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China is stockpiling – we must do the same

thetimes.com

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Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#21

Post by woooooo »

Gathering6678 wrote: post #4

"it is spending about $700 billion" Where is the number from? Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates China's military expenditure in 2022 to be $292.0 billion, trailing $877.0 billion of US. (source: [Wikipedia]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_China )) There are not a lot more numbers (let alone numbers with sources) in the article. China has a lot of EV batteries because it is l…

Once you realize the goal of these articles is to funnel US money into defense spending, they make a lot more sense.

Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#22

Post by more_corn »

woooooo wrote: post #21
Gathering6678 wrote: post #4

"it is spending about $700 billion" Where is the number from? Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates China's military expenditure in 2022 to be $292.0 billion, trailing $877.0 billion of US. (source: [Wikipedia]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_China )) There are not a lot more numbers (let alone numbers with sources) in the article. China has a lot of EV batteries because it is l…

Once you realize the goal of these articles is to funnel US money into defense spending, they make a lot more sense.

I think the author genuinely thinks that China plans to invade Taiwan in 2027 (since they’ve said that) and if so the current massive buildup in commodities stocks are preparation for the invasion.

Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#23

Post by more_corn »

OutOfHere wrote: post #7

China is accumulating commodities that will make its currency a dominating one in the global reserve currency space. It's a long term play, and I don't believe it has anything to do with Trump or Taiwan.

So, China which refuses to acknowledge that Taiwan is a country, and which has informed its military to prepare all options for reunification by 2027… are you predicting that they will NOT invade Taiwan? And how much money would you like to put down on your prediction?

Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#24

Post by snapplebobapple »

This guy misses the point (although he is right we should be stockpiling munitions and a bunch of other strategic things). China has to stockpile because they are net importers of almost all raw resources and a decently long list of countries can field a naval force strong enough to, for example, block the strait of malacca which would hobble them in months, not years. There's no equivalent for America on everything (There are pain points like semiconductors but they are pain points for everyone, not just america. The big ticket items (food and energy) can be handled internally at this point).

Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#25

Post by EricE »

McDyver wrote: post #5

This opinion piece is so loaded with fear mongering, divisiveness and subtle suggestions of "faits accomplis", that I can't read it without propaganda alarms sounding everywhere

Yes - and mostly completely negated by de-emphasizing the very misnamed "green" agenda.

Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#26

Post by woooooo »

more_corn wrote: post #22
woooooo wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once you realize the goal of these articles is to funnel US money into defense spending, they make a lot more sense.

I think the author genuinely thinks that China plans to invade Taiwan in 2027 (since they’ve said that) and if so the current massive buildup in commodities stocks are preparation for the invasion.

There's an interesting good faith discussion in handicapping that possibility. It sounds crazy, but so did Ukraine, and Xi has done some crazy stuff lately.

I'm saying that articles like this aren't in good faith. More fear = more funding. It doesn't matter what the author believes, they can always find a different author.

Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#27

Post by OutOfHere »

more_corn wrote: post #23
OutOfHere wrote: post #7

China is accumulating commodities that will make its currency a dominating one in the global reserve currency space. It's a long term play, and I don't believe it has anything to do with Trump or Taiwan.

So, China which refuses to acknowledge that Taiwan is a country, and which has informed its military to prepare all options for reunification by 2027… are you predicting that they will NOT invade Taiwan? And how much money would you like to put down on your prediction?

Oh I am not claiming that China will not invade Taiwan, only that stockpiling commodities has a simpler explanation which I elucidated.

Regarding Taiwan, China has been running simulations. Recently the US introduced a new aerial weapon to destroy Chinese naval ships, so I would say that the results of China's simulations are not looking too promising for China at this time, but things change.

Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#28

Post by DrScientist »

polotics wrote: post #20
DrScientist wrote: post #11

Places like China and India etc have huge human resources and will inevitably [1] catch up the West in terms of economic power. We have two broad choices - brutally suppress development in these countries to remain 'top dog' or - continue to build those international structures that were founded after the second world war - like the UN, that were designed to stop a repeat of WWII. I fear the current approach of unpic…

The notion that it is the UN and other such organisations that led to the period of (relative) peace in the 20th century post-WW2 is very far fetched. I would bet instead on these five horsemen of the peace, in order: - Mutually Assured Destruction risks - No unmanageable effects of CO2-induced climate disruption - Plenty of available oil to burn, with high EROEI - Plentiful resources and enough growth all-round - Th…

You've made an important distinction between the real competition for resources - that's needed to survive, like water, food, energy - and simple nationalistic 'top dog' type competition.

And in reality, there is enough energy, food and water to go around - the only thing that creates conflict over those is excessive fear or greed. I'm arguing you need these international organisms to create peer shame on the greed, and reduce the fear through regular contact and peaceful ways to reduce conflict.

Re: China is stockpiling – we must do the same

#29

Post by DrScientist »

deeth_starr_v wrote: post #19
DrScientist wrote: post #11

Places like China and India etc have huge human resources and will inevitably [1] catch up the West in terms of economic power. We have two broad choices - brutally suppress development in these countries to remain 'top dog' or - continue to build those international structures that were founded after the second world war - like the UN, that were designed to stop a repeat of WWII. I fear the current approach of unpic…

Seems like you are presenting a false choice. China has clearly stated its intention to compete and overtake the US as a core power. If the US is able to build and maintain strategic partnerships and military deterrence then that ascension of China would be less risky. I disagree with your whole premise of competition as “brutal suppression”. The most likely outcome of the trade war is that China will eventually have…

Obviously there are ways to muddle through the middle.

However let's be clear there are hawks that see war as a legitimate tool, and they are the people that are trying to undermine international mechanisms that shackle the unilateral action of states - because they want to use that freedom.

Nothing wrong with staying strong - though it can create fear if you don't also talk - and indeed you could argue that's the approach China is taking - it's not been involved in countless foreign wars like the US over the last few decades, but it has been building capability - but wouldn't you given the aggressive behaviour of the US?

The question is - is the solution further escalation or some descalation?

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