Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics • Hacker News Board

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#21

Post by kiba » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:24 AM UTC

nemothekid wrote: post #14

tennisflyi wrote: post #7

Seminal article (I guess), https://xsrus.com/the-economics-of-onlyfans > It’s just as easy to imagine demand for the “real thing” going down due to the emergence of more substitutes as it is to imagine the premium for parasocial authenticity going up. And yet only Generative AI “creators” will truly do whatever “you” want and only for you. And unlike real ones, they speak in every language and are available at any ti…

It's the same pipe dream as "AI content creators will take over youtube". There is no "formula" for success in the creator economy - the winners are largely random. A better way to look at it is there are 4 million humans out there trying every permutation to crack success, and ~400k actually do it. Unless you have a sufficiently advanced AI agent that is both varying it's content and it's marketing strategy to the t…

A good AI girlfriend wouldn't be a therapist but would mimics every aspect of a girlfriend, including arguments and fights and makeups, because that's how bonding occurs. That's going to be how successful AI girlfriend will be made.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#22

Post by xyst » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:25 AM UTC

Wow - those AI generated influencers would be enough to fool older populations. If I was a shitty person, I would build my own network of “influencers” to manage and pump money from the lonely/desperate.

Baby steps towards the “dead internet theory”

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#23

Post by xyst » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:26 AM UTC

throw7 wrote: post #20

2/3 of its revenues were from the U.S. That's... sad.

I wonder how much of that is from a group of lonely whales.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#24

Post by brcmthrowaway » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:29 AM UTC

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #17

OnlyFans is run by a very small tight knit group of people. A while back, I sat at a poker table in vegas with one for 5 hours. We discussed technology and the future of OF. I was offered a job to run a technology team there - often think I made a mistake not taking it.

Super interesting

I wish I was cut throat enough to know real players in internet commerce

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#25

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:38 AM UTC

throw7 wrote: post #20

2/3 of its revenues were from the U.S. That's... sad.

> 2/3 of its revenues were from the U.S. That's... sad.

Probably common for a lot of luxury products; US is like 1/4 of world GDP, and a lot higher than that in personal income beyond basic needs.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#26

Post by l0ng1nu5 » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:40 AM UTC

kiba wrote: post #21

nemothekid wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the same pipe dream as "AI content creators will take over youtube". There is no "formula" for success in the creator economy - the winners are largely random. A better way to look at it is there are 4 million humans out there trying every permutation to crack success, and ~400k actually do it. Unless you have a sufficiently advanced AI agent that is both varying it's content and it's marketing strategy to the t…

A good AI girlfriend wouldn't be a therapist but would mimics every aspect of a girlfriend, including arguments and fights and makeups, because that's how bonding occurs. That's going to be how successful AI girlfriend will be made.

[flagged]

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#27

Post by yen223 » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:41 AM UTC

throw7 wrote: post #20

2/3 of its revenues were from the U.S. That's... sad.

This just means a) the US is a huge market, and b) they haven't cracked the China market yet

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#28

Post by CSMastermind » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:46 AM UTC

I have a buddy how likes to tell how he "had the idea for Onlyfans first" but I advised him not to pursue it.

The reality is that OnlyFans wasn't the first to try this model. You have to give them credit for successfully building the business, especially with several close calls between them and government regulations.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#29

Post by ZoomZoomZoom » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:46 AM UTC

l0ng1nu5 wrote: post #26

kiba wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A good AI girlfriend wouldn't be a therapist but would mimics every aspect of a girlfriend, including arguments and fights and makeups, because that's how bonding occurs. That's going to be how successful AI girlfriend will be made.

[flagged]

Why? They're common people, not sociopaths.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#30

Post by doix » Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 1:52 AM UTC

CSMastermind wrote: post #28

I have a buddy how likes to tell how he "had the idea for Onlyfans first" but I advised him not to pursue it. The reality is that OnlyFans wasn't the first to try this model. You have to give them credit for successfully building the business, especially with several close calls between them and government regulations.

Yeah, I'm sure millions of people had this idea. My friends and I talked about it at some point as well.

The problem is the payment processor. How the heck do you accept adult-content related payments? That is the hardest problem to solve when it comes to these things in my book.