Linux market share passes 4% for first time; macOS dominance declines

I think it has more to do with Linux becoming more viable on the desktop for the average user thanks to web apps and Electron. Developers can drive some trends, with them typically being the one in their group people go to for advice, but if developers alone haven’t tipped the needle by now, I don’t see that changing, especially when so much development these days isn’t being compiled.

Last time I setup a Linux box I was pleasantly surprised I could get a lot of the stuff I was used to, thanks to Electron. While I prefer native apps, having an official app that has feature parity to Windows and macOS will always win out, and I don’t think the average user even knows the difference.

The biggest weakness of Linux on the desktop going mainstream always seemed to be the lack of commercial software. That’s where OS X shined with developers. It was a Unix system that could also run Photoshop and Office, without hoping Wine worked, or relying on converting file types to maintain compatibility with the rest of the world… and hoping that worked.

The more native apps don’t matter, the better I see Linux doing.

I think his has also helped Windows. I remember several years ago trying Windows again for the first time in a long time. It felt mostly the same has 15 years prior. Looking around for app recommendations, and it was the same stuff from 15 years ago with the same UIs for the most part. No one was adopting the changes MS was trying to push. Electron comes along and now developers are putting their app everywhere, when for a while it seemed like it was mainly phone, macOS, and web. Windows and Linux users were seemingly expected to just use the web apps. While Electron may technical be the same under the hood, having something local for often used and mission critical apps is very nice.

Several variations on this theme recurring regularly:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38853877 63 days ago, 345 comments Linux hits nearly 4% desktop user share on Statcounter (gamingonlinux.com)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39252801 30 days ago, 79 comments Linux has reached 4% for the partial Feburary 2024 data on StatCounter (github.com/openstatslab)

Your post above from yesterday has 179 comments.

There are always so many questions I have when I see numbers like these. One that is always in the forefront is how are people getting Linux on their computers?

4% is pretty impressive if the vast majority of users are actually installing Linux themselves (USB ISO, UEFI/BIOS). It might indicate that we're (possibly) reaching the upper limits of power (tech-savvy) users.

If the vast majority are from computers with Linux already pre-installed, that would be more amazing to me. It tells me that the entire Linux ecosystem is becoming more robust and self-supporting.

Apart from Darling there is, of course, the venerable GNUstep development environment that allows porting MacOSX apps natively to Linux and related systems. See https://gnustep.github.io for details.