AI will be dead in five years • Hacker News Board

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#21

Post by alephnerd » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:19 PM UTC

IshKebab wrote: post #17

brookst wrote: post #4

Yep. We rarely talk about “the internet” because everything is the internet. We even more rarely talk about transistors, outside of tech enthusiast circles. And electrons get even less attention. AI is an ingredient that will power products and experiences, and we will talk about those.

I doubt it. A recommender system is not "obviously" AI - it could easily be just static lists, or based on viewing counts (wouldn't be surprised given how bad Netflix's algorithm is). LLMs and gen AI are totally different. They are very clearly AI. You're literally having a conversation with a computer! I don't think people will stop calling it AI.

30 years ago, graph traversal algorithms using weights and min-max were treated as AI.

And recommender systems were/are absolutely a ML/AI subfield.

> I don't think people will stop calling it AI

That already did in the above two cases, as well as plenty of other cases in the entire ML/AI world.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#22

Post by a3w » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:20 PM UTC

keybored wrote: post #6

But is this still true considering LLMs? Is it possible that LLMs could save AI? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42431690

We have had two years of "breakthrough" LLMs and every company now shipping it makes mediocre products. The article is exactly about "LLMs won't be AI in 5 years".

Also, we have been using if/else and math as AI systems for decades. Wikipedia lists of lot of ideas under AI. Every calculator was AI, since it took a job (calculating) from a human, when it was invented. Says wiki, not (only) my opinion.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#23

Post by anshulbhide » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:21 PM UTC

Yes. Most SaaS tools are just CRUD operations on databases. But no-one talks about databases as a magical tool anymore - even thought thats what they were in the 1990s with Oracle vs. Sybase vs. Informix vs. Ingres.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#24

Post by MPSimmons » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:22 PM UTC

DebtDeflation wrote: post #3

>I doubt we will talk a lot about AI in five years because AI will be an integral part of how people search for and interact with information. Or, if we talk about AI in five years, it will most likely refer to different technologies and solutions than what we denote as AI in 2024. It's the latter. In 5 years, what we consider to be AI today will just be standard product features and the AI being discussed will be so…

I also take your perspective.

During the last AI winter, we relied on things like Bayesian filtering to categorize spam without a lot of ado, and it was a product of the previous AI surge.

Transformer based inference and generation are already useful, and there's no going back from that, even if the architecture will never get us artificial super intelligence.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#25

Post by jwarden » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:22 PM UTC

alephnerd wrote: post #14

rkozik1989 wrote: post #9

Ah the classic make a bold prediction to grab headlines because it doesn't matter if you're right or wrong, memory's are short.

Read the article. It's talking about how what we can "AI" today will be treated as bog standard - the same way this happened with Recommender systems 3-4 years ago, Neural networks 4-7 years ago, statistical learning (eg. SVM) 7-10 years ago, etc. The title is a reference to a fairly prominent article about "Big Data" that was based on the same premise.

Read the article but I still think the criticism of the title is valid. The claim is that the way we talk about AI will be different in 5 years, not that AI will be dead. Likewise recommender systems, Neural Networks, and Statistical Learning are not certainly not dead. It's an abuse of a term to grab clicks.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#26

Post by a3w » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:22 PM UTC

thiago_fm wrote: post #5

Good point. In 5 years we will have a different name for a new hype related to AI :-)

- AAI - Advanced AI

- AI 2.0

- AI 4.0 (Industrial revolution, again, so let's use higher numbers)

- WebAI 5.0 (skipping enough numbers to now be sure it will be _novel_)

Any more ideas? No wrong answers, in five years no one will look at this list.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#27

Post by bboygravity » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:23 PM UTC

asdev wrote: post #18

AI right now reminds me exactly of the blockchain/crypto hype. People trying to apply blockchain to everything, calling something a "blockchain" based solution. However, blockchain based solutions never panned out, as it was an attempt to apply technologies to use cases rather than solving actual problems. Now when you say "blockchain based X", people will scoff at you. AI will follow the same path I believe, as LLMs…

With Bitcoin at 100k+ USD and LLMs and generative AI being used daily by tons of people including myself, your comment makes 0 sense to me.

The only reason people will stop talking about them is because they've become completely normal in their daily lives IMO.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#28

Post by alephnerd » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:24 PM UTC

jwarden wrote: post #25

alephnerd wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read the article. It's talking about how what we can "AI" today will be treated as bog standard - the same way this happened with Recommender systems 3-4 years ago, Neural networks 4-7 years ago, statistical learning (eg. SVM) 7-10 years ago, etc. The title is a reference to a fairly prominent article about "Big Data" that was based on the same premise.

Read the article but I still think the criticism of the title is valid. The claim is that the way we talk about AI will be different in 5 years, not that AI will be dead. Likewise recommender systems, Neural Networks, and Statistical Learning are not certainly not dead. It's an abuse of a term to grab clicks.

I strongly disagree - especially because the title is itself a reference to "Big Data Will Be Dead In 5 Years" which itself talked about this same phenomenon, albeit for Data Engineering.

Titles are not arguments. Some people may want them to be, but they are not.

Engaging with a title just distracts a discussion from the core thesis of a post.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#29

Post by kittikitti » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:24 PM UTC

asdev wrote: post #18

AI right now reminds me exactly of the blockchain/crypto hype. People trying to apply blockchain to everything, calling something a "blockchain" based solution. However, blockchain based solutions never panned out, as it was an attempt to apply technologies to use cases rather than solving actual problems. Now when you say "blockchain based X", people will scoff at you. AI will follow the same path I believe, as LLMs…

Blockchain and crypto need a solid technical understanding just to interface with it. With ChatGPT and AI, it's accessible to people with basic literacy, and with voice, even that's optional. I do see how these emerging technologies are similar but they also have key differences.

Re: AI will be dead in five years

#30

Post by kittikitti » Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 4:30 PM UTC

a3w wrote: post #22

keybored wrote: post #6

But is this still true considering LLMs? Is it possible that LLMs could save AI? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42431690

We have had two years of "breakthrough" LLMs and every company now shipping it makes mediocre products. The article is exactly about "LLMs won't be AI in 5 years". Also, we have been using if/else and math as AI systems for decades. Wikipedia lists of lot of ideas under AI. Every calculator was AI, since it took a job (calculating) from a human, when it was invented. Says wiki, not (only) my opinion.

CEO's have historically blamed AI and despite the massive layoffs, it seems like you're also attributing the reduction in quality to AI.