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10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

miamiherald.com

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Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#21

Post by stackskipton »

wkat4242 wrote: post #11
giancarlostoro wrote: post #6

I wonder what a sensible way forward for Cubans is, and their government. What would it take for the US to lift sanctions (I assume a radical shift within Cuba's government), and for Cuba itself (as a whole) to restructure their government in a way that would benefit them and everyone. Cuba would be a great travel destination. Their cigars aren't as on par anymore as far as I know, but there's potential there, Nicara…

Why does the US still have sanctions on them anyway? The missile crisis was 50 years ago. It's time to forgive.

Politics. Florida used to be swing state in Presidential Elections. The Cuban community in Florida loses their shit if President talks about lifting the sanctions and will vote other way. If all Cubans had settled in California or Wyoming, we likely would have lifted sanctions a long time ago since they wouldn't have as much political power. It's why we lifted sanctions on Vietnam so long ago. Vietnamese who fled mostly immigrated to California and can't impact California voting Democrat.

Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#22

Post by paleotrope »

anovikov wrote: post #8
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK wrote: post #2

Looks like the main reason is - Cuba's two main benefactors stopped supplying fuel on the cheap, as they have their hands full with their own crises.

I see it as complete opposite. They did it because they could: for a long while, U.S. admitted virtually everyone as a refugee without even an attempt to cook up a plausible story. That happened only in 2022-2024. It's a no brainer to see no one ever wanted to live in Cuba. Trick is having a place to go. Until the politically opportunistic immigration loophole was closed this year, they had.

Cuba would be quite a desirable place to live if it wasn't a socialist authoritarian state

Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#23

Post by seniorivn »

chaorace wrote: post #16
V__ wrote: post #9

> Most of those migrants have come to the United States in what experts call the most significant migration wave in Cuban history. With the destabilization that a population drop of 10% has, the potential for more migration in the long term and the associated costs... Wouldn't it make sense for the U.S. to invest and help Cuba? It would also have the additional benefit of maybe depriving Russia of an ally.

The current U.S. position towards Cuba continues to puzzle me. Their geopolitical stance is nowhere near being on the same level as North Korea or Iran. Given Cuba's proximity and relative productive capacity you'd think that we'd be easy allies if only they hadn't upset a bunch of dead politicians 60 years ago.

They are a hostile dictatorship, with zero resources but their oppressed people. Why would USA be interested in allying with them?

Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#24

Post by reducesuffering »

chaorace wrote: post #16
V__ wrote: post #9

> Most of those migrants have come to the United States in what experts call the most significant migration wave in Cuban history. With the destabilization that a population drop of 10% has, the potential for more migration in the long term and the associated costs... Wouldn't it make sense for the U.S. to invest and help Cuba? It would also have the additional benefit of maybe depriving Russia of an ally.

The current U.S. position towards Cuba continues to puzzle me. Their geopolitical stance is nowhere near being on the same level as North Korea or Iran. Given Cuba's proximity and relative productive capacity you'd think that we'd be easy allies if only they hadn't upset a bunch of dead politicians 60 years ago.

While Florida was/is a swing state in US elections, whoever secures the ex-Cuban vote wins a massive amount of electoral votes. Republicans are fine jockeying against Cuba "because communism", and so the Democrats are in a pickle in that the right thing to do would be to improve relations with Cuba but it guarantees to hand Florida over to the Republicans who will then have the presidency and proceed to treat Cuba as-is.

If Florida remains reliably Republican anyway, it's possible the Democrats may get enough electoral support from the rest of the country to still win future presidencies and ease up on Cuba without caring about the Florida ex-Cuban vote.

Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#25

Post by adolph »

V__ wrote: post #9

> Most of those migrants have come to the United States in what experts call the most significant migration wave in Cuban history. With the destabilization that a population drop of 10% has, the potential for more migration in the long term and the associated costs... Wouldn't it make sense for the U.S. to invest and help Cuba? It would also have the additional benefit of maybe depriving Russia of an ally.

Change is the hardest part of changing US policy towards Cuba because the legal and regulatory elements are old and thus deeply baked in to ongoing operations. Potential alignment of Cuba for other adversaries isn’t a serious enough threat nor engagement a sufficient benefit to overcome government inertia. Cuba isn’t as much of a mess as Haiti and also isn’t a tiny success like Singapore.

Here is hoping that Cuba will be able to help itself out of a perhaps weakening despotism but the default hypothesis is not to hold one’s breath.

Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#27

Post by vundercind »

wkat4242 wrote: post #11
giancarlostoro wrote: post #6

I wonder what a sensible way forward for Cubans is, and their government. What would it take for the US to lift sanctions (I assume a radical shift within Cuba's government), and for Cuba itself (as a whole) to restructure their government in a way that would benefit them and everyone. Cuba would be a great travel destination. Their cigars aren't as on par anymore as far as I know, but there's potential there, Nicara…

Why does the US still have sanctions on them anyway? The missile crisis was 50 years ago. It's time to forgive.

A bunch of Floridians who are, or are descended from, folks who had their land and businesses seized during the revolution are holding grudges and won’t let go of them until they’re given their stuff back or a ton of money, which, this far on, isn’t happening.

Florida is important in Presidential elections.

US elections are structured such that dumb stuff like a relatively small—but loud—and also hopeless interest in a single US state can influence policy and make a whole bunch more lives worse for no good reason.

AFAIK that’s basically the story.

Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#28

Post by [deleted] »

seniorivn wrote: post #23
chaorace wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current U.S. position towards Cuba continues to puzzle me. Their geopolitical stance is nowhere near being on the same level as North Korea or Iran. Given Cuba's proximity and relative productive capacity you'd think that we'd be easy allies if only they hadn't upset a bunch of dead politicians 60 years ago.

They are a hostile dictatorship, with zero resources but their oppressed people. Why would USA be interested in allying with them?

[deleted]

Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#29

Post by westpfelia »

xyzzy4747 wrote: post #19

[flagged]

I mean when there is mass embargoes against your country so much so that normal everyday things we take for grated are hard to get things can become tough.

But we could also just say "lamo commy dont werk" without understanding the geopolitical reasons for why a country might be struggling.

Re: 10% of Cubans left Cuba between 2022 and 2023

#30

Post by rqtwteye »

stackskipton wrote: post #21
wkat4242 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the US still have sanctions on them anyway? The missile crisis was 50 years ago. It's time to forgive.

Politics. Florida used to be swing state in Presidential Elections. The Cuban community in Florida loses their shit if President talks about lifting the sanctions and will vote other way. If all Cubans had settled in California or Wyoming, we likely would have lifted sanctions a long time ago since they wouldn't have as much political power. It's why we lifted sanctions on Vietnam so long ago. Vietnamese who fled mos…

It almost seems the Cuban exiles want the people they left behind in Cuba to suffer as much as possible. What else have the sanctions achieved?
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