steveBK123 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a hard business to make money in. Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists. Plus the last 2 years we've seen 20+% market moves upwards. Despite it being a necessity for functioning markets, when you are short, seemingly everyone is against you - business management, regulators, media, etc. Not surprised to see them bow out. Chanos did so…

> Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists Also, with shorting the best you can do is double your money (if the stock goes to 0), while you can lose an unlimited amount (as there’s no cap on a rising stock); whereas with going long, you can only lose all your money (again, if it goes to 0), but you can gain an unlimited amount.

See put options.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#28

Post by paxys » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:38 PM UTC

soniman wrote: post #7

38 seems young to quit. Is there another story here?

There is a very fine line between investigative journalism and market manipulation. They treaded it pretty carefully so far, but were bound to slip up sooner or later. Especially now that they are prominent enough that HFT bots are instantly shorting every company they mention in new posts. Quitting while they are ahead is a good move.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#29

Post by dgfitz » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:39 PM UTC

bihla wrote: post #17

dgfitz wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> P.S. If you are chasing something you think you want or need, or are doubting whether you are enough, take a minute and give this a listen. It had a big impact on me at a pivotal time. He shared something that helped him at a pivotal time. Your expectations are your own. :)

Ha I guess that's fair. Were you expecting a DJ set?

I did have a guess that it was musical. I did not guess it was of the genre haha.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#30

Post by paxys » Wed, Jan 15, 2025, 11:44 PM UTC

Getting out while they are ahead is a smart move, especially considering multiple governments have started to take a closer look at their shorting tactics.