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The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

pivotal.substack.com

21–30 of 88 posts

Re: The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

#21

Clickbait, deceptive title. What the author means is ‘get real about continuous learning’ Of course it takes money to run experiments you can actually learn from, and the article is bereft of practical advice about doing this on the cheap. However, I clicked. But you don’t have to.

I did not see any practical advice in the post. Did I miss something?

Re: The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

#23
> Making it worse is that we’re all heavily socialized to aim for mediocre success. Schools, universities, large organizations — they don’t want big swings and big misses; they want safety and consistency. A steady 7 is better than 10s interspersed with 0s. This might work well in structured, predictable environments, but in startup-land it’s anathema.

Correction: It's anathema for VC-funded startups whose backers need one or two to succeed to unicorn size to recoup their losses from the other 98 attempts. For self-funded or privately/bank financed startups, it's fine to stay low profile and grow slowly, as long as the investors get their money back and everyone gets paid fairly. You may not end up a billionaire, but hell, even a small trades shop can reasonably be worth a million dollars or two after a few decades.

It's after all how the many, many "hidden champions" of Germany's Mittelstand got to where they are: start small, focus on extremely high quality products/services, and dominate entire markets even though no one but experts of their respective fields have even heard of them. And that model working out isn't restricted to Germany either... Japanese YKK zippers are the best example there [1].

A side note: if you don't have VCs or, worse, the vipers of the public stock market breathing down your neck, you have so much more freedom as a founder. You can do what's best for the company long term.

[1] https://slate.com/business/2012/04/ykk-zippers-why-so-many-d...

Re: The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

#24

I worked in a SaaS company selling an A/B Testing app where I saw a lot of tests and their outcomes from different clients. Of course there are the low hanging fruits, which scored the clear success. Most of the tests although were not a clear success, but just a slightly better conversion rate. Multiple tests applied after each other slowly increased the overall value. If taken the advice not to implement the change…

Indeed. It's almost like the original article is clickbait :) The problem is that we have a term for what he's describing already - diminishing returns. For some of these "mediocre successes" you may find that your business is already down the optimization curve on some choices, but, having done a test and found a signal to improve, why not?

After all, pretty much all of writing, music, product design, prototyping, etc. is iterative. It's a purely investor mindset that would have you think that small optimizations do not pay back. Having that mindset in creating something is a great way to give up after one draft of a good idea.

Re: The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

#26
Having a corporate job is usually a 'mediocre success'. If you strike out on your own with something that involves your passion and you earn a comparable income, you are a stellar success. Don't let a nepo baby tell you otherwise.

Re: The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

#27

Clickbait, deceptive title. What the author means is ‘get real about continuous learning’ Of course it takes money to run experiments you can actually learn from, and the article is bereft of practical advice about doing this on the cheap. However, I clicked. But you don’t have to.

That's a pretty low bar to call something click bait. It's not click bait just because you disagree with the content. Edit: and I think the title matched the content fairly ok?

Re: The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

#28

Clickbait, deceptive title. What the author means is ‘get real about continuous learning’ Of course it takes money to run experiments you can actually learn from, and the article is bereft of practical advice about doing this on the cheap. However, I clicked. But you don’t have to.

As someone who went through the startup grind, I think the entire message is in the title and its spot on.

Did you read the article? Running experiments means you need to have a null hypothesis - and in a sales conversion experiment, for example, the null should be calibrated to ensure your conversions are scalable wins and not just one-offs.

Re: The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

#29
What a useless article. Zero insight. Anyone who has run a study knows this. It’s one of the reasons statistics is useful. And also decision making. Before hiring a team of cold callers the person should have had a clear target. Without that kind of leadership of course its confusing.

Re: The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)

#30

Having a corporate job is usually a 'mediocre success'. If you strike out on your own with something that involves your passion and you earn a comparable income, you are a stellar success. Don't let a nepo baby tell you otherwise.

I agree, but this blogpost is NOT about professional trajectory. It's about sales and GTM success criteria for startups

> That’s the danger of the mediocre success. The point of startup experimentation isn't the success itself; it’s the learning that comes with clear-cut success or failure. You don't really care about the sales revenue generated by your first two reps; you care about whether this is a strategy you can scale to dozens and then hundreds of reps, or whether you need to use a completely different strategy. It’s all about the learning. And mediocre successes don’t give you any learning.

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