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The Influence of Bell Labs

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Re: The Influence of Bell Labs

#21

Okay, I'm really in a sad mood, so: tell me there will be places like that, again, somewhere, ever ? We need this. Like, really, we need someone to have created the xerox part of the 21st century, somewhere about 20 years ago. I honestly though Google would be that - but apparently it's easier to fund R&D on "selling copying machines" than "selling ads". Maybe "selling ads" earn _too much_ money ? I don't know. I kno…

Hmm

There are companies that push many various technologies

Samsung conglomerate does everything, Intel does hard (semiconductor research, manufacturing) and soft (computer science/software) things

Maybe we're at the point where you need to specialize in one industry, so achieving various stuff like they did at Bell is harder?

Re: The Influence of Bell Labs

#22
I think the mythos of the Bell labs and other thinktanks of the Cold War era is overstated to some extent. https://greyenlightenment.com/2024/07/19/the-decline-of-cold...

These organizations employed too many people of relatively mediocre ability relative to output, leading to waste and eventual disbandment. Today's private sector companies in FAMNG+ are making bigger breakthroughs in AI, apps, self-driving cars, etc. with fewer people relative to population and more profits. This is due to more selective hiring and performance metrics. Yeah those people form the 60s were smart, but today's STEM whiz kids are probably lapping them.

Re: The Influence of Bell Labs

#23

Okay, I'm really in a sad mood, so: tell me there will be places like that, again, somewhere, ever ? We need this. Like, really, we need someone to have created the xerox part of the 21st century, somewhere about 20 years ago. I honestly though Google would be that - but apparently it's easier to fund R&D on "selling copying machines" than "selling ads". Maybe "selling ads" earn _too much_ money ? I don't know. I kno…

[dead]

Re: The Influence of Bell Labs

#25

Okay, I'm really in a sad mood, so: tell me there will be places like that, again, somewhere, ever ? We need this. Like, really, we need someone to have created the xerox part of the 21st century, somewhere about 20 years ago. I honestly though Google would be that - but apparently it's easier to fund R&D on "selling copying machines" than "selling ads". Maybe "selling ads" earn _too much_ money ? I don't know. I kno…

The secret hero of that time was the US government. I’m not talking about the MIC, which is still quite robust and more bad than good. I am speaking more broadly. If you had a practical PhD and were willing to show up at a place at 9:00, you could get a solid upper middle class job with the Feds where you couldn’t get fired unless you broke the law.

The government also has always kept academia afloat. It is a privilege afforded to professors to believe they do not work for the state, but they do.

Great government and academic jobs forced companies to create these labs where it was better to hire great people and “lose” some hours to them doing whatever they want (which was still often profitable enough) than have zero great people. Can you imagine Claude Shannon putting up with the stuff software engineers deal with today?

The other main change is that how to run big companies has been figured out well enough that “zero great people” is no longer a real survival issue for companies. In the 1970s you needed a research level of talent but most companies today don’t.

Re: The Influence of Bell Labs

#26

I think the mythos of the Bell labs and other thinktanks of the Cold War era is overstated to some extent. https://greyenlightenment.com/2024/07/19/the-decline-of-cold... These organizations employed too many people of relatively mediocre ability relative to output, leading to waste and eventual disbandment. Today's private sector companies in FAMNG+ are making bigger breakthroughs in AI, apps, self-driving cars, etc…

Off the top of my head: Shannon, Nyquist, Hamming. Lapping them you say.

Re: The Influence of Bell Labs

#27
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> honestly though Google would be that - but apparently it's easier to fund R&D on "selling copying machines" than "selling ads". Maybe "selling ads" earn _too much_ money ? I don't know. I'm pretty sure Google Brain was exactly what you are looking for: People like to think of DeepMind, but honestly, Brain pretty much had Bell Labs/PARCs strategy: they hired a bunch of brilliant people and told them to just "researc…

Right. And I'm sure that if I ever get in a better mood, I'll find that the current AI/LLM craze is good for _something_. Right now the world needs GWh batteries made of salt, cheap fusion from trash, telepathy, a cure for cancer and a vaccine for the common cold - but in the meantime, advertisers can generate photos for their ads, which is, _good_, I guess ?

Once we get superintelligence — some time next year I’d say — then we will have a tool to make all those dreams come true.

Re: The Influence of Bell Labs

#28

Okay, I'm really in a sad mood, so: tell me there will be places like that, again, somewhere, ever ? We need this. Like, really, we need someone to have created the xerox part of the 21st century, somewhere about 20 years ago. I honestly though Google would be that - but apparently it's easier to fund R&D on "selling copying machines" than "selling ads". Maybe "selling ads" earn _too much_ money ? I don't know. I kno…

The secret hero of that time was the US government. I’m not talking about the MIC, which is still quite robust and more bad than good. I am speaking more broadly. If you had a practical PhD and were willing to show up at a place at 9:00, you could get a solid upper middle class job with the Feds where you couldn’t get fired unless you broke the law. The government also has always kept academia afloat. It is a privile…

Something that just dawned on me is the downstream effects of United States’ policy regarding science during WWII and the Cold War. The Manhattan Project, NASA, the NSA and all of its contributions to mathematics and cryptography, ARPA, DARPA, and many other agencies and programs not only directly contributed to science, but they also helped form a scientific culture that affected not only government-ran and government-funded labs, but also private-sector labs, as people and ideas were exchanged throughout the years. It is a well-documented fact that Xerox PARC’s 1970’s culture was heavily influenced by ARPA’s 1960’s culture.

One of the things that has changed since the 1990s is the ending of the Cold War. The federal government still has national laboratories, DARPA, NASA, the NSF, etc. However, the general culture has changed. It’s not that technology isn’t revered; far from it. It’s just that “stopping Hitler,” “beating the Soviets,” and grand visions for society have been replaced with visions of creating lucrative businesses. I don’t hear about the Oppenheimers and von Neumanns of today’s world, but I hear plenty about Elon Musk and Sam Altman, not to disrespect what they have done (especially with the adoption of EVs and generative AI, respectively), but the latter names are successful businessmen, while the former names are successful scientists.

I don’t know what government labs are like, but I know that academia these days have high publication and fundraising pressures that inhibit curiosity-driven research, and I also know that industry these days is beholden to short-term results and pleasing shareholders, sometimes at the expense of the long-term and of society at large.

Re: The Influence of Bell Labs

#29

I think the mythos of the Bell labs and other thinktanks of the Cold War era is overstated to some extent. https://greyenlightenment.com/2024/07/19/the-decline-of-cold... These organizations employed too many people of relatively mediocre ability relative to output, leading to waste and eventual disbandment. Today's private sector companies in FAMNG+ are making bigger breakthroughs in AI, apps, self-driving cars, etc…

Off the top of my head: Shannon, Nyquist, Hamming. Lapping them you say.

I think my reading of your comment is: that's just wrong. And I tend to agree. The current STEM and FAANG activity is second order work in the main. I wouldn't hold AI work up as a paragon, myself. It's diverting from progress across a field.

I have hopes of a resurgence of operations research and linear optimisation as goods in themselves: we could be plotting more nuanced courses in dark waters of competing pressure. Decision systems support across many fields would remove subjective, politicised pressures.

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