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Can solar costs keep shrinking?

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

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Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#21

Post by specialist »

rtkwe wrote: post #2

I'm having a hard time getting past the assumption in the article that energy use is tied directly to GDP per capita and that by not following the 7% growth of the Henry Adams Curve we're somehow below where we should/could be as a country. That embeds so many assumptions about the economy and where GDP comes from, the decoupling seems more likely to be from the transition from manufacturing and other energy heavy se…

I clocked that too.

Perhaps author is nodding towards replacing fossil fuels with electricity.

Decarbonizing steel uses a lot more energy. Ditto cement, plastics, fertilizers, HVAC, etc.

Anyone care to guess how much more energy our glorious renewable energy future perfect economy will require? 4x? 6x?

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#22

Post by kkfx »

The issues for p.v. are mainly two:

- one is speculation, because yes panels get cheaper, so inverters and batteries, but prices to the customers AUGMENT more and more, and current prices for private, domestic p.v., at least in the EU, it's so high that's a nonsense installing them. Personally, since in my country it legal, a thing NOT so common, I've build a small domestic system for 11.500€ while the cheapest offer was a bit more than 30.000€ for essentially the same setup, worst than mine;

- the other is again speculation on many sides, one of the most prominent the push toward utility-run p.v. witch is UNSUSTAINABLE, because it makes the load to large classic power plant vary way too quickly and too much to keep the frequency stable because we can't make enough grid storage and for such usage batteries life span it's way too low, p.v. works very well for self-consumption, with domestic storage as a grid backup, but not more.

If we do not state clearly: the service model where very few own nearly all it's incompatible with the Green New Deal, we have two options: killing large finance capitalism model or falling to implement the New Deal plunging from the first to the third world countries. I'm damn serious.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#23

Post by ldbooth »

7e wrote: post #3

These charts stop right at the point where the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels, and the tarrif schedule is only going up, to 50%. This matters because the future of solar is utility scale, where the panel costs dominate. So for the US, at least, solar costs will not keep shrinking in the short term.

Also The post-Covid interest rate hikes. Which is why prices went up from 2021-2023. The author attributes this only to supply chain: developers had PPAs signed in 2019-2021 that assumed lower borrowing & construction costs, then interest rates went up sharply, and all those PPAs had to be either renegotiated or the underlying project was never built.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#25

Post by henry2023 »

blululu wrote: post #14
pjc50 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Countries that impose tariffs on solar panels and EVs are really demonstrating that they don't actually believe in climate change being important, compared to good old bribes for corporate donors.

Countries that dump solar panels on the international market to kill off foreign competition are really demonstrating that... During the Obama years the US invested heavily in Solar, and developed many of the technical innovations that make cheap solar possible today. Unfortunately the people who did this work were not able to keep up with the CCP subsidizing solar panels well below cost. They folded and the US has v…

What makes you think that cheap solar panels aren’t the product of economy of scale in a country that just likes to build stuff?

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#26

Post by ForHackernews »

macspoofing wrote: post #19
jvanderbot wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It takes more energy to produce more stuff Energy consumption is also about using that stuff. And in rich countries like the USA, a lot of energy goes to using things or just moving people. So it's possible to build more and use less energy, even if you don't reduce the energy cost of building things. They can simply become more efficient to use and move . In USA, 30% is just homes and commercial sector. 40% is tra…

>So it's possible to build more and use less energy, even if you don't reduce the energy cost of building things. In principle I can imagine that being true - but that's not represented in our world, so it is an open question if you can 'build more and use less energy' in the real world.

It's represented everywhere that efficiency counts. I haven't fact-checked it, but one source[0] claims that refinements in the design of soda cans (thinner walls, different shapes) since 1960 saves "at least 90 million kilograms of aluminum annually."

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUhisi2FBuw

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#27

Post by andrewmcwatters »

xhkkffbf wrote: post #12

If labor costs keep going up, it seems like the right path for the industry is to simplify installation more so it becomes more DIY. More plug-and-play. Less skilled carpenters and electricians.

Labor costs for installing solar are already so ridiculous that you're better off doing the parting, delivery, and some installation if not all of it yourself and then having a licensed electrician just finish the connection to your main circuit breaker.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#28

Post by bryanlarsen »

specialist wrote: post #21
rtkwe wrote: post #2

I'm having a hard time getting past the assumption in the article that energy use is tied directly to GDP per capita and that by not following the 7% growth of the Henry Adams Curve we're somehow below where we should/could be as a country. That embeds so many assumptions about the economy and where GDP comes from, the decoupling seems more likely to be from the transition from manufacturing and other energy heavy se…

I clocked that too. Perhaps author is nodding towards replacing fossil fuels with electricity. Decarbonizing steel uses a lot more energy. Ditto cement, plastics, fertilizers, HVAC, etc. Anyone care to guess how much more energy our glorious renewable energy future perfect economy will require? 4x? 6x?

How about significantly less than 1x?

Fossil fuels waste most of their energy as heat. Gasoline cars are ~30% efficient, EV's are ~90%.

And heat pumps are often 200-500% efficient, unlike fossil fuel furnaces which cap out around 95%.

Transportation and heating use far more fuel than industrial uses.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#29

Post by sharpshadow »

rtkwe wrote: post #2

I'm having a hard time getting past the assumption in the article that energy use is tied directly to GDP per capita and that by not following the 7% growth of the Henry Adams Curve we're somehow below where we should/could be as a country. That embeds so many assumptions about the economy and where GDP comes from, the decoupling seems more likely to be from the transition from manufacturing and other energy heavy se…

Look at Germany the next years. We gave up coal, nuclear and now gas. Have the highest prices for energy in the world and our industry is leaving.

If we would have more energy we would get much richer and not more poor like right now.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#30

Post by joeyh »

7e wrote: post #3

These charts stop right at the point where the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels, and the tarrif schedule is only going up, to 50%. This matters because the future of solar is utility scale, where the panel costs dominate. So for the US, at least, solar costs will not keep shrinking in the short term.

Those tariffs have were entirely worked around on the Chinese side before the ink was dry. One easy dodge: Manufacture in eg India for a little bit more, sell those to the US, transport Chinese solar panels for installation in India.

I bought a pallet just after the tariffs were announced and the price today is cheaper.

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