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Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

asiatimes.com

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Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#21

Post by xbmcuser »

cherryteastain wrote: post #7

Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources [2]. Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door? Commercialization of a technology like this can easily take 5-10 years, and ASML aren't t…

If I am not wrong cost is a big factor currently not the tech advantage. It's one of the reasons we got the meme Moore's law is dead. So if someone is able to get even a generation or so older node compared to previous at cheaper price it will be a huge shift in the industry.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#23

Post by Panzer04 »

alephnerd wrote: post #13
cherryteastain wrote: post #7

Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources [2]. Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door? Commercialization of a technology like this can easily take 5-10 years, and ASML aren't t…

> Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door Canon and Nikon don't need to be bleeding edge. Majority of the chip fabrication market is 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm along with analog chips (60nm+). The sub-20nm chips will become more common as more and more fabs get turned on and EUV eventually gets commoditized, but th…

But how much of the monetary value generation derives from small nodes?

Surely the vast majority of fab income derives from these small nodes, just based on the sheer pricing disparity between complex semiconductors and everything else.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#24

Post by roenxi »

legacynl wrote: post #10
roenxi wrote: post #2

Will this attempt work out commercially? Maybe, maybe not. But more interesting here is the strategic situation beyond the currently understood tech. The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. There is a strategic need here to break the remaining Euro…

> Democracies are notoriously fickle, are they really though? At least in democracies things require oversight, debates and people are being held responsible. It's exactly authoritarian regimes that can turn on a dime, if the supreme leader feels like it.

> At least in democracies things require oversight, debates and people are being held responsible.

I'm scratching my head at this one. Why do you think they are doing those things if not because they are constantly re-evaluating their direction? If you're just going to keep doing the same thing over and over again there isn't much need for debate. The oversight and accountability mechanisms are all-weather good ideas, but typically the US is using them to constantly adjust and change policy responses.

Compare that to somewhere more authoritarian where they can't change policies precisely because those 3 aspects are quite weak. They find their groove once and stick to it for decades, and anyone trying to shake things up gets mired in institutional inertia. Sure a supreme leader could force sudden change in theory, but why are they going to do that? He's got everything set up how he likes it and his view of the world fossilised maybe 10, 20 years ago.

Democracies are absolute monsters. The moment they detect that their interests have changed they'll vote out the old mob, bring in a new one and do things differently. The US went Obama to Trump in one election cycle, which was probably a shock for anyone trying to negotiate with them.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#25

Post by ethbr1 »

Panzer04 wrote: post #23
alephnerd wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door Canon and Nikon don't need to be bleeding edge. Majority of the chip fabrication market is 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm along with analog chips (60nm+). The sub-20nm chips will become more common as more and more fabs get turned on and EUV eventually gets commoditized, but th…

But how much of the monetary value generation derives from small nodes? Surely the vast majority of fab income derives from these small nodes, just based on the sheer pricing disparity between complex semiconductors and everything else.

Compounded by the availability of the technology.

Few leading node machines = machine manufacturer/fab can charge high margins

Multiple trailing node machines/suppliers = machine manufacturers/fabs begin to compete on price, driving down margins

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#26

Post by alephnerd »

ethbr1 wrote: post #25
Panzer04 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how much of the monetary value generation derives from small nodes? Surely the vast majority of fab income derives from these small nodes, just based on the sheer pricing disparity between complex semiconductors and everything else.

Compounded by the availability of the technology. Few leading node machines = machine manufacturer/fab can charge high margins Multiple trailing node machines/suppliers = machine manufacturers/fabs begin to compete on price, driving down margins

^^^ this.

A good example of this principle is the diffusion of analog chip and memory chip fabrication in the 1990s to early 2010s (US/TW/JP/SK in 1980s-90s to MY/SG/PH in the 90s to CN in the 2000s).

The ongoing diffusion of specialized DUVL processes like 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm is another great example (US in the 2000s to TW/SK in the 2010s to CN in the late 2010s/early 2020s).

Nowadays companies like PSMC are selling the entire end-to-end Fab IP for 28nm/40nm processes to companies in JP, IN, ID, US, etc, further diffusing the know how.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#27

Post by roenxi »

zenapollo wrote: post #14
roenxi wrote: post #2

Will this attempt work out commercially? Maybe, maybe not. But more interesting here is the strategic situation beyond the currently understood tech. The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. There is a strategic need here to break the remaining Euro…

Fickle? It’s been Russia and China for like 100 years. I’m no expert but it might be due to crushing political oppression and aggressive empire building. Japan, S Korea, and Taiwan are all chip manufacturing power houses, and the only one not happy to see China blockaded is China. Though I’m sure they’re working on hacking into and stealing these new designs as we speak.

> It’s been Russia and China for like 100 years.

It hasn't been. The US was one of the key players who built China up to what it is today, for a significant chunk of the past century they were strategic partners against Russia.

And it is worth remembering that post WWII the US was busy marginalising the Europeans, making sure Germany was prosperous but didn't execute an independent military resurgence and helpfully euthanising the British empire. There were enemies other than Russia and China over that period. It just happens that the other European powers were broken to the point where their resistance was ineffectual and the process was mostly amicable - if they'd been more competent it'd have been a lot nastier.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#28

Post by ethbr1 »

lmz wrote: post #11
corimaith wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. Sorry but this sounds more like propaganda. China also sees supply chains "as a vector to attack power centres in Asia", that's applicable to anyone and anywhere. I'm not sure why Asia is a singled out here,…

> They've already tried sanctioning Korea and Japan over petty issues like Fukushima water waste. Well China wasn't the only one with concerns, but probably the only one with the balls to sanction: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/world/asia/korea-japan-fu... - and why shouldn't they?

Because it's filtered radioactive water, released over 30 years?

The main thing that won't be filtered is tritium, which already exists in the ocean, and has an ~12 year half life.

People get irrational where radiation is concerned, though.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#29

Post by coliveira »

cherryteastain wrote: post #7

Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources [2]. Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door? Commercialization of a technology like this can easily take 5-10 years, and ASML aren't t…

If you consider that China is unable to get ASML equipment, they have strong incentive to improve on this technology immediately. If Chinese companies start this path, then the issue is not if ASML will have improved, but if they will be able to withstand the competition.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#30

Post by coliveira »

alephnerd wrote: post #12

The actual paper [0] The yield rate is unimpressive (100 wafers/hr) compared to existing ASML EUV lithography machines (170-200/hr) or even DUV lithography (300/hr). [0] - https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.11717

For a new technology, that is not important. Yield rate will improve as more engineering is applied by these companies.
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