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In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

reason.com

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Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#21

Post by bitwize »

Schiendelman wrote: post #19
awwaiid wrote: post #10

Isn't zero-precent unemployment the exact opposite of the star trek utopia we were promised?

Not really. In Star Trek, you have access to mental healthcare and the educational resources to go do something you want to do . Then that’s the work. I think it’s a little unbelievable that the right proportion of people want to, say, serve food at a restaurant. But that’s the idea.

When you have the technology to replicate virtually any foodstuff to perfection instantly, restaurants become less common, and may take on different meaning (as more social hangouts rather than food-service places). Accordingly, the ST universe just might have enough bored, centuries-old El-Aurians looking for conversation and company to fill all the needed service roles there are -- and such roles are more relaxed and stimulating besides.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#22

Post by bitwize »

BMc2020 wrote: post #4

How to read an HN subject line: WRONG: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment RIGHT: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment (reason.com) TL:DR; (reason.com)

Indeed. Is there a browser extension or something that replaces every reason.com article on Hackernews with a corresponding jacobin.com article? For this one, there's an acceptable substitute on the front page right now: https://jacobin.com/2024/01/can-humanity-survive-ai

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#23

Post by jauntywundrkind »

nextworddev wrote: post #14

This is a really poorly argued article, not sure even where to start dismantling the author's arguments. (Almost feels like ChatGPT wrote this article). But let's start with this "If H&R Block could replace 90 percent of its seasonal employees with AI, it would see its profits skyrocket, given that labor is its biggest expense. Those profits would be reallocated elsewhere, that would increase the potential for even m…

Does anyone have a single example of a well reasoned good Reason.com article? This seems to be a no worse than average example from them. There's some ridiculous slant serving some glaringly biased agenda, with terrible argumentation.

Sources like Reason getting submitted & discussed as though their normal submissions is usually an incredibly silly time. I don't think the site should do it, but on Bluesky there's moderation layers, and it seriously makes me want something like that for the web at large, where we can turn on some kind of content warning as we browse. Content warning: specious/suspect sight. Content warning: strong agenda.

It's a bad time that the noosphere keeps happening with so little memory. That there's not cues and contexts to be like, hey, this is Reason or Quilette: don't expect normal content here.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#24

Post by cyberlurker »

wkat4242 wrote: post #13
chii wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

really? i would love to live forever, because these changes have been beneficial, and those who lived two centuries go would've loved to trade places.

Those two centuries ago probably yes. Three decades ago probably not. The world is in a much darker place than the 90s. And our extreme consumption is partly to blame, as is internet manipulation of the masses.

Cancer treatment is way better now than even a few years ago. Miles ahead of the 90s.

The bee population in America is supposedly growing very quickly thanks in part to tax breaks in Texas.

Global poverty is way down. Large part of that is China.

Gay rights have come a long way. Not perfect, but it’s nice that generally people can be more open about who they are.

I absolutely love all the open source projects out there for almost anything I want.

Yeah, we could be doing better. Much better. But it’s actually unlikely we will hit the worst case scenarios for climate change. The developing world is going to get rocked by the 2+C temperature increase, but it won’t be an extinction event, there is still more we can do, and there is much less denialism than the 90s or 00s.

Am I touching too much grass?

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#25

Post by wkat4242 »

cyberlurker wrote: post #24
wkat4242 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those two centuries ago probably yes. Three decades ago probably not. The world is in a much darker place than the 90s. And our extreme consumption is partly to blame, as is internet manipulation of the masses.

Cancer treatment is way better now than even a few years ago. Miles ahead of the 90s. The bee population in America is supposedly growing very quickly thanks in part to tax breaks in Texas. Global poverty is way down. Large part of that is China. Gay rights have come a long way. Not perfect, but it’s nice that generally people can be more open about who they are. I absolutely love all the open source projects out the…

There's some positives yes but it feels like world in decline gearing up for war.

