Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

ft.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 31 posts

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#21

Post by hakfoo »

pfannkuchen wrote: post #20
hakfoo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way they've completely given up on education is the key evidence they have no economic vision. No matter what stimulus hack you do for the next quarter, you need to be educating the next generation in a way that leaves us competitive with other industrial powers. They don't even talk about outcomes and scores anymore-- they just stoke social warfare. You know, if the kids are reading because there's an "OMG OBSCE…

American manufacturing won’t have to compete on a level playing field with foreign competition if there are significant tariffs though, which is part of the platform AFAIK. So I guess it would fit as “making things Americans buy”?

I can't imagine that being a compelling sales pitch even to domestic investors.

If Americans are trapped by tarrifs and have to buy whatever domestic-made rubbish is available, and you're not getting a high-quality workforce, why bother investing anything in new designs and manufacturing; hell, break out the old tooling and start cranking out Chrysler LeBarons again!

It's like we're determined to emulate the rapid economic miracles of Japan, South Korea, and the PRC but in reverse. And it's not even out of some principled stand like "we need degrowth to save the environment", but because rich people don't want to pay taxes for schools and infrastructure.

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#22

Post by downrightmike »

techostritch wrote: post #6
verdverm wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand... 1. How a few people translate to the entire SV... (well, I do because hyperbole is what media does now, they stopped being journalists) 2. What the GOP platform is for prices & inflation. Tax cuts, 10% tariffs, forcing interest rate cuts, and mass deportation would all seem to lead to more money in the economy or direct price increases

> 2. What the GOP platform is for prices & inflation. Tax cuts, 10% tariffs, forcing interest rate cuts, and mass deportation would all seem to lead to more money in the economy or direct price increases I hate to be this cynical because I think policymakers and economists who lean in different ideological differences all have contributions to make, and in some way probably value right wing economic ideas slightly mo…

Tariffs never work to reduce inflation, they do the opposite, its been done over and again by the dumbest minds in the world because it sounds like it should work, but it doesn't actually hold up.

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#23

Post by pfannkuchen »

hakfoo wrote: post #21
pfannkuchen wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American manufacturing won’t have to compete on a level playing field with foreign competition if there are significant tariffs though, which is part of the platform AFAIK. So I guess it would fit as “making things Americans buy”?

I can't imagine that being a compelling sales pitch even to domestic investors. If Americans are trapped by tarrifs and have to buy whatever domestic-made rubbish is available, and you're not getting a high-quality workforce, why bother investing anything in new designs and manufacturing; hell, break out the old tooling and start cranking out Chrysler LeBarons again! It's like we're determined to emulate the rapid ec…

It’s not a compelling sales pitch to investors anywhere, I don’t think that’s the point. It’s a compelling sales pitch to workers in regions where economic prospects have dropped off a cliff in the past few decades. If you have no personal ties to those areas it may be hard to relate.

I don’t see why this would equate to low quality. Domestic companies are free to compete. Many countries have historically boot strapped industry through heavy use of tariffs. Japan is a great example, their auto industry likely wouldn’t exist without heavy tariffs in the beginning and China has extremely protectionist economic policy to this day.

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#24

Post by taylodl »

p51-remorse wrote: post #13
taylodl wrote: post #3

I don't understand this myopic thinking. Maybe a Trump administration will deregulate Big Tech, but how does that help you when the EU will just block you and fine you? What's the real gain to be had there? What's the point in having your tax burden reduced if it means realizing greater interest? Have they forgotten that Trump had the largest increase in US deficits in history? Have they forgotten that those deficits…

> how does that help you when the EU will just block you and fine you? Well, which candidate is more likely to push back on those rules? The US has plenty of ways to put pressure on foreign law; the current admin just hasn’t been doing it.

And how did Trump's ham-fisted approach to China work out for us? Lost an export market for American farmers, put supply chains in havoc - and this was before the pandemic.

Chaos is not good for business.

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#25

Post by taylodl »

pfannkuchen wrote: post #20
hakfoo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way they've completely given up on education is the key evidence they have no economic vision. No matter what stimulus hack you do for the next quarter, you need to be educating the next generation in a way that leaves us competitive with other industrial powers. They don't even talk about outcomes and scores anymore-- they just stoke social warfare. You know, if the kids are reading because there's an "OMG OBSCE…

American manufacturing won’t have to compete on a level playing field with foreign competition if there are significant tariffs though, which is part of the platform AFAIK. So I guess it would fit as “making things Americans buy”?

In other words, isolationism and pandering to an ever-shrinking market. There's no growth and no future in such a scenario. The hilarious thing is that these SV CEOs believe the US can adopt these policies and it won't affect their business abroad. It just shows they're not half as smart as people make them out to be.

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#26

Post by taylodl »

pfannkuchen wrote: post #23
hakfoo wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't imagine that being a compelling sales pitch even to domestic investors. If Americans are trapped by tarrifs and have to buy whatever domestic-made rubbish is available, and you're not getting a high-quality workforce, why bother investing anything in new designs and manufacturing; hell, break out the old tooling and start cranking out Chrysler LeBarons again! It's like we're determined to emulate the rapid ec…

It’s not a compelling sales pitch to investors anywhere, I don’t think that’s the point. It’s a compelling sales pitch to workers in regions where economic prospects have dropped off a cliff in the past few decades. If you have no personal ties to those areas it may be hard to relate. I don’t see why this would equate to low quality. Domestic companies are free to compete. Many countries have historically boot strapp…

That's great except the US economy has been fueled by debt for the past 50 years - and a lot of that money fueling the debt comes from overseas. You drop your compelling sales pitch to investors and their money leaves. I don't think you understand the ramifications of that. We're not talking about boot strapping industries - our industries are mature. They will lose access to world markets if the US decides to double-down on isolationism. That means negative growth for the largest industries in the US.

