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In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

businessinsider.com

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Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#21

I’m so glad I left. The execs there are comically incompetent.

I am missing something, what is being said that signals incompetence?

At a very basic level, the only way the CEO could say most developers would be replaced is if he has not used state of the art code assistants. It’s either a lack of understanding the role of a developer, or of machine learning, or both.

And last time I checked AWS’ AI assistant won’t even handle IAM policies. So at least those jobs should be safe.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#22
post #20
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're replacing 2 seniors and 6 juniors with just 2 seniors, where are you gonna get more seniors when the 2 retire?

> If we're replacing 2 seniors and 6 juniors with just 2 seniors, where are you gonna get more seniors when the 2 retire? Happily drive off a cliff?

With a golden parachute nonetheless.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#23
post #4

I have yet to see a significant increase in productivity from AI. I wonder where they are extrapolating from?

They're extrapolating from their beliefs which they must hold given the investments they've already made in a fairly immature technology. They have to believe that AI will lower their staffing costs and start generating serious revenues because to admit otherwise means they have failed to present an honest picture to their investors.

> They're extrapolating from their beliefs which they must hold given the investments they've already made...

I swear that covers an embarrassingly large fraction of tech industry reasoning.

And everybody thinks they're so smart.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#25
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the enterprise stuff is programmers become more tool-assisted, so fewer programmers are needed. A team of two seniors and 6 juniors can just be two seniors. As you said, it's mostly breaking down a problem and knowing what's needed, then telling it what components are needed. 'Make me a function that does this and that' I use it all the time to make things I know I can make but it makes it, if it makes it a w…

If we're replacing 2 seniors and 6 juniors with just 2 seniors, where are you gonna get more seniors when the 2 retire?

That problem isn't in scope. That's a long term issue, we care about returns we can deliver in the next 2 quarters.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#26

In other news, Amazon investors just found out the AWS CEO could be replaced by a chatbot and nothing of value would be lost.

I agree, although we should note that the constant here is that I and this CEO both think jobs we aren’t doing could be replaced by bots.

But, really, I do think I’m right and they are wrong…

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#27
post #15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

try https://github.com/OpenInterpreter/open-interpreter . sysadmining stuff just got a whole lot easier. I've been admining Linux systems for over two decades, but I give LLMs a shot at dealing with some stupid Unix shit so I don't have to. it won't get 100% of the problems, but I can ask it to fix the mess made of, say, my system SSL certificate authorities, and it won't judge me for saying SSL and not TLS and it'll…

I've had very mixed experience with LLMs (Perplexity) and sysadmin stuff. More often than not I ask questions for specific CLI invocations and it will literally just make stuff up. This is even after (supposedly) Googling the documentation and analyzing it. Even today I got terrible advice from Claude about calling Close() on a database in Golang. This kind of stuff would screw over a junior Dev who didn't know bette…

I don't disagree. There's still value in having eg Linux sysadmin skills, because the LLM still doesn't always get to the solution, but I kick off the job and come back a bit later and don't need to try the basic stuff myself, which means I spend more times on the harder problems.

For some reason I don't run into hallucinations as much as other people seem to, assumedly because I'm on well trod paths, but being lied to like that is always a fear. I asked it about argocd and it told me there is a command line program for it and I didn't believe it and had to Google it for myself, which didn't save me time or energy, but I got to ask it how to do things instead of hooting hoping the documentation had the right example.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#28
post #15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

try https://github.com/OpenInterpreter/open-interpreter . sysadmining stuff just got a whole lot easier. I've been admining Linux systems for over two decades, but I give LLMs a shot at dealing with some stupid Unix shit so I don't have to. it won't get 100% of the problems, but I can ask it to fix the mess made of, say, my system SSL certificate authorities, and it won't judge me for saying SSL and not TLS and it'll…

I've had very mixed experience with LLMs (Perplexity) and sysadmin stuff. More often than not I ask questions for specific CLI invocations and it will literally just make stuff up. This is even after (supposedly) Googling the documentation and analyzing it. Even today I got terrible advice from Claude about calling Close() on a database in Golang. This kind of stuff would screw over a junior Dev who didn't know bette…

My work is trialing Microsoft’s Copilot for 365. So I have a built in chatbot in teams to ask various questions among other features.

Asking about specific Microsoft documentation it will just immediately bail and tell me to look that up on my own because it was built on training data up to 2022 and may not be fully up to date on the latest documentation. It won’t even link to the page last time I tried. It makes up PowerShell commands and suggested completely out of date options.

So Microsoft’s own AI assistant cannot even provide accurate information about the Microsoft products it is integrated with let alone anything else.

It can be useful for a short script but anything beyond that it is slower and less reliable than doing things myself.

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#29
I actually have a different hypothesis. The amount of professional developers is increasing exponentially since the invention of computers, at a pretty steady rate. It’s only possible because of increased tooling. I’m hoping that ai is powerful enough to keep this trend going

Re: In a leaked recording, AWS CEO tells most developers could stop coding soon

#30

So many bad takes in that article. It will be interesting to look back in 5+ years to see how things play out vs this unlimited optimism. > "everyone is a programmer now" I’ve heard this about so many things. Various tool they make everyone a programmer, or everyone a DBA. Nice dreams, that never seem to play out. Being a programmer isn’t about the syntax, it’s about breaking problems down, so they can logically be b…

I'll be afraid when AI takes a bug report with that typical one sentence problem description (like 'Paypal payments are not being processed, we loose 30k a day'), and fixes the problematic one line of code that the AI wrote before.
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