Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
21–30 of 34 posts
Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#22An important point from this talk: The better the models are at reasoning, the less predictable they become. This is analogous to top chess engines which make surprising moves that even human super grandmasters can't always understand. Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if superintelligence takes control). Link to the full talk & the time he talks about this: https://youtu.be/1yvBqasHLZs?si=3M6eZCQtXnW2tSUd&t=86…
I don’t think that’s broadly true with chess. Did you mean go?
Ilya says in the talk that chess ai is unpredictable even to grand masters.
Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#23if you don't want to dip your toe in the festering pile of crap that is X: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yvBqasHLZs
I appreciate the link, but the tone of this comment is very un-HN. I don’t even see people talk that way about 4chan, which one can argue would deserve it more.
Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#24if you don't want to dip your toe in the festering pile of crap that is X: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yvBqasHLZs
I appreciate the link, but the tone of this comment is very un-HN. I don’t even see people talk that way about 4chan, which one can argue would deserve it more.
The content on 4chan is almost indistinguishable from X.
Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if we let superintelligence take control) As opposed to the predictable future we've had for the past few decades?
I think it's a matter of magnitude and semantics. It was quite predictable that the Internet would take off, become ubiquitous, and highly influential. If superintelligence emerges soon, we may not even know which technologies will emerge and how many will be unleashed in the next 2 decades. ADDED: Examples of some concrete predictions: (1980) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave_(Toffler_book) (1995) https:/…
"What is behind a dynamic super-intelligent tiling manager implemented in auto-regressive LSTM pre-training models?"
Suggestive pathways, he replied.
Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#26An important point from this talk: The better the models are at reasoning, the less predictable they become. This is analogous to top chess engines which make surprising moves that even human super grandmasters can't always understand. Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if superintelligence takes control). Link to the full talk & the time he talks about this: https://youtu.be/1yvBqasHLZs?si=3M6eZCQtXnW2tSUd&t=86…
> Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if we let superintelligence take control) As opposed to the predictable future we've had for the past few decades?
To be fair, Ilya seems to have called the previous one pretty well!
Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#27An important point from this talk: The better the models are at reasoning, the less predictable they become. This is analogous to top chess engines which make surprising moves that even human super grandmasters can't always understand. Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if superintelligence takes control). Link to the full talk & the time he talks about this: https://youtu.be/1yvBqasHLZs?si=3M6eZCQtXnW2tSUd&t=86…
Is it just: smarter people look less predictable from a point of view of dumber people. (i.e., there may a perfectly good reason for a smarter person to behave a certain way, it is just not immediately apparent to the dumber one)
Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#28Is there a transcript? The slides are very clear and useful already but I guess there is more.
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Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
I appreciate the link, but the tone of this comment is very un-HN. I don’t even see people talk that way about 4chan, which one can argue would deserve it more.
The content on 4chan is almost indistinguishable from X.
Ussername [does|does not] check out
Re: Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
#30Any recommendations for thinkers writing good analysis on the implications of superintelligence for society? Especially interested in positive takes that are well thought through. Are there any?
Ideally voices that don’t have a vested interest.
For example, give a superintelligence some money, tell it to start a company. Surely it’s going to quickly understand it needs to manipulate people to get them to do the things it wants, in the same way a kindergarten teacher has to “manipulate” the kids sometimes. Personally I can’t see how we’re not going to find ourselves in a power struggle with these things.
Does that make me an AI doomer party pooper? So far I haven’t found a coherent optimistic analysis. Just lots of very superficial “it will solve hard problems for us! Cure disease!”
It certainly could be that I haven’t looked hard enough. That’s why I’m asking.