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Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

complexsystemspodcast.com

21–30 of 45 posts

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analogy to vertical farming is a tempting one, but ultimately misleading. There is a crucial difference between TI-produced natural gas and Saudi-produced gas: the former is carbon neutral, the latter isn't. For every molecule of CH4 TI creates, they're pulling a molecule of C02 out of the atmosphere to do it. When you burn a CH4 molecule from a Saudi well, you're moving carbon from the ground into the atmosphere…

Will you pay 10x for synthetic fuel? And if you do, for moral reasons, you will be driven out of the market by those burning cheaper fuel. Just like the cultured meat startups have learned, established players won't let you take away their subsidies and drive them out of business. Big Oil has rivers of money to lobby and make sure carbon-neutral fuel startups can't legislate them out of the market.

The fuel need not be 10x as expensive if you mine at the natural sources of hot CO₂. Which are steel-making furnaces, cement-making furnaces, and, well, carbon-burning power plants. All these industries can provide you with plenty of CO₂, reliably, at a zero or negative cost.

This makes the synthesis much more efficient, because you need far less energy and space to capture the CO₂.

Even if all power plants could turn carbon-free, steelmaking and production of cement cannot, they involve CO₂ as a key chemical step. Until 100% of steel is recycled, and concrete is replaced entirely by something else, you will still have stable, rich sources to run your synthesis off of.

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#22
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It makes no difference. Saudi Arabia won't stop pumping gas because it's not carbon neutral. edit Depleting their entire reserves of gas would be stopping because it's unsustainable , not because it's not carbon neutral. Also that sounds like a really bad idea.

Running out of gas in the ground will do that though.

[deleted]

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will you pay 10x for synthetic fuel? And if you do, for moral reasons, you will be driven out of the market by those burning cheaper fuel. Just like the cultured meat startups have learned, established players won't let you take away their subsidies and drive them out of business. Big Oil has rivers of money to lobby and make sure carbon-neutral fuel startups can't legislate them out of the market.

There is probably a market for 2-4x more expensive carbon-neutral aviation fuel. Most other fuel-consuming vehicles are better off going in a different direction, batteries or hydrogen fuel cells.

Probably. but, aviation margins are currently around 2.7%, while fuel constitutes 20% of their operating cost. Even if an airline switches a few of its aircrafts to 4x costlier carbon-neutral fuel, it's just so they can brag about it in their annual climate responsibility reports.

It is going to be hard to adopt 2-4x more expensive fuel across your fleet, just because.

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#24
post #2

Listened to this yesterday. Super enjoyable. Made the point that electricity in the future will be consumed much closer geographically to where it is generated than today - and so we probably don’t need huge interconnects - but much less close in time (because batteries).

This has considerable geopolitical implications. Fossil fuels are very mobile, so one can be flexible in siting energy-intensive industries.

But in a solar world, heavy industry will be at those places with the best solar resource. If you live in a renewable energy armpit, like say the eastern parts of Europe, your heavy industry is out of luck.

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#25
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will you pay 10x for synthetic fuel? And if you do, for moral reasons, you will be driven out of the market by those burning cheaper fuel. Just like the cultured meat startups have learned, established players won't let you take away their subsidies and drive them out of business. Big Oil has rivers of money to lobby and make sure carbon-neutral fuel startups can't legislate them out of the market.

The fuel need not be 10x as expensive if you mine at the natural sources of hot CO₂. Which are steel-making furnaces, cement-making furnaces, and, well, carbon-burning power plants. All these industries can provide you with plenty of CO₂, reliably, at a zero or negative cost. This makes the synthesis much more efficient, because you need far less energy and space to capture the CO₂. Even if all power plants could tur…

Scales poorly, and these C02 feeders can ruin your business overnight by imposing or jerking up fees once your operation is even remotely viable. What are you going to do? Teleport your facility?

The location advantage then becomes your greatest disadvantage.

it's just like installing solar in parts of the Sahara. Land is cheap and sunshine is abundant. Until an Al-Qaeda affiliate seizes one of your solar farms or the local government is overthrown and the coupists are trying to extort you. Now, how much will you spend hiring mercenaries to retake and occupy a foreign country, even if you discount international backlash?

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#26
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fuel need not be 10x as expensive if you mine at the natural sources of hot CO₂. Which are steel-making furnaces, cement-making furnaces, and, well, carbon-burning power plants. All these industries can provide you with plenty of CO₂, reliably, at a zero or negative cost. This makes the synthesis much more efficient, because you need far less energy and space to capture the CO₂. Even if all power plants could tur…

Scales poorly, and these C02 feeders can ruin your business overnight by imposing or jerking up fees once your operation is even remotely viable. What are you going to do? Teleport your facility? The location advantage then becomes your greatest disadvantage. it's just like installing solar in parts of the Sahara. Land is cheap and sunshine is abundant. Until an Al-Qaeda affiliate seizes one of your solar farms or th…

Scales poorly — any oil well has a particular debit, naturally limited. So will this.

The conflict of interest is real. This is why I expect the same companies that produce the CO₂ to process it into fuel. Say, steelmakers need a lot of pure oxygen, this is why they sell the liquid nitrogen they produce along the way. Similarly they extract and sell a number of metals that occur in the input ores in low concentrations and are not worth mining by themselves.

Regarding Sahara, the things are sadly as you described. But large industries are usually in politically more stable areas.

