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Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

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Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#21
post #14
post #5

That's an interesting way to say "the West largely stopped breeding a while ago".

Not just 'the West'. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-21/chinas-population-is-... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/japan-populati...

Japan has embraced everything West starting 1868.

China outright banned having more than 1 kid and people aborted girls en masse. This one I grant an exemption.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#23
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People stop having kids when economic forces work against them. It doesn't matter how the forces were put there. At least it's not like it was in Adam Smith's time, when the downward pressure was a result of children failing to reach adulthood. Thanks to birth control and modern medicine, people can decline to have children when they know the conditions are not right.

All evidence suggests that people stop having kids when their society gets richer and better educated.

Children are massively more expensive, and less useful, in richer societies. I don't think anybody in Japan would be allowed to provide for their children the standards of care provided in a country with a growing population. As for the second point, if you are a farmer in a country with little physical mobility, your children are your retirement savings. If you live in America, your children are future employees of a company ten states away.

I read a statistic somewhere that it costs $2M to raise a child. Considering that it's considered a horrible imposition to ask your kids for money, or even to ask them to take care of you, it's easy to explain why urbanization, industrial development, and education, work against population growth.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#24
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People stop having kids when economic forces work against them. It doesn't matter how the forces were put there. At least it's not like it was in Adam Smith's time, when the downward pressure was a result of children failing to reach adulthood. Thanks to birth control and modern medicine, people can decline to have children when they know the conditions are not right.

People stop having kids when they choose something else. Yes, career for one. Thanks to birth control and modern values, Western people can bring themselves to extinction.

> Western people can bring themselves to extinction.

Sounds like pearl clutching with bated breath.

It's a long way to extinction with many chances to stabilise before zero.

The only options are not continuous growth or death.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#25
post #14
post #5

That's an interesting way to say "the West largely stopped breeding a while ago".

Not just 'the West'. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-21/chinas-population-is-... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/japan-populati...

Zeihan (geopolitics celebrity dude) talks about this pretty often. It goes hand in hand with urbanization. When you're on the farm and especially when child mortality is high...you have lots of kids as they're needed for work. In the big city, kids are just a costly burden, so people have a lot less. All the countries that jumped into urbanization are in this boat. China, South Korea, Germany, Italy, and Japan are all in a really bad spot. It's not that they just ran out of kids...it's that they ran out 30 years ago. It's in this decade that they start running out of working age adults and shit starts getting really screwy. There isn't a known macroeconomic model for when the population pyramid is inverted and there is no money at the top to invest in new tech (it's all being used for them to live off of) and not enough people at the bottom to work or drive consumption.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#26

Anecdata: I am 31 and have 3 young kids. They have 0 cousins and, on top of that, 0... second cousins? Cousins-once-removed? Whatever the one is for my cousin's kids. My kids are my grandma's only great-grandkids. And I have... 6 cousins. On top of that, at my last job, on my team of 15, I was the only one with kids, and only 1 of those 15 engineers were under the age of 30. At my current job, my team is 8, and again…

On my team of 15 only 3 don’t have kids, though there is a wide age range (24-55) the ones without kids are in their 30s but have indicated no interest. But only 2 have more than 2 kids (3). One has two of her own and now that they’re grown up she just adopted 2 high school age kids, which is very commendable, (and a huge undertaking) but I don’t really count it in terms of procreation.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#27

Betteridge’s Law says no, it is not reshaping the experience of childhood. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headline...

This is one area where it's wrong. Instead of having 10 or more cousins...it's now common for kids to have 0 or close to it. My kid doesn't know what a cousin is. Kinda bonkers.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#28

Anecdata: I am 31 and have 3 young kids. They have 0 cousins and, on top of that, 0... second cousins? Cousins-once-removed? Whatever the one is for my cousin's kids. My kids are my grandma's only great-grandkids. And I have... 6 cousins. On top of that, at my last job, on my team of 15, I was the only one with kids, and only 1 of those 15 engineers were under the age of 30. At my current job, my team is 8, and again…

> It baffles me.

Frankly, I never really got why people wanted children in the first place, so this turnabout is amusing. Perhaps you can ask some of these people that you are close with as to their reasoning.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#29
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All evidence suggests that people stop having kids when their society gets richer and better educated.

Children are massively more expensive, and less useful, in richer societies. I don't think anybody in Japan would be allowed to provide for their children the standards of care provided in a country with a growing population. As for the second point, if you are a farmer in a country with little physical mobility, your children are your retirement savings. If you live in America, your children are future employees of…

"Useful" is subjective. Somehow a billion-year-old imperative to continue your bloodline by all costs faded to nothing in many people. Go figure.

Re: Cousins are disappearing. Is this reshaping the experience of childhood?

#30
I wish the world weren't so bad that potential parents don't want to bring new lives into it... honestly, if I were a mother considering whether to have a child, I wouldn't want them to have to grow up in this terrible day and age. They'd end up more traumatized than I am. I wouldn't be able to live with myself.
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