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BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

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Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#21
post #11
post #3

Only 7.9 percent of all of their sales is outside of China. They can generate fancy numbers galore on domestic soil where they have both production subsidies as well as government aid for buying said vehicles, but it's very unclear how they're going to fare outside of China.

How significant are the production subsidies? Are they a meaningful percentage of sales revenue?

They're now mostly in the form of tax rebates and cheap loans these days. According to the Nikkei (https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-s-hidden-s...) :

"BYD received a total of 37.1 billion yuan in tax rebates over the five-year period, nearly four times the 9.3 billion yuan it received in subsidies. Additionally, BYD has secured long-term bank loans at interest rates between 2.05% and 2.98%, lower than the one-year prime lending rate of 3.35%, according to the company filings. "

The overt subsidies mostly existed in the early part of the development process. It's a playbook that's quite commonly used in East Asian economies. Basically it goes like this:

1. Erected barriers to foreign competition and hand out subsidies to simulate local competition

2. Withdraw subsidies to push industries towards mergers and leave only a few big companies in the industry

3. Remove barriers to foreign competitions (i.e. invite Tesla) to foster innovations

4. Export

This makes it devilishly hard to quantify the amount of subsidies received and it's intentional.

China isn't the first to do this but rather borrowed the playbook from Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, who borrowed it from Germany, who, ironically, was inspired by the idea of industrial policy from Alexander Hamilton (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2024-03-14/odd-lots-ind...)

Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#22
post #3

Only 7.9 percent of all of their sales is outside of China. They can generate fancy numbers galore on domestic soil where they have both production subsidies as well as government aid for buying said vehicles, but it's very unclear how they're going to fare outside of China.

Only reason they wouldn't take off outside China is the astronomical tariffs the West are putting on Chinese cars (100% in the US). Though depending on the wording, they may be able to just build a plant in Mexico and take advantage of NAFTA. I can't tell from the whitehouse post on the tariff if it's tied to country of the manufacturer or just country of origin (usually it's origin).

> Only reason they wouldn't take off outside China is the astronomical tariffs the West are putting on Chinese cars

Doing very well in New Zealand and Australia

The dealers doing even better with 200% markups....

Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#23
I've been happily driving a BYD Atto 3 for ~6 months now. Very happy with it, its got a lot of nice software and hardware features, carplay/android auto works well, driving is nice and very smooth (especially on sport mode), and my daughter loves playing with the "strings" on the doors. The most glaring issue is the battery which is really its weakest part.

Is it better than a Tesla? Probably not - there are clearly places in the software where I know that Teslas are more polished (e.g. the "360" parking view which IMO could be a bit better, although I feel like I'm parking in gta 2), and the acceleration won't blow your socks off. However, they're much cheaper and it's a good family car (for us) - definitely for the price.

Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#24
post #19
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over $2bn in state and federal subsidies - https://archive.is/g5Gnb https://imgur.com/a/XYSSnTQ

Do we have any insight into how much the Chinese government supports BYD? $2B seems like a pretty small number, to be honest. I would expect the number to be at least an order of magnitude (or two!) higher for BYD. At any rate, $2B is a drop in Tesla's bucket; their quarterly revenue is around $25B now. That $2B may have been given at a critical time in Tesla's development and growth, but today it would be 2% of thei…

From: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-s-hidden-s...

"BYD received a total of 37.1 billion yuan in tax rebates over the five-year period, nearly four times the 9.3 billion yuan it received in subsidies. Additionally, BYD has secured long-term bank loans at interest rates between 2.05% and 2.98%, lower than the one-year prime lending rate of 3.35%, according to the company filings. "

So it sounds like it received 9.3 billion yuan or 1.3 billion USD but it also receives 4x as much in tax rebates.

Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#26
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with the tariff approach is that they generally apply to countries that actually have an auto industry, but not all countries have one. Countries without tariffs will enjoy lots of competition and cheap prices, while established automakers with tariff protections will be squeezed out. I don't see how it's possible to stop China, even if rich western countries band together.

The problem is when it's not fair competition. Certainly Tesla has received government subsidies, but I expect their numbers to pale in comparison to whatever money the Chinese government has directly and indirectly poured into BYD. Flooding foreign markets with your heavily-subsidized cars in order to kill your competition is great for you, but not so great for competitors in the market of sale.

And under capitalism, why should I care for the competitors? That unprofitable companies die is what is supposed to drive efficiency! Why mourn the death of a rent seeker?

Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#27
I really wanted to buy BYD in Germany this year but the car prices are 2x what they are in China - e.g. Seal is 45k EUR vs 25k USD with 3m delivery lag, no repair shops or spare parts on hand.

Their software game is also quite lacking but I was ready to cut them some slack there due to their superior battery tech.

Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#28
post #3

Only 7.9 percent of all of their sales is outside of China. They can generate fancy numbers galore on domestic soil where they have both production subsidies as well as government aid for buying said vehicles, but it's very unclear how they're going to fare outside of China.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-10-16/electric-... | https://archive.today/uJLa4 ("Bloomberg: BYD Is Winning the Global Race to Make Cheaper EVs") > Last fall in Malta, BYD began selling the Atto 3, an all-electric compact crossover. Strip away the company’s futuristic logo, and it looks almost indistinguishable from other small, sporty SUVs. But inside it’s full of treats, including heated seats in vega…

https://www.bydauto.co.nz/vehicles/atto-3

US$31,087.42 for the same car in New Zealand

Frustrating

Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#29
post #3

Only 7.9 percent of all of their sales is outside of China. They can generate fancy numbers galore on domestic soil where they have both production subsidies as well as government aid for buying said vehicles, but it's very unclear how they're going to fare outside of China.

Only reason they wouldn't take off outside China is the astronomical tariffs the West are putting on Chinese cars (100% in the US). Though depending on the wording, they may be able to just build a plant in Mexico and take advantage of NAFTA. I can't tell from the whitehouse post on the tariff if it's tied to country of the manufacturer or just country of origin (usually it's origin).

Or if the build quality of their vehicles was not up to par with US regulation or the quality standards the US market is accustomed to..which seems very possible given the connotations generally shared domestically around the phrase “made in china”

Re: BYD quarterly sales beat Tesla for first time

#30
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with the tariff approach is that they generally apply to countries that actually have an auto industry, but not all countries have one. Countries without tariffs will enjoy lots of competition and cheap prices, while established automakers with tariff protections will be squeezed out. I don't see how it's possible to stop China, even if rich western countries band together.

The problem is when it's not fair competition. Certainly Tesla has received government subsidies, but I expect their numbers to pale in comparison to whatever money the Chinese government has directly and indirectly poured into BYD. Flooding foreign markets with your heavily-subsidized cars in order to kill your competition is great for you, but not so great for competitors in the market of sale.

I don't disagree with you that it's unfair, but from the perspective of a country without an industry to lose, they have everything to gain from a race to the bottom.

How does a rich, car-exporting country convince a less rich and car-importing country to not buy that inexpensive car from China and instead buy a more expensive one? Tariffs can't address this issue.

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