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Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

reuters.com

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Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#21

Post by xg15 »

Everything else aside, this is an absolutely fantastic development and I really hope the ceasefire holds and all hostages are released.

I just fear this will cause western media and politicians to and declare the crisis to be over (after it had began on Oct. 7, of course absolutely out of the blue and without any context...) and go back to pretending everything is back to normal. Never mind that Gaza is still in ruins, the west bank is still being annexed, Israel still has the dual role of "all authority, no obligations" over the Palestinians, while making it pretty clear they have no vision for them at all, apart from "maybe they just vanish into thin air tomorrow".

And never mind that Israel still has a fundamentalist, authoritarian government that is actively at work undermining democratic structures and civil rights even inside the state - that too with no word of objection from its allies.

We'll see where all of that goes.

I also found Trump's signalling in the whole issue odd. His base and his cabinet is full of the most hard-line pro-israel figures imaginable, but then he goes forward and quotes Jeffrey Sachs and ostensibly pressures Netanyahu into accepting the ceasefire.

Is this just his usual "appear unpredictable by all means" spiel or does he have a strategy there?

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#22

Post by verdverm »

steviedotboston wrote: post #15
coob wrote: post #2

Are either Israelis or Gazans more secure than when this war began? What has either side achieved?

Hamas has been considerably weakened. Their arsenal of rockets and weapons is depleted. At the beginning of the war thousands of rockets were being shot into Israel and now there are very few and the ones that are are quite crude. Hezbollah entered the war immediately and said the only way they would exit is if Hamas exists. Israel retaliated, killed their leader, decimated their forces, and negotiated a ceasefire th…

Israel has likely also created multiple generations of anger and hate against themselves. They may have reduced the likelihood of another Oct 7 in the near term, but 50 years is not something I would count on

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#23

Post by null_deref »

coob wrote: post #2

Are either Israelis or Gazans more secure than when this war began? What has either side achieved?

Israel is definitely more secure, because of the on front confrontation with Iran and its proxies.

1. Hezbollah suffered heavy blows and lost significant political and military power in Lebanon. Didn’t retaliate nearly as heavy as feared.

2. For the first time Israel struck with its military directly in Iran and showed real abilities by destroying most of Iran’s air defenses.

3. As a result of the two points above and other reasons, there was significant shift of powers in Syria which led to Assad regime collapse (significant amount of supplies to Iran’s main proxy Hezbollah went through Syria), but the affect of the regime change in Syria is yet to be determined.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#24

Post by nick_ »

bpodgursky wrote: post #9
coob wrote: post #2

Are either Israelis or Gazans more secure than when this war began? What has either side achieved?

Can you concretely suggest what each side should have done at some point in time, to avoid being where we are now? I feel like you're making a rhetorical statement that's hard to map to specific actions.

Oh please. Israelis could have voted in a different party/leader that would have taken another path. West Bank settlement expansions could have been halted and reversed (to a sensible degree of course). These are bread and butter suggestions that everyone who thinks honestly about this conflict sees clearly.

There are of course many more suggestions I didn't state. To pretend that there was just no way to avoid this is shameful.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#25

Post by null_deref »

throwaway7783 wrote: post #20
null_deref wrote: post #6

Yes, eventually. I have tears in my eyes. Enduring more than a year with a preposterous populist government and endless deaths, this nightmare is finally over.

100% support ceasefire. 100% agree Israel overdid it. 100% support Hamas must cease to exist. Don't leave that last part out

I agree

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#26

Post by Cyph0n »

steviedotboston wrote: post #15
coob wrote: post #2

Are either Israelis or Gazans more secure than when this war began? What has either side achieved?

Hamas has been considerably weakened. Their arsenal of rockets and weapons is depleted. At the beginning of the war thousands of rockets were being shot into Israel and now there are very few and the ones that are are quite crude. Hezbollah entered the war immediately and said the only way they would exit is if Hamas exists. Israel retaliated, killed their leader, decimated their forces, and negotiated a ceasefire th…

Perhaps weakened them from an equipment & infrastructure standpoint - along with the rest of Gaza - but not from a manpower standpoint: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-14/blinken-s...

The right way to fight an independence movement is to either do so from within/in a more targeted fashion, or barring that, meet their demands in some shape or form. Escalating the violence to the point where you’re destroying and displacing a people might settle things down in the short term, but the movement will not die, and will more than likely grow.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#27

Post by xg15 »

steviedotboston wrote: post #15
coob wrote: post #2

Are either Israelis or Gazans more secure than when this war began? What has either side achieved?

Hamas has been considerably weakened. Their arsenal of rockets and weapons is depleted. At the beginning of the war thousands of rockets were being shot into Israel and now there are very few and the ones that are are quite crude. Hezbollah entered the war immediately and said the only way they would exit is if Hamas exists. Israel retaliated, killed their leader, decimated their forces, and negotiated a ceasefire th…

Good points there. Still not sure how much the ouster of Assad was connected with the war (though no doubt that the weakening of Hezbollah must have contributed a lot to it) but it definitely changed the playing field.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#28

Post by flumpcakes »

verdverm wrote: post #22
steviedotboston wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hamas has been considerably weakened. Their arsenal of rockets and weapons is depleted. At the beginning of the war thousands of rockets were being shot into Israel and now there are very few and the ones that are are quite crude. Hezbollah entered the war immediately and said the only way they would exit is if Hamas exists. Israel retaliated, killed their leader, decimated their forces, and negotiated a ceasefire th…

Israel has likely also created multiple generations of anger and hate against themselves. They may have reduced the likelihood of another Oct 7 in the near term, but 50 years is not something I would count on

[flagged]

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#29

Post by YZF »

9283409232 wrote: post #19
ars wrote: post #4

I credit Trump's pressure on Hamas - Hamas eventually softened a lot of their positions because they realized they had no choice. And I wish Biden had done a better job of supporting Israel, this war could have ended a lot sooner if Hamas had realized that the entire world was pressuring them to surrender. Instead the message got diluted with support for Palestinians, which Hamas interpreted as support for themselves…

> Did you hear a single call by any country for Hamas to surrender? I didn't. US, UK, France, Germany, Italy in a joint message: https://it.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-on-israel/ Spain: https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanchez-spain-humanita... Italy, France, Germany ask for EU sanctions to force Hamas surrender: https://www.reuters.com/world/italy-france-germany-call-ad-h... Secretary of State calls out other…

I'm not seeing the call to surrender in your links. I'm seeing sanctions. I think parent is asking for explicit calls that Hamas surrenders (i.e. lays down their arms and returns the hostages). Not a ceasefire, a surrender.

Re: Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza

#30

Post by hmcq6 »

steviedotboston wrote: post #15
coob wrote: post #2

Are either Israelis or Gazans more secure than when this war began? What has either side achieved?

Hamas has been considerably weakened. Their arsenal of rockets and weapons is depleted. At the beginning of the war thousands of rockets were being shot into Israel and now there are very few and the ones that are are quite crude. Hezbollah entered the war immediately and said the only way they would exit is if Hamas exists. Israel retaliated, killed their leader, decimated their forces, and negotiated a ceasefire th…

[flagged]
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