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The President of Iran has died

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Re: The President of Iran has died

#21

Post by ggm »

While it might be nice to speculate about a change in posture from the government of Iran, thats very unlikely to flow from this accident: the depth of staff inside the support groups behind the current government is too deep for a rapprochement to emerge, simply because the name on the door changes. There will be plenty of "obvious candidates" without reaching outside the tent for somebody e.g. who is less harsh about scarf culture, or the green movement.

They have the option. It's always possible they will seek to take it. I think given the extent to which trade with Russia and China is working for them, and the current conflict in the Gaza strip, it's the least likely choice.

Newspapers say the vice has 50 days before an elective process. Could be election amongst the elect or national election, I am unsure.

Re: The President of Iran has died

#22

Post by iancmceachern »

rockemsockem wrote: post #18
mlinhares wrote: post #6

Is there an index of the risk of private flights somewhere? It definitely feels like most accidents are on private flights when there are many more commercial flights.

I feel like the more useful thing here is helicopter risk. Helicopters are very unsafe in general as I understand things.

I have a buddy that grew up in Hawaii and he would never get on one.

Looking it up briefly it looks like there are 1-2 crashes per year just in Hawaii, that seems like too many for me

https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/hawaii-sightseeing-tou...

Re: The President of Iran has died

#23

Post by neves »

mlinhares wrote: post #6

Is there an index of the risk of private flights somewhere? It definitely feels like most accidents are on private flights when there are many more commercial flights.

I feel like they aren't very safe if you are considered an usa enemy

Re: The President of Iran has died

#24

Post by xtracto »

ggm wrote: post #21

While it might be nice to speculate about a change in posture from the government of Iran, thats very unlikely to flow from this accident: the depth of staff inside the support groups behind the current government is too deep for a rapprochement to emerge, simply because the name on the door changes. There will be plenty of "obvious candidates" without reaching outside the tent for somebody e.g. who is less harsh abo…

Uuuh last I read the "president" of Iran is just a public figure. The real power lies in the Supreme Leader Ayatollah. So likely he will place another puppet as president and that'll be it.

Re: The President of Iran has died

#25

Post by ggm »

xtracto wrote: post #24
ggm wrote: post #21

While it might be nice to speculate about a change in posture from the government of Iran, thats very unlikely to flow from this accident: the depth of staff inside the support groups behind the current government is too deep for a rapprochement to emerge, simply because the name on the door changes. There will be plenty of "obvious candidates" without reaching outside the tent for somebody e.g. who is less harsh abo…

Uuuh last I read the "president" of Iran is just a public figure. The real power lies in the Supreme Leader Ayatollah. So likely he will place another puppet as president and that'll be it.

Yes, it's understood this is not the primary position of power, but it's part of the circle of governance which includes roles as "stepping stones" and it's very likely this incumbent was being groomed for the next logical position up the chain. He has a vice, who is empowered (however meaninglessly) to step into the role in the interim.

I think you're saying the same thing as me more succinctly. It's unlikely to be a moment of change.

Re: The President of Iran has died

#26

Post by yawpitch »

rockemsockem wrote: post #18
mlinhares wrote: post #6

Is there an index of the risk of private flights somewhere? It definitely feels like most accidents are on private flights when there are many more commercial flights.

I feel like the more useful thing here is helicopter risk. Helicopters are very unsafe in general as I understand things.

Well, that’s certainly one way of saying you don’t understand things.

Helicopters are, arguably, safer than fixed wing aircraft, simply because they can autorotate down to a soft landing from a complete engine failure and with loss of forward velocity. They’re also by nature VTOL, so you can more or less put them down on any flat surface big enough, while a fixed wing always requires a long enough path to lose energy on.

The only reason helicopters appear at all riskier is the roles to which they’re put, and their ability to hover means they’re often put into situations that are much more likely to risk rotor blade strike and loss than any fixed wing aircraft is likely to risk an impact on its prop or fan blades.

Re: The President of Iran has died

#27

Post by basch »

xtracto wrote: post #24
ggm wrote: post #21

While it might be nice to speculate about a change in posture from the government of Iran, thats very unlikely to flow from this accident: the depth of staff inside the support groups behind the current government is too deep for a rapprochement to emerge, simply because the name on the door changes. There will be plenty of "obvious candidates" without reaching outside the tent for somebody e.g. who is less harsh abo…

Uuuh last I read the "president" of Iran is just a public figure. The real power lies in the Supreme Leader Ayatollah. So likely he will place another puppet as president and that'll be it.

Supreme Leader is like Charmain of the Board.

President is like COO/CFO.

Re: The President of Iran has died

#28

Post by dzhiurgis »

rockemsockem wrote: post #18
mlinhares wrote: post #6

Is there an index of the risk of private flights somewhere? It definitely feels like most accidents are on private flights when there are many more commercial flights.

I feel like the more useful thing here is helicopter risk. Helicopters are very unsafe in general as I understand things.

For certain geographies they are necessary (esp if you wanna flex). Equal trips in car+plane would take forever.
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