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Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

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21–30 of 82 posts

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#21
post #7

Sounds like they were relying solely on their neural network path prediction, which failed when the truck was dragged at an odd angle. A simple lidar moving object segmentation, which doesn't even know what it's looking at but can always spit out reasonable path predictions, would probably have saved them. I think Mobileye is doing something like this, but they release so little data, which is always full of marketin…

It's unlikely to be neutral network based. This sounds like a model prediction failure. You take a mathematical model of car motion: the rear wheels generally don't steer. The front steered wheels can cause the car to drive along an arc. If you want to predict the arc that will be driven, you take the initial starting heading of the vehicle and project forward in time based on your understanding of the vehicles steer…

Its NN black box alright, for a hand crafted model you would have something like:

    if prediction != reality
     {mismatch+= whatever the time tick is}

    if mismatch > second (or two)
     {abort driver assist}

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#22

I wish there was a picture of the strange towing configuration. I wonder if I would be confused as well, although my guess is that I’d read the situation correctly

I’ve been confused occasionally by road situations. Somehow I’ve never managed to drive into a multi-ton object.

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#23
post #7

Sounds like they were relying solely on their neural network path prediction, which failed when the truck was dragged at an odd angle. A simple lidar moving object segmentation, which doesn't even know what it's looking at but can always spit out reasonable path predictions, would probably have saved them. I think Mobileye is doing something like this, but they release so little data, which is always full of marketin…

It's unlikely to be neutral network based. This sounds like a model prediction failure. You take a mathematical model of car motion: the rear wheels generally don't steer. The front steered wheels can cause the car to drive along an arc. If you want to predict the arc that will be driven, you take the initial starting heading of the vehicle and project forward in time based on your understanding of the vehicles steer…

I'm thinking it might make sense to have a sort of hierarchy of models. The stupidest model predicts that everything will be stationary. The second model predicts that everything will travel in a straight line. The third model tries to predict a circular arc based on same fusion of path history and observed steering input. Fourth model uses a notion of action to predict whats going to happen, like "the car is changing lanes". Fifth model uses body language and common sense to predict intention "the pedestrian wants to cross".

Each model can potentially predict longer into the future but also has more complexity and things that can go wrong. So you keep track of how well each model is doing (on an object basis) and if one level is failing then you fall back on a stupider one. You might also want to increase caution if your models are not doing well (lower speed and increased safety distance).

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#24
post #7

Sounds like they were relying solely on their neural network path prediction, which failed when the truck was dragged at an odd angle. A simple lidar moving object segmentation, which doesn't even know what it's looking at but can always spit out reasonable path predictions, would probably have saved them. I think Mobileye is doing something like this, but they release so little data, which is always full of marketin…

It's unlikely to be neutral network based. This sounds like a model prediction failure. You take a mathematical model of car motion: the rear wheels generally don't steer. The front steered wheels can cause the car to drive along an arc. If you want to predict the arc that will be driven, you take the initial starting heading of the vehicle and project forward in time based on your understanding of the vehicles steer…

It is definitely based on neural networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpiN3LyMLB8

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, there's nothing akin to a software update that would cause the entire fleet of human drivers to start driving badly or unexpectedly all at once. We also know how to hold individuals accountable for independent accidents. We know we won't get justice when people will inevitably start to get killed by standard corporate greed, incompetence, enshittification.

> there's nothing akin to a software update that would cause the entire fleet of human drivers to start driving badly or unexpectedly all at once. All, no. Enough to make a difference, easy. Black Friday in February! In-Store offer only! $99 Playstation 5 to first 100 customers at each Walmart location! You can bet there will be a significant increase in people driving badly. edit: Make it Taylor Swift tickets, and y…

Not even a cheap console or taytay tickets needed. I once had a lady with 5 kids in the car go to ram me when I went around her to get into the car park while she was waiting in line for the KFC drive through. Nuts lol

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#26
post #4

This is my biggest fear with self-driving cars. Correlated failures. As a society we are extremely good at dealing with independent accidents. We can calculate very precisely how many people will die of traffic in a given year and we can account for it, we can have insurances, and we can decide exactly how much we are willing to spend to save a life on the margin. But if everything is fine, everything is fine, everyt…

Yeah, there's nothing akin to a software update that would cause the entire fleet of human drivers to start driving badly or unexpectedly all at once. We also know how to hold individuals accountable for independent accidents. We know we won't get justice when people will inevitably start to get killed by standard corporate greed, incompetence, enshittification.

I notice, when e.g. it rains enough for long enough, a lot if people get annoyed and start driving badly. You get some kind of contagion where everybody gets annoyed and tired because all other drivers are annoyed, tired assholes. Sometimes it even persists after the bad weather, especially if there was gridlock and/or end of workday. Humans do have a (lighter) version of collective bad driving.

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#27
post #4

This is my biggest fear with self-driving cars. Correlated failures. As a society we are extremely good at dealing with independent accidents. We can calculate very precisely how many people will die of traffic in a given year and we can account for it, we can have insurances, and we can decide exactly how much we are willing to spend to save a life on the margin. But if everything is fine, everything is fine, everyt…

My fear is similar, but more along the lines of adversarial attacks as various weaknesses are exposed. Imagine people taking advantage of zero-day exploits that cause self driving cars to veer off the road, stop suddenly, collide, etc. It is really not that far fetched. This technology is very far away from maturity, IMO.

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, there's nothing akin to a software update that would cause the entire fleet of human drivers to start driving badly or unexpectedly all at once. We also know how to hold individuals accountable for independent accidents. We know we won't get justice when people will inevitably start to get killed by standard corporate greed, incompetence, enshittification.

I notice, when e.g. it rains enough for long enough, a lot if people get annoyed and start driving badly. You get some kind of contagion where everybody gets annoyed and tired because all other drivers are annoyed, tired assholes. Sometimes it even persists after the bad weather, especially if there was gridlock and/or end of workday. Humans do have a (lighter) version of collective bad driving.

that's one reason crash traffic happens and stays for hours after the original reason for the traffic to happen in the first place is gone. I remember reading that one person applying their brakes too hard can have a knock on effect causing a traffic pattern to emerge for a long time after the initial braking ever occurred.

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#29
post #17
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you drive into a solid war if you have lidar though? To say nothing of predictions, the object is where it's at.... where it's at at that moment. You don't need to predict where it's at now... because you know where it's at.

It wasn’t a solid wall, it was another vehicle. The brakes don’t respond immediately - you need to be able to detect that a collision is imminent several seconds before it actually occurs. This means you have to also successfully exclude all the scenarios where you are very close to another car, but a collision is not imminent because the car will be out of the way by the time you get there. Yes, at some point before…

This is why autonomous vehicles need a hard cap on the speed limit they are driving at.

If the max speed is 35mph, that allows a good braking system to respond by safely stopping from LIDAR info 99% of the time.

Re: Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck

#30
post #17
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you drive into a solid war if you have lidar though? To say nothing of predictions, the object is where it's at.... where it's at at that moment. You don't need to predict where it's at now... because you know where it's at.

It wasn’t a solid wall, it was another vehicle. The brakes don’t respond immediately - you need to be able to detect that a collision is imminent several seconds before it actually occurs. This means you have to also successfully exclude all the scenarios where you are very close to another car, but a collision is not imminent because the car will be out of the way by the time you get there. Yes, at some point before…

My brakes respond immediatly,for all intents and purposes as a human with a reaction time. I'm at fault if the person in front of me stops and I dont have the stopping distance to avoid a collision.

I get that self driving software is difficult. But theres no excuse for this type of accident.

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