Russia and China are again extremely adversarial and autocratic, the US is tearing itself apart in political polarisation. In my own country the extreme right fascists won 24% of votes. Gay rights are ok but Trans people are being demonised by the right now. As a whole it feels like the LGBTQ+ community is under attack. Big corporations are getting ever more powerful.

The internet is decidedly less free and very enshittified and we get tracked and surveilled wherever we go, online or not.

And no it won't be an extinction event but it will be heavy for the marginal people everywhere, leading to even more differences between rich and poor and even more pressure to equalise this by war.

And in the 90s we had much better social welfare safety nets here. Three decades of neoliberal government hollowed out anything good here in Holland. The rage of the disadvantaged by this are what's fueling this swing to fascism, they take advantage of this anger and redirect it to worse.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#26

Post by lesuorac »

jazzdev wrote: post #2

TLDR: "The future is bigger than we can imagine. Change is equally hard to comprehend. Two centuries ago, 80 percent of the U.S. population worked on farms. If you told one of those farmers that in 2024 barely 1 percent of the population would work on farms, he'd have a difficult time imagining what the other 79 percent of the population would do with their time. If you then tried to explain what an average income co…

Sure, somebody that works constantly in a field might not spend that much time imagining what the majority of the country would do if they weren't working all the time.

But some other people that have much less demanding jobs did think that in the future people would barely work. This has become much more true for Europe than USA although as you'll see pointed out all the time, USA salaries are higher then Europe.

I suspect Keynes was a socialist since he seems to have this idea that everybody would chip in only 15 hours a week in order to produce enough stuff for the whole of society.

> "But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!" [1]

[1]: http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#27

Post by randomdata »

skhunted wrote: post #17
nextworddev wrote: post #14

This is a really poorly argued article, not sure even where to start dismantling the author's arguments. (Almost feels like ChatGPT wrote this article). But let's start with this "If H&R Block could replace 90 percent of its seasonal employees with AI, it would see its profits skyrocket, given that labor is its biggest expense. Those profits would be reallocated elsewhere, that would increase the potential for even m…

Exactly. Rich people tend to horde their wealth and seek more. When they have an opportunity to extract wealth from others they do so. The increase in economic growth from this extraction is minimal in comparison to the amount extracted.

The only way to “extract wealth from others” is to put them to work.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#28

Post by Schiendelman »

bitwize wrote: post #21
Schiendelman wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. In Star Trek, you have access to mental healthcare and the educational resources to go do something you want to do . Then that’s the work. I think it’s a little unbelievable that the right proportion of people want to, say, serve food at a restaurant. But that’s the idea.

When you have the technology to replicate virtually any foodstuff to perfection instantly, restaurants become less common, and may take on different meaning (as more social hangouts rather than food-service places). Accordingly, the ST universe just might have enough bored, centuries-old El-Aurians looking for conversation and company to fill all the needed service roles there are -- and such roles are more relaxed a…

I think you’re totally right. I am skeptical but hopeful. :)

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#29

Post by drewmcarthur »

randomdata wrote: post #27
skhunted wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Rich people tend to horde their wealth and seek more. When they have an opportunity to extract wealth from others they do so. The increase in economic growth from this extraction is minimal in comparison to the amount extracted.

The only way to “extract wealth from others” is to put them to work.

exactly, the only reason to hire someone is because you’re making money off their work.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#30

Post by kazinator »

Schiendelman wrote: post #19
awwaiid wrote: post #10

Isn't zero-precent unemployment the exact opposite of the star trek utopia we were promised?

Not really. In Star Trek, you have access to mental healthcare and the educational resources to go do something you want to do . Then that’s the work. I think it’s a little unbelievable that the right proportion of people want to, say, serve food at a restaurant. But that’s the idea.

Though Star Trek, countless Americans also had vicarious access to mental health care. After a good episode, the world seems to make more sense, and one's outlook is more optimistic.
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