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ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

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Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#21

Post by Edd1CC »

chmod775 wrote: post #3
jmyeet wrote: post #2

If I were a G7 leader, the state of global semiconductor production would make me very nervous. ASML is a Dutch company and is essentially a monopoly now that they first commercialized EUV lithography. They can essentially decide what companies live and die. TSMC is probably ASML's largest customer because it reportedly produces over half of the world's chips. It is a Taiwanese company (and Taiwan accounts for two-th…

Both TSMC and ASML are just the tip of an iceberg. Each has thousands of supplier companies spread across many countries. Many of these supplier companies are peerless themselves in their respective areas. It's a lot less concentrated on those two countries than it seems, but at the same time things are even more fragile than your post would imply.

Yep, when you get down to the raw materials used for these devices you get to three/four companies the supply chain relies on

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#22

Post by throwaway4good »

Edd1CC wrote: post #20
throwaway4good wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are none in the sense that all high volume production of high-end chips uses ASML. With the possible exception of what Huawei is doing.

I’ve been buying shares in ASML and below, such as TSCM and Applied Materials, but it’s a brittle plan if anything revolutionary pops up!

ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China for the foreseeable future.

However because the Chinese electronics industry is so big and they rely so much on imports, when they are building alternatives to the US-controlled semiconductor supply chain (ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC etc.), it will matter at one point for ASML even if the Chinese tools and final products are never exported.

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#23

Post by lencastre »

Edd1CC wrote: post #16
gravescale wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's nuts to me is the time scale on the bottom. That is not a lot of time for something so complex. Then again, if they do an Intel 10nm+++++ and fail to maintain velocity even for a couple of years, their competition will close that gap very quickly.

Who are their real competitors? They’ve been buying parts of the supply chain recently - they seem to have a real moat unless regulation gets involved (Serious question: I am just getting into the semiconductor world and haven’t found any competitors yet)

Nikon

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#24

Post by autorizo »

Edd1CC wrote: post #21
chmod775 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both TSMC and ASML are just the tip of an iceberg. Each has thousands of supplier companies spread across many countries. Many of these supplier companies are peerless themselves in their respective areas. It's a lot less concentrated on those two countries than it seems, but at the same time things are even more fragile than your post would imply.

Yep, when you get down to the raw materials used for these devices you get to three/four companies the supply chain relies on

What are the materials/companies?

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#25

Post by phkahler »

throwaway4good wrote: post #22
Edd1CC wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been buying shares in ASML and below, such as TSCM and Applied Materials, but it’s a brittle plan if anything revolutionary pops up!

ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China for the foreseeable future. However because the Chinese electronics industry is so big and they rely so much on imports, when they are building alternatives to the US-controlled semiconductor supply chain (ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC etc.), it will matter at one point for ASML even if the Chinese tools an…

>> ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China.

Suppose China develops a cheaper way to produce the EUV light and sells the tools for half what ASML does. They might sell to others just to become the leader.

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#26

Post by throwaway4good »

phkahler wrote: post #25
throwaway4good wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China for the foreseeable future. However because the Chinese electronics industry is so big and they rely so much on imports, when they are building alternatives to the US-controlled semiconductor supply chain (ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC etc.), it will matter at one point for ASML even if the Chinese tools an…

>> ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China. Suppose China develops a cheaper way to produce the EUV light and sells the tools for half what ASML does. They might sell to others just to become the leader.

Yeah. It will be interesting the day that Intel starts buying SSMB EUVL from Huawei. :-D

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#27

Post by cpldcpu »

lencastre wrote: post #23
Edd1CC wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who are their real competitors? They’ve been buying parts of the supply chain recently - they seem to have a real moat unless regulation gets involved (Serious question: I am just getting into the semiconductor world and haven’t found any competitors yet)

Nikon

that was 20 years ago

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#28

Post by mschuster91 »

phkahler wrote: post #25
throwaway4good wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China for the foreseeable future. However because the Chinese electronics industry is so big and they rely so much on imports, when they are building alternatives to the US-controlled semiconductor supply chain (ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC etc.), it will matter at one point for ASML even if the Chinese tools an…

>> ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China. Suppose China develops a cheaper way to produce the EUV light and sells the tools for half what ASML does. They might sell to others just to become the leader.

They might want to sell... but who might (want to) buy, outside of Russia and maybe India? The Western world is already decoupling from China and I think it's completely infeasible that anyone wants to create new ties to China.

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#29

Post by seanmcdirmid »

phkahler wrote: post #25
throwaway4good wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China for the foreseeable future. However because the Chinese electronics industry is so big and they rely so much on imports, when they are building alternatives to the US-controlled semiconductor supply chain (ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC etc.), it will matter at one point for ASML even if the Chinese tools an…

>> ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China. Suppose China develops a cheaper way to produce the EUV light and sells the tools for half what ASML does. They might sell to others just to become the leader.

Or they might want to keep it under lock and key for a competitive and national security advantage.

Re: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits

#30

Post by johnny22 »

7thpower wrote: post #6
smallnamespace wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These observations while good are probably old news (about a decade old) by now. The US has viewed tech as strategic and a realm of competition with China since at least the late Obama admin (so 2015 or so). Semicon as a key strategic goal for China is regularly mentioned in their 5 year plans in an extremely public way. The US has leaned heavily on ASML to go along with export restrictions against China, along with…

You are making the situation sound much less precarious than it is. The reality is that the US has only really done something in the last few years, and those changes and attempts to hedge will take a very long time to materialize. Odds are the US and Europe will never enjoy the comparative advantage Taiwan has in the semiconductor supply chain. What does that mean? One of the west’s key strategic advantages is the a…

> Why is this situation with Taiwan so difficult to unwind? In the West there is a fantasy that if war breaks out, we will just load all the Taiwanese onto a starship and bring them over to the US where they will happily resume their work in OUR fabs. But they don’t want that. They want their home and ideals to be defended, and they’re willing to do the work… from their soil.

Who is saying or even implying this? I've never heard this anywhere. Otherwise there wouldn't be all these folks gaming out war scenarios because the US would never need to get involved.

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