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SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

swpc.noaa.gov

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Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#21

Post by skywal_l »

sukhavati wrote: post #15
atonse wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

I was trying to find stuff around Oct 2003 when the last event of this magnitude took place, but I wasn't able to find anything comparable. From what I can tell the forecast is more mild on the 12th UTC, so I wouldn't worry that much about that. I was worried in my case because my flight leaves pretty much at the apex of the geomagnetic storm. I think we can expect delays, GPS being unresponsive, radio issues, and so…

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 there's already been a G4 in march and it didn't seem to have caused any issues (AFAIK).

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#22

Post by sukhavati »

skywal_l wrote: post #21
sukhavati wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was trying to find stuff around Oct 2003 when the last event of this magnitude took place, but I wasn't able to find anything comparable. From what I can tell the forecast is more mild on the 12th UTC, so I wouldn't worry that much about that. I was worried in my case because my flight leaves pretty much at the apex of the geomagnetic storm. I think we can expect delays, GPS being unresponsive, radio issues, and so…

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 there's already been a G4 in march and it didn't seem to have caused any issues (AFAIK).

The March G4 was unexpected. I wouldn't be surprised if this one turns out to be much stronger than is modeled today as well.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#23

Post by op00to »

afruitpie wrote: post #20
op00to wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you worried? Not saying you're wrong to be worried, but I'm interested to know what the actual concern is.

My concern comes from my own naïveté. I don’t know enough about flying to know how concerned I should be. Hearing there’s a storm that affects navigation is an eyebrow-raiser, especially when sitting at an airport gate like I am.

Totally makes sense - if we don't understand what's going on, our minds immediately go to a worst case scenario. I hope you have a safe and enjoyable flight - at this point you're putting your trust in the hands of air travel regulators, and they have a pretty solid track record of safety.

There can be interruptions to radio communications and GPS, but there's multiple ways that airplanes track where they were and where they're headed. In addition to GPS, airliners have Inertial Reference Units which the aircraft can use to figure out where they are.

The big impact to humans from storms like these are the miles-long antennas (also known as power lines) that can pick up a charge from the energized particles streaming from the sun and cause damage to transformers and other equipment.

So, your flight will be fine, but worst case scenario maybe you will land at a place that won't have power.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#25

Post by mikewarot »

atonse wrote: post #11
sukhavati wrote: post #4

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof.…

I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

>Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

An airplane is a big closed conductive tube, not connected to the ground. There's nothing to worry about. I'd happily fly on those days.

As for why we worry about the storms on the ground - the main effects of Geomagnetic storms on the ground involve DC currents generated in power grids that span hundreds of miles, at the ends of those transmission lines, are transformers engineered to most efficiently use the transformer steel by almost pushing it to saturation, at which it rapidly loses the ability to contain more lines of flux. This saturation can then allow almost unlimited amounts of current to flow, turning the transformer into a space heater, connected to gigawatts of power. Things can then very rapidly get out of hand, circuits fault, opening lines, causing power to be diverted elsewhere, until the entire grid goes down.

No such issues can happen in an airframe.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#27

Post by jwjohnson314 »

afruitpie wrote: post #20
op00to wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you worried? Not saying you're wrong to be worried, but I'm interested to know what the actual concern is.

My concern comes from my own naïveté. I don’t know enough about flying to know how concerned I should be. Hearing there’s a storm that affects navigation is an eyebrow-raiser, especially when sitting at an airport gate like I am.

In addition to the points others have made, flights that pass near the poles are often rerouted to lower latitudes.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#28

Post by sva_ »

sukhavati wrote: post #4

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof.…

This site is also pretty good:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

Looks promising so far.

Edit: damn those values are crazy. Gonna climb the mountain tonight. Fingers crossed for a clear sky

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#29

Post by atonse »

mikewarot wrote: post #25
atonse wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

>Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"? An airplane is a big closed conductive tube, not connected to the ground. There's nothing to worry about. I'd happily fly on those days. As for why we worry about the storms on the ground - the main effects of Geomagnetic storms on the ground involve DC currents…

Thanks for this explanation, this is exactly why I love Hacker News :D

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#30

Post by briantakita »

sukhavati wrote: post #16
webdoodle wrote: post #13

Tony Philips with NASA runs Spaceweather.com. Yesterday he posted a pic, with an overlay from the 1859 Carrington Event sunspot. They are the same size. Let that sink in. https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...

the solar spot is comparable in size but the CME were significantly (100x) less energetic than is estimated for Carrington. With that said, the Earth's magnetic field has weakened by ~15% since the 1800s so there's that...

There are 6 X-class flares. Solar Flares can cannibalize each other. If the different flares travel at different velocities. Leading to a larger impact. Obviously, we were not able to measure how many solar flares came from the Carrington Event or if this cannibalization occurred.
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