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Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

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21–30 of 122 posts

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#21

Of all the tech companies in the US, Intel is the most likely to be bailed out by the government, no questions asked. Poor business? Gimme a break. They could exterminate a smaller ~~African~~ scratch that, Central or South American country with zero consequences. Joking aside, I can see the US engaging in heavy-handed protectionism to help Intel.

Joking aside, I can see the US engaging in heavy-handed protectionism to help Intel.

Yes, you can[0].

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#23
post #9

No one in their right mind would think this is going to be a smooth ride. The massive amount of capital required to build cutting-edge fabs is a hard pill to swallow. These news writers need to cut Intel some slack. The world needs cutting-edge fabs in geopolitically stable locations. I believe Intel is simply too critical to fail at this point, and, as always, Uncle Sam won't let them.

Is intel even in a position to be competitive on the fab level? I was under the impression intel's fabs haven't been "cutting edge" for a long time now.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#24

Intel is utterly massive and owns their own fabs. Companies that large don't collapse in a day unless there is some illegal shenanigans going on.

Demand for x86 processors isn't going away any time soon either, and they're only one of only two companies with a license to make them. AMD is currently strong on the x86 front, but their production is constrained by the wafer allocations they can get at TSMC while those wafers would be more profitably spent on making GPUs instead.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#25
post #7
post #6

If Intel is critical to the US industrial base, why aren't Nvidia and Apple stepping up to support Intel? What is the point of $3T national champions like Apple and Nvidia if they ship the industrial base overseas.

> why aren't Nvidia and Apple stepping up to support Intel? Is it the role of a for-profit public company to "support" another for-profit public company? Free market, supply and demand, live by the sword die by the sword and all that. If Intel made decisions that lead to it's downfall, surely that is on them.

TFA says companies have an incentive for intel to succeed so they're not all reliant on TSMC.

Apple used to dual-source their chips from Samsung/TSMC before they went all in with TSMC, but it's clear they're now vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#27
post #14

> After two sets of disastrous quarterly earnings the company’s market value has shrivelled to $84bn, less than the value of its plants and equipment, from over $210bn in January. Holy smokes. I just looked at the INTC 5 year chart and it is, in fact, a bath of blood. I don't think it happens very often that the market cap of a company is less than the worth of its physical assets.

INTC is criminally oversold right now. I'm buying as much of it as I can at these prices.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#28
post #14

> After two sets of disastrous quarterly earnings the company’s market value has shrivelled to $84bn, less than the value of its plants and equipment, from over $210bn in January. Holy smokes. I just looked at the INTC 5 year chart and it is, in fact, a bath of blood. I don't think it happens very often that the market cap of a company is less than the worth of its physical assets.

There was a time when Apple had a market cap approximately equal to its book value, about 4 billion.

This was when basically every article about the company used the word beleaguered, they couldn’t actually ship the computers people wanted to buy, and they were flailing around with their next gen os.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#30
I think Gelsingers plan is sound, but they have only one try left after they desired to skip 20A to save money. It's 18A or bust. If 18A is not success, Intel will drop out of manufacturing. If 18A does well, Intel is back making money next to TSMC.

So far 18A seems to be a success. Already sub-0.40 D0 defect density and launch at some time 2025Q3 and fully ramped up in 2026.

Fabs will bleed money 2024 and 2025, there is no way around it.

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