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Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

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Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#21

Post by ml-anon »

mrkeen wrote: post #18
anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

> people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. This is the kind of thing that makes me believe that class solidarity is real.

Yeah, paul graham is rich, not smart.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#22

Post by Zenzero »

torginus wrote: post #20
mrkeen wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What software breakthroughs have they made that make you believe that FSD won't be 5 years away for the rest of time?

Not sure - but Waymo and a few Chinese vendors already have self-driving robotaxis in production. That, combined with the AI boom, tells me that building a self-driving car (even if geofenced and/or L3) is on the horizon. If that's the case, Tesla will probably figure this out as well.

I'm no expert, but anyone can look at the sensors placed on a Waymo compared to a Tesla and likely rightly assume Waymo doesn't have all of that extra stuff just for looks.

I don't see how Tesla is even a serious contender.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#23

Post by Zenzero »

fragmede wrote: post #11
lm28469 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember when tesla was about to release full self driving cars "next year" and uber said they'd buy every single car tesla would produce aha That was like 10 years ago, and we still don't have anything even remotely close to self driving besides the few $$$ experimental cars driving the long straight roads of ever sunny california

Have you tried it? it's not there but it's close. Even Ford's Blue Cruise is half way there.

Like many things in life, "it's close" is not worth celebrating, especially if it's not clear how the gap will be solved.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#24

Post by Zenzero »

ml-anon wrote: post #21
mrkeen wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. This is the kind of thing that makes me believe that class solidarity is real.

Yeah, paul graham is rich, not smart.

The halo effect in action.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#25

Post by jvanderbot »

mrich wrote: post #9
daghamm wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some Teslas don't have the sensor hardware and the compute power to do road-safe FSD. This is something Tesla engineers learned the hard way. Things may change in the future as we make advances in computing and AI, but right now it is not possible.

So it's ok to sell a feature to customers if you only find out later it's not possible?

A more generous interpretation is that GP provides context and logical reasons behind the decision, not excuses for it.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#26

Post by jvanderbot »

torginus wrote: post #20
mrkeen wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What software breakthroughs have they made that make you believe that FSD won't be 5 years away for the rest of time?

Not sure - but Waymo and a few Chinese vendors already have self-driving robotaxis in production. That, combined with the AI boom, tells me that building a self-driving car (even if geofenced and/or L3) is on the horizon. If that's the case, Tesla will probably figure this out as well.

"Traditional" self-driving stacks use a ton of pre-built maps, lidar and other range sensors, and has teams of people keeping those maps registered and up to date.

Tesla's plan is (or has become) to do an end-run around all that, and just train a giant network on camera-only sensor stacks, so that it can navigate without large 3D representations of the environment / city in which it works, without expensive lidar/radar sensor suites, and to skip the "partner" phase that Waymo and others do with particular cities.

This allowed them to bring me, a MN customer, something like lvl 3 autonomy before any other company did. But it might not have the same upper-bound as other, more fine-tuned approaches do, and having ridden in Waymo, Nuro, etc vs my own Tesla, I can tell you the Tesla is wonkier for it. Time will tell.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#27

Post by fooker »

Zenzero wrote: post #22
torginus wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure - but Waymo and a few Chinese vendors already have self-driving robotaxis in production. That, combined with the AI boom, tells me that building a self-driving car (even if geofenced and/or L3) is on the horizon. If that's the case, Tesla will probably figure this out as well.

I'm no expert, but anyone can look at the sensors placed on a Waymo compared to a Tesla and likely rightly assume Waymo doesn't have all of that extra stuff just for looks. I don't see how Tesla is even a serious contender.

The hypothesis was that LIDAR was a crutch, humans manage with just vision.

Whether this is correct for delivering self driving cars, we will find out soon enough. Long term though, it definitely makes sense. We just don't know what the missing pieces of the puzzle are.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#28

Post by davej »

peutetre wrote: post #3

> Previously, customers were offered the option to purchase “Full Self-Driving Capability,” They were offered a lie. Tesla still hasn't delivered what those customers paid for. > Let’s look at what else has changed on Tesla’s website on FSD before we dive into the wording changes. Another recent change on Tesla's website is to remove old blog posts, including a 2016 blog post in which Tesla claimed "as of today, all…

> Another recent change on Tesla's website is to remove old blog posts, including a 2016 blog post in which Tesla claimed …

Perhaps unintended but this is a bit misleading. Tesla changed their blog system and didn’t migrate older posts. My initial reading of your comment was that they selectively removed some older posts which they wanted to hide.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#29

Post by seanhunter »

fooker wrote: post #27
Zenzero wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no expert, but anyone can look at the sensors placed on a Waymo compared to a Tesla and likely rightly assume Waymo doesn't have all of that extra stuff just for looks. I don't see how Tesla is even a serious contender.

The hypothesis was that LIDAR was a crutch, humans manage with just vision. Whether this is correct for delivering self driving cars, we will find out soon enough. Long term though, it definitely makes sense. We just don't know what the missing pieces of the puzzle are.

> humans manage with just vision

this is commonly repeated but very obviously untrue.

We don't only have vision. We have a general intelligence, coupled with vision. In the absence of AGI, the base assumption has to be the sensor apparatus needs to be significantly superior to humans for an FSD system to drive at a comparable level.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#30

Post by lancesells »

lm28469 wrote: post #15
fragmede wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you tried it? it's not there but it's close. Even Ford's Blue Cruise is half way there.

Try driving in a small Italian town, on a Swiss mountain roads during a snow storm, &c. The last 20% are the hardest so if you're only 50% of the way there you haven't even started the hard part

Living in NYC I would say try driving without breaking any laws or road rules and see how far you get. You can't drive half a mile without driving in the other lane to get around something.
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