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Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

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Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#21
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Negative income tax? Does that mean the government pays me to work?

Yes-ish. But your employer knows. And he might immediately apply "you'll need less money from me, now" logic.

Your employer may already be getting paid by a government for you to work, but that is above your pay grade.

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#22
$1000 is not enough to quit their jobs or get a nice apartment. They could move slightly closer to work if they have to commute.

It's not enough for a real tuition or to support them to study instead of work.

I don't think we've ever had a universal basic income test. We have always missed the universal and basic part. It's below basic and not at all universal.

I suspect that you need to get international cooperation and a more sophisticated form of money and resource tracking for a real UBI to be feasible.

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#23

This is a pretty generous reading of the study. One result they are missing out is that the income actually reduced overall employment compared to the control group, and ended up decreasing household earnings: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32719 Even with a generous reading, it was an extremely expensive study. And similar proposals like the Negative Income Tax would cost far less money and have none of the presented…

It's literally the second paragraph:

> They also worked less on average but remained engaged in the workforce and were more deliberate in their job searches compared with a control group.

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#24
post #22

$1000 is not enough to quit their jobs or get a nice apartment. They could move slightly closer to work if they have to commute. It's not enough for a real tuition or to support them to study instead of work. I don't think we've ever had a universal basic income test. We have always missed the universal and basic part. It's below basic and not at all universal. I suspect that you need to get international cooperation…

At those levels you just get inflation

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#25

This is a pretty generous reading of the study. One result they are missing out is that the income actually reduced overall employment compared to the control group, and ended up decreasing household earnings: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32719 Even with a generous reading, it was an extremely expensive study. And similar proposals like the Negative Income Tax would cost far less money and have none of the presented…

Why is it some shock-horror thing that people worked less? I think, for those who imagine AI taking a vast swath of jobs (like Altman), the aim for basic income is to get people working less but without this resulting social/work disengagement (whether AI will have that effect is a different matter).

> Why is it some shock-horror thing that people worked less?

Exactly. If I have to have 3 jobs, then with this money I "only" work 2 jobs, I'm working less but almost certainly have a better quality of life.

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#26

This is a pretty generous reading of the study. One result they are missing out is that the income actually reduced overall employment compared to the control group, and ended up decreasing household earnings: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32719 Even with a generous reading, it was an extremely expensive study. And similar proposals like the Negative Income Tax would cost far less money and have none of the presented…

> And similar proposals like the Negative Income Tax would cost far less money and have none of the presented downsides.

It all depends on how you tweak the numbers; in theory a negative income tax and a guaranteed income cost exactly the same amount. A guaranteed income of $1200 taxed at a marginal rate of 50% is just the same as a marginal tax rate of -50% on an income of $400. That being said, there are some pretty big negative externalities to a negative income tax, in the sense that it even further overburdens the tax system with knowing people's exact monthly income (assuming monthly payments), which is not-at-all straightforward for the poorest taxpayers whom presumably such a system would be designed to most help.

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Negative income tax? Does that mean the government pays me to work?

I think something like this already exists in the U.S. It's called the Earned Income Tax Credit. Low income people may get a tax credit that could result in a bigger refund. Effectively, some people are getting money they woudln't be getting without working. It makes a lot of sense, imo. https://www.irs.gov/publications/p596

The U.S. Government also pays farmers not to grow crops! See, e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program (https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/conservation-...).

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#28
post #22

$1000 is not enough to quit their jobs or get a nice apartment. They could move slightly closer to work if they have to commute. It's not enough for a real tuition or to support them to study instead of work. I don't think we've ever had a universal basic income test. We have always missed the universal and basic part. It's below basic and not at all universal. I suspect that you need to get international cooperation…

People have different definitions of UBI, but in my mind 'basic' doesn't translate to quitting your job and not working. People in a functioning society still have to work.

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#29
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Negative income tax? Does that mean the government pays me to work?

Yes-ish. But your employer knows. And he might immediately apply "you'll need less money from me, now" logic.

so it's a handout to companies. corporate welfare. probably no worse than currently - a lot of companies in the UK are subsidised via the benefits system because their employees can't afford to live off their wages.

Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available

#30
post #22

$1000 is not enough to quit their jobs or get a nice apartment. They could move slightly closer to work if they have to commute. It's not enough for a real tuition or to support them to study instead of work. I don't think we've ever had a universal basic income test. We have always missed the universal and basic part. It's below basic and not at all universal. I suspect that you need to get international cooperation…

Imagine if we gave everyone $20/mo. No strings, tax free, not qualifed by income. That obviously isn't enough to live on, let alone buy food. But imagine the infrastructure that would be universally in place to allow us to scale it up as a society. We could find the balance. Maybe it's $1000, maybe it's $5000. Maybe another global pandemic happens and we need to dump an infusion into people's lives for a time. Just having the system would be powerful.
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