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Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

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Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#21

Post by hammock »

Etheryte wrote: post #10

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

Good point. Worth noting that the Russian newspaper reporting this, Kommersant, is the most liberal/independent of the three business dailies in the country and is sort of the Babylon Bee of Russia, if the BB wasn’t satire: it spells its name with pre-Revolution Cyrillic and uses creative neologisms, wordplay, metaphors, and legally imposed euphemisms in its stories to maintain a degree of independence in periods of severe state censorship

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#23

Post by JumpCrisscross »

loeg wrote: post #16

Great to see sanctions working. Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end.

> Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end

This will be Europe’s first post-War test of security integrity.

My suspicion is it will fail—that Europe as a single force, versus collection of countries crowded on a continent, is an American invention, and without American strength will dissolve divided. But my hope is it will succeed.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#24

Post by jhugo »

slater wrote: post #19
xeeeeeeeeeeenu wrote: post #11

Belsat's article[1] is a bit more detailed and I found this fragment interesting: >According to Andrei Kramarenko, a leading expert at the Institute of Transport Economics of the Higher School of Economics, passenger traffic in Russia has almost stopped growing due to insufficient supply. In September, Russia's Ministry of Transport revised its annual forecast to last year's level of 103 million passengers carried by…

Is a ~95% seat occupancy considered bad...?

The comment you replied to says that they can’t meet demand due to insufficient supply (due to grounded aircraft). Very high occupancy is consistent with that. If Delta suddenly had half as many aircraft they would always be full too.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#25

Post by rtsil »

slater wrote: post #19
xeeeeeeeeeeenu wrote: post #11

Belsat's article[1] is a bit more detailed and I found this fragment interesting: >According to Andrei Kramarenko, a leading expert at the Institute of Transport Economics of the Higher School of Economics, passenger traffic in Russia has almost stopped growing due to insufficient supply. In September, Russia's Ministry of Transport revised its annual forecast to last year's level of 103 million passengers carried by…

Is a ~95% seat occupancy considered bad...?

It's bad if half of your fleet is also grounded.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#26

Post by hammock »

slater wrote: post #19
xeeeeeeeeeeenu wrote: post #11

Belsat's article[1] is a bit more detailed and I found this fragment interesting: >According to Andrei Kramarenko, a leading expert at the Institute of Transport Economics of the Higher School of Economics, passenger traffic in Russia has almost stopped growing due to insufficient supply. In September, Russia's Ministry of Transport revised its annual forecast to last year's level of 103 million passengers carried by…

Is a ~95% seat occupancy considered bad...?

Counterintuitively, yes, because air travel is a Cournot good and you grow/make money by expanding supply (more planes), which they can’t

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#27

Post by ethbr1 »

Etheryte wrote: post #10

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

The point of modern sanctions is not that it makes import impossible (look at Russian circumvention for dual-use military technologies), but that it makes import at whole-economy scale more expensive and unreliable.

And ultimately that's what imposes economic costs.

It'll be curious how much of the gap is filled by substitute Chinese goods. (E.g. the domestic CFM-alternative engine projects [0])

With the wrinkle that Russia and China are united by their geopolitical opponents more than their friendship, and Xi doesn't seem thrilled about shackling the Chinese economy to the consequences of Russian war.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#28

Post by signatoremo »

layer8 wrote: post #4

The article also notes that A320/A321neo only make up 5% of the fleets of Russian airlines.

They didn’t mention of Boeing fleet but the situation is supposedly the same. Together, while only small percentage, they are more efficient, can transport more, go farther, need less maintenance, so more desirable.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#29

Post by rtsil »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #23
loeg wrote: post #16

Great to see sanctions working. Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end.

> Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end This will be Europe’s first post-War test of security integrity. My suspicion is it will fail—that Europe as a single force, versus collection of countries crowded on a continent, is an American invention, and without American strength will dissolve divided. But my hope is it will succeed.

There's an argument that the US did everything to prevent Europe from coalescing into a single force and only want Europe to be a single market, not much more, for instance by convincing Eastern European countries to trust their protective umbrella rather than the French-German domination.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#30

Post by dcrazy »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #18
Etheryte wrote: post #10

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

>There's a reason why they closed off their stock market That's a completely false information. The stock market isn't closed.

The post you are quoting did not say they closed the stock market. They said they “closed off” the stock market, which implies denying access to certain classes of investors.

That said, I’m not finding anything about Russia prohibiting foreign investment, but I am finding a lot about sanctions prohibiting dollar and Euro investment in Russia.

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