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analogy to vertical farming is a tempting one, but ultimately misleading. There is a crucial difference between TI-produced natural gas and Saudi-produced gas: the former is carbon neutral, the latter isn't. For every molecule of CH4 TI creates, they're pulling a molecule of C02 out of the atmosphere to do it. When you burn a CH4 molecule from a Saudi well, you're moving carbon from the ground into the atmosphere…

Will you pay 10x for synthetic fuel? And if you do, for moral reasons, you will be driven out of the market by those burning cheaper fuel. Just like the cultured meat startups have learned, established players won't let you take away their subsidies and drive them out of business. Big Oil has rivers of money to lobby and make sure carbon-neutral fuel startups can't legislate them out of the market.

> "Big Oil has rivers of money to lobby and make sure carbon-neutral fuel startups can't legislate them out of the market."

I'm not trying to take an endorsing position on e-fuels, but wanted to note Prometheus talked in one of their interviews and argued they would work around tensions with 'big oil' not via legislation but having direct customer relationships with competitive price commitments:

From interview of Rob McGinnis ( https://curiositypodcast.substack.com/p/future-of-sustainabl... ) of Prometheus Fuels:

"We have not gone to raise money from anybody in oil and gas. We've always said we wanted to go to our customers and form relations with them. So that's why a car company and a shipping company, for example. And we did LOIs with airlines. The ones that got published was with American Airlines. We said we'd give them 10 million gallons of jet fuel for one cent less than the spot price of Jet A."

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#28
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Synthetic hydrocarbons will likely fail, simply because of the same reasons vertical farming failed. Once you're spending money on infrastructure to capture solar energy, losing 80% to inefficiency, before piping into your vertical farm via LEDs (losing another 50% to 80%), a farmer who draws free sunshine will outcompete you because he's using free energy while you're spending millions to power a small factory sized…

Their thesis is probably that solar electricity will soon be (as an example) 1/10th the price of natural gas electricity and that they believe they can get 10-30% storage/conversion efficiency. Therefore, the price of synthetic natural gas will be cheaper than current natural gas. There are a number of acknowledged assumptions in that model and other potential problems that may make their thesis incorrect, but you ha…

No.

Parent directly challenged the model because of thermodynamic loss and expense v. substitutes.

E-fuels is contingent on subsidies, and you can't just wand away costs with a renewables price decline. These plants require firmed up renewables supply shape that a solar or wind farm can't provide alone. What's that mean? $$$

Another thing, most of the metal in these facilities doesn't have a price decline curve. The ramp to parity is long and level.

Re: Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

#29
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their thesis is probably that solar electricity will soon be (as an example) 1/10th the price of natural gas electricity and that they believe they can get 10-30% storage/conversion efficiency. Therefore, the price of synthetic natural gas will be cheaper than current natural gas. There are a number of acknowledged assumptions in that model and other potential problems that may make their thesis incorrect, but you ha…

No. Parent directly challenged the model because of thermodynamic loss and expense v. substitutes. E-fuels is contingent on subsidies, and you can't just wand away costs with a renewables price decline. These plants require firmed up renewables supply shape that a solar or wind farm can't provide alone. What's that mean? $$$ Another thing, most of the metal in these facilities doesn't have a price decline curve. The…

First, they did not seem to make a thermodynamic loss argument. They made that argument for vertical farming versus regular farming to argue that the inputs to regular farming are cheaper because they are not harvesting solar energy with extra steps. That is a perfectly cogent argument because the inputs are the same in both cases. You can not make the same argument for solar energy versus drilling costs without making the reader fill in a ridiculous number of gaps in the argument.

Even assuming they did obliquely try to make a thermodynamic loss argument, it is irrelevant. Thermodynamic efficiency is not really related to electricity costs except indirectly otherwise we would all be using ultra-expensive 30% efficiency solar panels instead of cheap as dirt 10-20% efficiency solar panels. It is a contributor, but the core question is price efficiency of the non-"drilled hydrocarbon" energy commodity.

The thesis is that non-subsidized solar energy-derived electricity will be cheap enough relative to hydrocarbon synthesis efficiency that it will be cheaper to synthesize than drilling it out of the ground (at current prices). There are many ways to reject that thesis, of which you present at least a few, but the comment I was responding to did not bring them up.

Given their other responses, they keep acting as if the thesis is: "We will make synthetic hydrocarbons that are 10x more expensive than harvested hydrocarbons, but we expect people to buy them anyways for reasons" which is obviously a strawman. The point of the discussion is entirely in whether it will be 10x more expensive, where one side claims it will be cost-competitive and the other side disagrees. To that end, here are some options including ones you brought up that at least provide potential counter-arguments for the actual point under contention:

1. Solar energy is actually non-viable, but subsidies make it, incorrectly, seem viable.

2. Solar energy will not continue to become cheaper exponentially and reach a low enough price.

3. Solar energy will become very cheap, but synthesis will be too cost-inefficient anyways.

4. Synthesis is cost-efficient on a per-unit basis, but requires capital intensive processes that only pay back if continuously active which solar can not provide.

5. Synthesis is only efficient at the margins right now. There is actually a lot of cheaply accessible hydrocarbons that can accept price reductions and still remain viable. All you will actually displace is a tiny edge of barely profitable hydrocarbons until there are even more significant cost reductions.

6. Solar energy cost reductions will also reduce hydrocarbon harvesting costs in a relative proportion that keeps harvesting viable.

7. They just suck at execution.

8. Something else.

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