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OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

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Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#21

not long ago these people would have you believe that a next word predictor trained on reddit posts would somehow lead to artificial general superintelligence

If you look around, People still believe that a next word predictor trained on reddit posts would somehow lead to artificial general superintelligence

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#23
> OpenAI's latest model ... failed to meet the company's performance expectations ... particularly in answering coding questions outside its training data.

So the models' accuracies won't grow exponentially, but can still grow linearly with the size of the training data.

Sounds like DataAnnotation will be sending out a lot more LinkedIn messages.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#24
I am not sure how these large companies think they will reach "greater-than-human" intelligence any time soon if they do not create systems that financially incentivize people to sell their knowledge labor (unstable contracting gigs are not attractive).

Where do these large "AI" companies think the mass amounts of data used to train these models come from? People! The most powerful and compact complex systems in existence, IMO.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#26

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

An embodied robot can have a model of self vs. the immediate environment in which it's interacting. Such a robot is arguably sentient.

The "hard problem", to which you may be alluding, may never matter. It's already feasible for an 'AI/AGI with LLM component' to be "self-aware".

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#27

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

At this point, AGI means many different things to many different people but OpenAI defines it as "highly autonomous systems that outperform humans in most economically valuable tasks"

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#28

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

An embodied robot can have a model of self vs. the immediate environment in which it's interacting. Such a robot is arguably sentient. The "hard problem", to which you may be alluding, may never matter. It's already feasible for an 'AI/AGI with LLM component' to be "self-aware".

self-awareness is only one aspect of sentience.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#29

> OpenAI's latest model ... failed to meet the company's performance expectations ... particularly in answering coding questions outside its training data. So the models' accuracies won't grow exponentially, but can still grow linearly with the size of the training data. Sounds like DataAnnotation will be sending out a lot more LinkedIn messages.

I thought I saw some paper suggesting that accuracy grows linearly with exponential data. If that's the case it's not a mystery why we'd be hitting a training wall. Not sure I got the right takeaway from that study, though.

EDIT: here's the paper https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#30
Im no Alan Turing but I have my own definition for AGI - when I come home one day and there's a hole under my sink with a note "Mum and Dad, I love you but I cant stand this life any more, Im running away to be a smoke machine in Hollywood - the dishwasher"
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