Spring time and it’s 7 degrees. Usually higher this time of year.
Weather is not climate...
Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
21–30 of 118 posts
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#22We all live in the same planet, the most reasonable way to share this is that we get an equal share. For far to long certain countries have taken up much more of their share. To such a point that our whole carbon budget has been used in a single or two generations. Now is the time for those better of to contribute their fair share in solving this mess.
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
There was a recent article in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-c... Seems like the models have quite a few holes. It made me wonder if anyone has considered making a complete list of assumptions that are baked into these models, so they can be looked at in detail.
Do you mean "a full model so that you can analyze it with fluid dynamics, differential equations, and thermodynamics", or do you mean "a pre made Gish Gallop that you can rattle off without having to actually think about any of them"?
Something in-between a macro-economic model and a physical simulation.
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#24Worth remembering that even IPCC itself has models which predict way higher temperatures by 2100 than goes into IPCC reports. We have just decided to collectively ignore them.
We are collectively in full on denial about the consequences of climate change. Only directly accountable organizations like militaries and insurers are actually acting on the data. People are still buying cheap stuff from overseas, traveling and generally spending energy like there's no tomorrow. We will only see real changes in behavior and policy once coastal flooding in major metropolises becomes a reality a few…
Why do people keep bringing up coastal flooding? Its one of the smallest and least concerning climate change effects.
The 10cm sea level rise over the next few decades isnt very relevant and the speculation about increased storms is highly location dependent and low confidence.
Far more problematic are the effects on farming of a degree rise.
Its also very degrowth to conflate energy use with CO2 emissions. Many types of energy use are time flexible (or, like AC, focused on sunny days) and thus can use solar power.
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#25We all live in the same planet, the most reasonable way to share this is that we get an equal share. For far to long certain countries have taken up much more of their share. To such a point that our whole carbon budget has been used in a single or two generations. Now is the time for those better of to contribute their fair share in solving this mess.
yeah well.. the world will literally burn before that
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#26We all live in the same planet, the most reasonable way to share this is that we get an equal share. For far to long certain countries have taken up much more of their share. To such a point that our whole carbon budget has been used in a single or two generations. Now is the time for those better of to contribute their fair share in solving this mess.
"the most reasonable way to share this is that we get an equal share"
That doesn't sound reasonable to me.
How do you to find equal?
Who implements the counting and penalties for someone taking more or less than their Fair share?
Is there anybody who is going to be left out of "we"?
I could go on...
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
We are collectively in full on denial about the consequences of climate change. Only directly accountable organizations like militaries and insurers are actually acting on the data. People are still buying cheap stuff from overseas, traveling and generally spending energy like there's no tomorrow. We will only see real changes in behavior and policy once coastal flooding in major metropolises becomes a reality a few…
Why do people keep bringing up coastal flooding? Its one of the smallest and least concerning climate change effects. The 10cm sea level rise over the next few decades isnt very relevant and the speculation about increased storms is highly location dependent and low confidence. Far more problematic are the effects on farming of a degree rise. Its also very degrowth to conflate energy use with CO2 emissions. Many type…
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Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#28Wasn't this a result of removing sulfur from Ocean going vessel fuels?
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
We are collectively in full on denial about the consequences of climate change. Only directly accountable organizations like militaries and insurers are actually acting on the data. People are still buying cheap stuff from overseas, traveling and generally spending energy like there's no tomorrow. We will only see real changes in behavior and policy once coastal flooding in major metropolises becomes a reality a few…
Why do people keep bringing up coastal flooding? Its one of the smallest and least concerning climate change effects. The 10cm sea level rise over the next few decades isnt very relevant and the speculation about increased storms is highly location dependent and low confidence. Far more problematic are the effects on farming of a degree rise. Its also very degrowth to conflate energy use with CO2 emissions. Many type…
> Far more problematic are the effects on farming of a degree rise.
Temperature and co2 increases are beneficial to plant growth. What is the problematic aspect you are referring to?
Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated
#30Governments still don't take it seriously though.
Here in Spain, we still plan to shut down our nuclear reactors (while many other countries are restarting their nuclear programmes) and at the same time the EU has placed crippling tariffs on Chinese EVs so the transition to electric vehicles remains unaffordable for most people.
When appeasing an ideological voter base or German shareholders remains more important than lowering emissions, we don't have much hope of making further progress.