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Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

thehobbyist.substack.com

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Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#21

Post by interroboink »

This is an important topic to me, and I'm glad to see one of the "winners" state plainly how much luck is involved in poker, and by analogy, many other areas of life.

I'd love to see articles like this written by someone who did not win, too. It's too bad that people pay less attention to those stories, as he mentioned in the article (c.f. clickbaity title). At least this is a winner admitting the importance of luck, rather than just saying "do what I did, and you can win too!" [1]

I'm surprised there was no mention of modern machine learning "solvers" for poker, which can get very close to perfect play. The game is not truly solved in the game-theoretic sense, but so close as to make very little difference, as I understand it. Some professional players do strange things like look at the second hand of their watch, as a source of randomness as input to their decision making, since ideal play requires some true randomness in your actions.[2]

So, in addition to the "results-based vs. process-based" angles presented in the article, I'd say there's also a "mathematics-based" consideration. At least for poker, where all the rules are perfectly clear. Harder to apply that to real-life poker-esque situations like founding startups, of course.

[1] As always, relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/1827/

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/magazine/ai-technology-po... — NYT "How A.I. Conquered Poker" (alt link: https://archive.is/QbXXE)

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#22

Post by interroboink »

saucymew wrote: post #8

"Poker is a combination of luck and skill. People think mastering the skill is hard, but they're wrong. The trick to poker is mastering the luck. That's philosophy. Understanding luck is philosophy, and there are some people who aren't ever gonna fade it. That's what sets poker apart. And that's what keeps everyone coming back for more." -- Shut Up & Deal

> mastering the luck

I feel there are multiple notions of "luck" in common use and the ambiguous term leads to misunderstandings.

In my mind, the purest form of luck is, by definition, not something that can be mastered. It is 100% beyond one's control to influence. Examples might include: your genetics, flipping a fair coin, etc.

But lots of people talk about "luck" as though it's something that somehow one take advantage of in a willful way. They say "make your own luck." Or perhaps "put yourself in situations where you're more likely get lucky." Or maybe "master luck"?

That's all fine, and is a worthwhile topic, but I would call that "skill". Maximizing one's odds of something (even something involving luck) is a skill.

Perhaps by "mastering luck" they mean not allowing it to psych you out — even if you're on a long losing streak, even while doing everything right. But again, I'd say saying level-headed is a straightforward skill (difficult though it may be).

Anyway, that's my little rant on the ambiguity of the term "luck" (:

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#23

Post by interroboink »

trhway wrote: post #16
saucymew wrote: post #8

"Poker is a combination of luck and skill. People think mastering the skill is hard, but they're wrong. The trick to poker is mastering the luck. That's philosophy. Understanding luck is philosophy, and there are some people who aren't ever gonna fade it. That's what sets poker apart. And that's what keeps everyone coming back for more." -- Shut Up & Deal

>Poker is a combination of luck and skill Luck follows (or at least positively correlates) with skill :) 30+ years ago in our company of friends in the university dormitories we had a guy who had the card deck handling skills of a major illusionist (and those skills were naturally a source of significant income for him). The guy was also tremendously lucky - well beside mere being alive and without broken bones while…

I'm not sure I follow... You feel that his skills as an illusionist somehow helped him win on that scratch lottery ticket?

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#25

Post by keyle »

ryandrake wrote: post #6

His section on volume rings pretty true. I used to play a lot recreationally. And by "a lot" I mean probably on the medium-to-high side of recreational, but not even close to pro. Like attending every major regional event and attending WSOP every year for 10 years. Both cash and tournaments. I've stopped because of how much of a tiring grind poker is, and how much time you have to dedicate in order to make it financi…

Thanks for your candid report. Not enough people tell it how it is, and everyone thinks they're special.

Fact is, a lot of top players also have deals on the side, with brands and ambassador things. I feel you need those deals to make up for the bad runs.

I love the game, but the variance can inflate egos and the grind makes other hobbies more attractive.

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#26

Post by ryandrake »

keyle wrote: post #25
ryandrake wrote: post #6

His section on volume rings pretty true. I used to play a lot recreationally. And by "a lot" I mean probably on the medium-to-high side of recreational, but not even close to pro. Like attending every major regional event and attending WSOP every year for 10 years. Both cash and tournaments. I've stopped because of how much of a tiring grind poker is, and how much time you have to dedicate in order to make it financi…

Thanks for your candid report. Not enough people tell it how it is, and everyone thinks they're special. Fact is, a lot of top players also have deals on the side, with brands and ambassador things. I feel you need those deals to make up for the bad runs. I love the game, but the variance can inflate egos and the grind makes other hobbies more attractive.

> Thanks for your candid report. Not enough people tell it how it is, and everyone thinks they're special.

That's a good point, too, one I failed to mention. A lot of people are losing poker players, but they don't know it. They don't keep records, and they don't manage and analyze their bankroll over time. A losing poker player has a negative EV. If you buy in to 20 $1000 tournaments, bink one of them for $15K, you're on top of the world, but guess what, you're a losing poker player. Cash players are even worse. They donk off $500 a night but only remember that time last week when they were up $5000 and cashed out. Congratulations, but your EV is still negative.

By my own measure, I was a losing poker player for most of my years playing the game, and I have a spreadsheet to prove it.

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#28

Post by jSully24 »

ryandrake wrote: post #26
keyle wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for your candid report. Not enough people tell it how it is, and everyone thinks they're special. Fact is, a lot of top players also have deals on the side, with brands and ambassador things. I feel you need those deals to make up for the bad runs. I love the game, but the variance can inflate egos and the grind makes other hobbies more attractive.

> Thanks for your candid report. Not enough people tell it how it is, and everyone thinks they're special. That's a good point, too, one I failed to mention. A lot of people are losing poker players, but they don't know it. They don't keep records, and they don't manage and analyze their bankroll over time. A losing poker player has a negative EV. If you buy in to 20 $1000 tournaments, bink one of them for $15K, you'…

I thought this describes many gamblers: remember the wins, quickly forget the losers, be it pull tabs, blackjack, slots, etc.

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#29

Post by eschneider »

interroboink wrote: post #23
trhway wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Poker is a combination of luck and skill Luck follows (or at least positively correlates) with skill :) 30+ years ago in our company of friends in the university dormitories we had a guy who had the card deck handling skills of a major illusionist (and those skills were naturally a source of significant income for him). The guy was also tremendously lucky - well beside mere being alive and without broken bones while…

I'm not sure I follow... You feel that his skills as an illusionist somehow helped him win on that scratch lottery ticket?

I used to be the absolute BEST at scratch lottery tickets. OTOH, "every ticket a winner" used to be a thing, and I had free access to an MRI machine at the time.

Sometimes, you make your own luck...

Re: Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind

#30

Post by woah »

> Once you have identified an activity as being more luck than skill driven, a person’s process for the activity starts to become a much stronger signal for whether or not they are actually any good.

This is the central point of the article, and I don't think it's true. If it were as easy as "following a good process", then anyone could get rich investing.

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