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Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

princeton.edu

21–30 of 188 posts

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#21
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternate explanation: People know they can't do anything about true luck, so they want to focus on things they might be able to do something about.

But then do people overestimate the impact of their own influence? Would it benefit themselves/the world to come to grips with randomness?

Now you're just getting into life philosophies. Fatalism vs. free will is not an argument I am equipped to engage.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#22
I had this discussion with my father today and he finally conceded to me that I am partially right (he hates being wrong). The fact that you were not born in a war torn country, the fact that you had good role models, the fact that you weren't born with a mental or physical handicap, the fact that you met your long term business partner at some random get together. Are all luck. Now that doesn't mean you should give up on all of your activities, because if you don't try at all you have a zero percent chance of success at that point. Even getting to the point where you have this work hard mindset is luck.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#23
post #4

My success and failures in life have had nothing to do with luck. I've been both lucky and unlucky at various times, but none of them have determined my level of success over the short or long term to any significant degree. At the same time I've had periods where I worked hard and was focused and passionate about what I was doing, and periods where I was not passionate, unmotivated by a crushingly poorly run organiz…

Did Lewis work at Goldman? Have you read Liar's Poker? How are you qualified to comment on his career?

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#24
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternate explanation: People know they can't do anything about true luck, so they want to focus on things they might be able to do something about.

But then do people overestimate the impact of their own influence? Would it benefit themselves/the world to come to grips with randomness?

I figure it this way, I may or may not randomly succumb to a car accident, but if the next day I lost my hand I wouldn't give up on programming, I'd learn how to type faster with one hand. I bet the other one gets in the way anyways.

My point isn't that random isn't a big deal, or that people don't ever overestimate themselves, but that people shouldn't look at it like that anyways, it keeps you in control of your own life.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#25
post #9

I've enjoyed two great books that discuss this: "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" ( http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/books/review/Johnson-G-t.h... ) and "Fooled by Randomness" ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness ) I think people dislike talking about luck's role in our successes (but not failures) because it hints at a deterministic world view where our free will is less important…

Alternate explanation: People know they can't do anything about true luck, so they want to focus on things they might be able to do something about.

Maybe, but I'm talking about retrospection here, not prospection. People, even when talking about past successes, are very unlikely to admit their good fortune.

In other words you're more likely to hear, "I worked very hard" than "I worked very hard and was very lucky."

There are notable exceptions. Warren Buffet has openly talked about the role of luck in his success.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#26
post #4

My success and failures in life have had nothing to do with luck. I've been both lucky and unlucky at various times, but none of them have determined my level of success over the short or long term to any significant degree. At the same time I've had periods where I worked hard and was focused and passionate about what I was doing, and periods where I was not passionate, unmotivated by a crushingly poorly run organiz…

Just because something takes focus, passion, and effort doesn't mean there's not luck involved. Basically every major success story comes out of the intersection of those qualities; either one, on its own, typically just gives moderate "success" (e.g. comfortable middle class life), which is really not worth discussing in this context since it's more just the norm in life (at least in the modern western world).

It's really even deeper than that, though. Even having the chance to apply yourself involves a lot of luck. Many people simply don't have the mental capacity to go to Princeton, through nothing they ever did except being born to parents with certain genetics. Many others are born with outstanding abilities that no one ever knows about because they had the misfortune to be born in sub-Saharan Africa.

By all means, be proud of the work you put in to your success. But acting like the rest of the world had nothing to do with it won't make you many friends.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#27
post #4

My success and failures in life have had nothing to do with luck. I've been both lucky and unlucky at various times, but none of them have determined my level of success over the short or long term to any significant degree. At the same time I've had periods where I worked hard and was focused and passionate about what I was doing, and periods where I was not passionate, unmotivated by a crushingly poorly run organiz…

I'm always fascinated by downvoting on HN. I'm guessing you expressed what you felt "my success and failure in life had nothing to do with luck" and people are saying by downvoting that you are wrong!!! Why? You didn't say "people's success or failure" you said "my success or failure". In this case the downvoters are being parental and telling you to grow up and have a better understanding of the way the world works.

Or maybe it was this which they saw as factually incorrect: "Luck may have put Michael Lewis at Goldman Sachs, but luck didn't determine his level of success." but didn't want to take the time to correct you so others not as informed could learn.

Anyway, you said this: "I certainly find myself occasionally jealous of people who seemingly lucked into great success."

People normally refer to jealousy in a negative way. Personally I think it's a powerful motivator.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#28
post #4

My success and failures in life have had nothing to do with luck. I've been both lucky and unlucky at various times, but none of them have determined my level of success over the short or long term to any significant degree. At the same time I've had periods where I worked hard and was focused and passionate about what I was doing, and periods where I was not passionate, unmotivated by a crushingly poorly run organiz…

Lewis didn't work at Goldman...

Oh?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2009-07-27/bashing-goldman-sac...

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#29
post #26
post #4

My success and failures in life have had nothing to do with luck. I've been both lucky and unlucky at various times, but none of them have determined my level of success over the short or long term to any significant degree. At the same time I've had periods where I worked hard and was focused and passionate about what I was doing, and periods where I was not passionate, unmotivated by a crushingly poorly run organiz…

Just because something takes focus, passion, and effort doesn't mean there's not luck involved. Basically every major success story comes out of the intersection of those qualities; either one, on its own, typically just gives moderate "success" (e.g. comfortable middle class life), which is really not worth discussing in this context since it's more just the norm in life (at least in the modern western world). It's…

Basically every major success story comes out of the intersection of those qualities;

I just wanted to let you know, I'm going to quote that, poorly though since it's out of context as it is.

"Every major success story comes out of the intersection of luck and ability." - dan-k

Has a nice ring to it.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#30
The point I take away is a little bit beyond just realizing that you're lucky. That's important, and the people I've met that I consider truly successful (ones I would consider as role models), generally realize this.

However, I think we can take this further...the only variable that we have under our control is effort. Since luck is an outside force, you might as well maximize this one variable that's still under your control so that you have the best odds.

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