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#27

Post by taylodl »

temporarely wrote: post #12
taylodl wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GOP can't force interest rate cuts unless they eliminate the Federal Reserve, and if they do that we're straight back to the boom/bust cycles of the late 19th century - which doesn't help the economy. Since we know tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires does not lead to economic growth and only serves to increase federal deficits, the policies the GOP favors lead to interest rates increases. Like I said, we j…

We have definitely experienced "boom bust cycles" since the creation of the Federal Reserve. The very first such bust was called the Great Depression.

We have not. Look at the economic history of the latter half of the 19th century in the US. We haven't experienced those levels and frequency of market swings since the creation of the Federal Reserve. Also, the Great Depression was a world-wide event. That was our first clue that isolationist policy was misguided.

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#28

Post by p51-remorse »

taylodl wrote: post #24
p51-remorse wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how does that help you when the EU will just block you and fine you? Well, which candidate is more likely to push back on those rules? The US has plenty of ways to put pressure on foreign law; the current admin just hasn’t been doing it.

And how did Trump's ham-fisted approach to China work out for us? Lost an export market for American farmers, put supply chains in havoc - and this was before the pandemic. Chaos is not good for business.

Pretty… great? I remember 2019 fondly. Granted, I’m not a farmer, but I don’t recall people complaining much about grocery prices.

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#29

Post by hakfoo »

pfannkuchen wrote: post #23
hakfoo wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't imagine that being a compelling sales pitch even to domestic investors. If Americans are trapped by tarrifs and have to buy whatever domestic-made rubbish is available, and you're not getting a high-quality workforce, why bother investing anything in new designs and manufacturing; hell, break out the old tooling and start cranking out Chrysler LeBarons again! It's like we're determined to emulate the rapid ec…

It’s not a compelling sales pitch to investors anywhere, I don’t think that’s the point. It’s a compelling sales pitch to workers in regions where economic prospects have dropped off a cliff in the past few decades. If you have no personal ties to those areas it may be hard to relate. I don’t see why this would equate to low quality. Domestic companies are free to compete. Many countries have historically boot strapp…

The part of "bootstrap through tarrifs" that's missing here is the "bootstrap" phase.

You can get away with selling domestic rubbish to local consumers when you're a poor country with few options. For an established industrial power:

1. Consumers will not change their behaviour unless you apply punitive levels of tarrifs. A 10% tax probably won't make the customers who have bought a Lexus for their last five cars switch to Lincoln. That's probably why Washington felt they could get away with the huge levies on Chinese EVs (a new market with no established consumer behaviour being disrupted), but didn't breathe a word about Made-in-China Buicks (an established market full of old people who vote).

2. It doesn't grow the total pie very much. When you're Outer Slobavia and just getting your first industrial plants off the ground, there's a lot of growth to be had just reclaiming the domestic market from foreign competitors. But the US is a mature player in most of these markets already. Removing foreign competitors will only buy a few percent market share.

Admittedly, tarriffs don't cause low quality by themselves. It's more that the package deal being presented is "we won't bother making American industry more competitive, since we can just go insular and high-tarriff to create a captive market to keep American factories alive." Even if you win at that captive market, that's a far smaller upside than if they had instead said "we're going to get back on the leading edge of manufacturing and make American products globally aspirational."

Re: Has Silicon Valley Gone Maga?

#30

Post by pfannkuchen »

hakfoo wrote: post #29
pfannkuchen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not a compelling sales pitch to investors anywhere, I don’t think that’s the point. It’s a compelling sales pitch to workers in regions where economic prospects have dropped off a cliff in the past few decades. If you have no personal ties to those areas it may be hard to relate. I don’t see why this would equate to low quality. Domestic companies are free to compete. Many countries have historically boot strapp…

The part of "bootstrap through tarrifs" that's missing here is the "bootstrap" phase. You can get away with selling domestic rubbish to local consumers when you're a poor country with few options. For an established industrial power: 1. Consumers will not change their behaviour unless you apply punitive levels of tarrifs. A 10% tax probably won't make the customers who have bought a Lexus for their last five cars swi…

Perhaps the most significant problem with maintaining free trade with places outside of Europe is that the lax environmental and labor regulations in those places make it extremely hard to compete.

If one factory has to operate clean and one doesn’t, who is going to make the cheaper product? If one factory has access to borderline slave labor and one doesn’t, who is etc.

Putting aside competition and focusing on morality, I don’t really understand how people put their head in the sand about the environmental and human damage they support abroad that they would never tolerate at home. The air we breathe is the same air that factories anywhere in the world pollute into, and people in Asia are just as human as we are.

I think a good approach would be to apply tariffs that offset the cost of environmental and labor regulations in America, which would be removed if the foreign countries adopt equivalent regulations and prove that they are in compliances. The state of affairs we have had for many decades now is insanity.

Post reply on HN