Live data from Hacker News

the US Navy's warship production is in its worst state in 25 years. Why

apnews.com

21–23 of 23 posts

Re: the US Navy's warship production is in its worst state in 25 years. Why

#21

lower-cost warships. They have lost the ability to build horse carriages too, but then they are both kind of useless, and think of the money they save? They have saved a hell of a lot of money complaining while doing nothing.

"The labor shortage is one of myriad challenges that have led to backlogs in ship production and maintenance at a time when the Navy faces expanding global threats. " The Navy is propanganding into Fear, Uncertainty and doubt. They said the exact thing about Nuclear Weapons. So... if we do not build them, then diplomacy becomes more important. What would we do without global war?

To a certain extent diplomacy requires intimidation. If both parties benefit from the negotiations but there would be no downsides to defying agreed upon terms the diplomacy has failed. The entire point is to place restrictions to discourage or disable externally harmful behaviour. You can't do that if you can't place hard boundaries, and sadly enough one of the few ways to place those hard boundaries is with the threat of violence. Be that economic, cultural, physical, or mental.

The dominant power in an era has always used that intimidation performed via the implication of violence to force everyone into the boundaries of the agreed upon terms.

The goal would be in the end transitioning away from tools of war to tools of enforcement. The issue is that the overlap between the two is vast and repurposing the latter for the former is very easy. Which brings things full circle when the diplomacy required for enforcement fails and intimidation has to be used. There is a time for one and a time for the other, but we as a species are really bad at transitioning because being the intimidator is incredibly advantageous and thus very alluring for the leading party responsible for enforcement. The only ways to stop it are for another party to exceed the limits of the enforcement too quickly to react to (what the U.S. did to the British), marathoning an expansion of violent capabilities (what the U.S. did to the USSR and what China's currently doing to the U.S.), or factions within the dominant party starving the faction responsible for enforcement before said faction turns to war (the only time I can think of this happening being Luxembourg to Prussia). As we can see from the article the most common tactic is the second.

Re: the US Navy's warship production is in its worst state in 25 years. Why

#22
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a couple of $5M apiece hypersonics could easily sink a destroyer, even with a conventional payload. Red Sea has shown just how useless warships are nowadays against an adversary with any kind of long range anti ship capability. The entire strike groups had to hightail outta there once the more potent stuff started flying

Look at the implications of what you're arguing though. Without protection, you don't have wartime logistics. Without logistics, you don't have force projection. Without force projection, you're missing a central pillar of US international relations and the current world order. Shipbuilding deeply tied into the US military's goals.

Sometimes implication follows conclusion and it's not a matter of argument but facing reality. If conclusion is large surface combatants aren't survivable, then maybe bad idea to double down on large surface combatants. Problem is navy institutional inertia/identity depends on building big ships, with 11+9 carriers mandated by law. The other implication is if large surface combatants, and US to some degree needs largish combatants with high endurance to run global missions, is not survivable, then maybe US naval/expeditionary model is not viable and if there's no alternative (can't protect global basing without survivable global navy) a lot of dominos start falling.

Re: the US Navy's warship production is in its worst state in 25 years. Why

#23
I think USNI recently released report that PRC now has 630x more ship building capacity (up from 300x estimate last year), Jiangnan Shipyard itself has more capacity than _entire_ US ship building, PRC shipbuilding last year was something like ~40M dead weight tons which is around US 5 year ship building during WW2. All of which is to say US ship building is indeed in the toilets, but also PRC ship building / industrial output is _significantly_ greater than US at her most productive.

IMO which really begs the question... why is the PRC navy so small? Yeah PLAN has the most hulls, but still ~2/3 the displacement. One would expect projected gap would trend to _multiple_ times larger than USN, not just current prediction of PLAN ~400 vs USN ~300 by 2030. Why is PLAN building carriers so slowly? Why are they building lots of smaller surface combatants and about to spam a lot of subs. Why are they not urgently rushing the carrier + large surface combatant displacement game despite being able to build entire USN displacement in a few months. IMO maybe they don't think surface combatants are going to survive in a shooting war either. Maybe US planners knows this to, but can't admit it publically, but directing aquisitions behind the scenes accordingly. Meanwhile you're going to get lots of navy folks who likes their big ships advocate for building big ships, which granted, having at least semi competent shipyards is real need to sustain current USN global posture even if it's not appropriate for a future peer war.

Post reply on HN