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Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

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Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#21

Post by cornholio »

throwaway66023 wrote: post #17
uoaei wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rhetoric aroung gig work routinely repeats this "be your own boss" language, too.

My country has a list of criteria to distinguish self-employment from closeted employment (which is tax evasion where I live): - use your own tools (laptop, phone, vehicle) - set your own schedule (work hours/days) - get paid for tasks, not hourly - have the ability to decline jobs without losing the customer (within reason) To me it seems like gig work is in the clear. Why is it not?

"Gig work" when dependent on a single major market mediator, such as Uber, Door Dash etc. is clearly a form of masked employment, your criteria notwithstanding.

The fundamental feature of freelance work is that you get your own customers and you are not dependent on a market maker who cuts you in.

Some of the other criteria seem arbitrary. Of course companies want to pay their employees per task, only if a customer is present, they love zero cost employees that are available as a reserve workforce to pick up any sudden demand. A monthly base salary is a labour protection for the employee, forcing the employer to take the business risk and distribute revenues from the peak times to the slow times, ensuring a stable revenue for their workforce.

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#22

Post by throwaway66023 »

cornholio wrote: post #21
throwaway66023 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My country has a list of criteria to distinguish self-employment from closeted employment (which is tax evasion where I live): - use your own tools (laptop, phone, vehicle) - set your own schedule (work hours/days) - get paid for tasks, not hourly - have the ability to decline jobs without losing the customer (within reason) To me it seems like gig work is in the clear. Why is it not?

"Gig work" when dependent on a single major market mediator, such as Uber, Door Dash etc. is clearly a form of masked employment, your criteria notwithstanding. The fundamental feature of freelance work is that you get your own customers and you are not dependent on a market maker who cuts you in. Some of the other criteria seem arbitrary. Of course companies want to pay their employees per task, only if a customer i…

It's a choice of the freelancer to work for only one app. Drivers in my city usually use multiple - Uber, Bolt, a local taxi company app. I had many Bolt rides in an Uber branded car and vice versa, and many Uber/Bolt rides in a "normal taxi" car. I saw the drivers switch between the different apps, choosing which one offers them the best rides right in that moment.

Food delivery is the same - I saw drivers have multiple different branded bags in the car when they delivered food to me.

I really don't see how it's masked employment if this can be done without any issue.

> The fundamental feature of freelance work is that you get your own customers and you are not dependent on a market maker who cuts you in.

They got their own customers - the gig work platform is the customer. How do you even define "getting their own customers"? Do I have to take them out to nice dinners? Is an ad in newspaper sufficient? What about an online ad? And what about an ad on a job platform? I worked for a private jet Air Operator company - their entire business was done through Avinode platform, that's basically Uber but for private jets. Are they masked employees of Avinode too?

Would you say that developers working through Upwork or Toptal are not freelancers? I specifically asked my tax government office this question - they said it doesn't matter whether there is a marketplace, what matters are the criteria I listed above.

> that are available as a reserve workforce to pick up any sudden demand.

That doesn't sound like "set your own schedule".

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#23

Post by nradov »

gnicholas wrote: post #9
sema4hacker wrote: post #5

The article is mostly about franchisees getting ripped off, but I think an important theme is that any business focused on physical fitness often is the fad of the moment, and can be difficult to sustain itself for long because of the need to have customers paying memberships forever. Customers start out thinking they'll always go to the gym or dance studio or whatever, but most inevitably drop out. My advice: stay a…

I guess this is why it’s so hard to cancel gym memberships. I wonder how these places will be affected by ozempic/etc. On the one hand, people won’t have to exercise to lose weight at much as before. On the other hand, perhaps there will be a cultural change that emphasizes muscle mass/tone more than now. That is, being not-overweight will be the default, and the way people will stand out will be muscle tone, perfect…

Gold's Gym and CrossFit already exist to target consumers who want a more toned, muscular appearance. They have been around for a while and should be sustainable as long as they don't do something stupid like take on huge debts to fuel rapid expansion. Any new market entrants will have to come up with a unique angle to compete against those established players. Tonal also appears to be getting some traction in the home strength training market but it's not clear whether they can survive.

GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic can be very effective for rapid weight loss but I think (hope?) that consumers will eventually become disillusioned with them. There are significant side effects in many patients, the weight tends to come back when the drug is stopped, and much of the weight lost is lean muscle rather than adipose tissue. There is a growing body of evidence that having a large amount of skeletal muscle is crucial for maintaining metabolic health (glucose sink) and preventing disabling falls later in life (sarcopenia).

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#24

Post by gnicholas »

nradov wrote: post #23
gnicholas wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess this is why it’s so hard to cancel gym memberships. I wonder how these places will be affected by ozempic/etc. On the one hand, people won’t have to exercise to lose weight at much as before. On the other hand, perhaps there will be a cultural change that emphasizes muscle mass/tone more than now. That is, being not-overweight will be the default, and the way people will stand out will be muscle tone, perfect…

Gold's Gym and CrossFit already exist to target consumers who want a more toned, muscular appearance. They have been around for a while and should be sustainable as long as they don't do something stupid like take on huge debts to fuel rapid expansion. Any new market entrants will have to come up with a unique angle to compete against those established players. Tonal also appears to be getting some traction in the ho…

Yeah, I think Golds and CrossFit could benefit, at the expense of places like 24 Hour Fitness, which are more about losing weight (IMO).

I agree there appear to be non-trivial side effects to these drugs, and I certainly won't be first in line to try them out. But I expect that they will be refined substantially, and that elimination of side effects will be a key goal. For example, if the drug can be administered via pill instead of injection, it would be easier to do a lower, steadier dose, which presumably would mellow out some of the side effects. Pharma companies undoubtedly see the huge pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and will do whatever it takes to get there. The best drugs will likely always be more expensive than the earlier generations, which will be used by larger portions of the population.

But to the extent that tastemakers are the elite, I think we'll see a cultural change regarding desirable traits even if mere mortals like me aren't on the medications. The change will accelerate as the drugs become cheaper and more available to the masses.

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#25

Post by lotsofpulp »

cornholio wrote: post #21
throwaway66023 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My country has a list of criteria to distinguish self-employment from closeted employment (which is tax evasion where I live): - use your own tools (laptop, phone, vehicle) - set your own schedule (work hours/days) - get paid for tasks, not hourly - have the ability to decline jobs without losing the customer (within reason) To me it seems like gig work is in the clear. Why is it not?

"Gig work" when dependent on a single major market mediator, such as Uber, Door Dash etc. is clearly a form of masked employment, your criteria notwithstanding. The fundamental feature of freelance work is that you get your own customers and you are not dependent on a market maker who cuts you in. Some of the other criteria seem arbitrary. Of course companies want to pay their employees per task, only if a customer i…

> A monthly base salary is a labour protection for the employee, forcing the employer to take the business risk and distribute revenues from the peak times to the slow times, ensuring a stable revenue for their workforce.

This sounds like it should be the concern of the government, not a business. Such as a universal basic income.

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#26

Post by lotsofpulp »

hash872 wrote: post #4
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

As sure as the sun rises in the East, "Suburban Moms (and Dads) Get Suckered By Over-Promised Sales Projections" is the headline that will never go away (see LulaRoe, MonaVie, just about any other MLM scam, not to mention other over-hyped franchises like Quiznos). At the same time, though, the franchisees had plenty of greed of their own. The article states "They also say it promised them the ability to run businesse…

>If your only contribution to a business is giving it money, you are essentially always better sticking that money in the stock market.... the idea that you can beat the market with no special benefit that you bring to the table is a fantasy as old as capitalism I feel like EMH is increasingly becoming a strange & unfalsifiable quasi-religion for some people. I believe even the strongest forms of EMH cover publicly t…

> Are you saying that it's literally impossible for me to invest in a local gym, real estate development, plumbing company, landscaper etc. and not beat the US equity market's average return of 9% a year?

Yes, without taking additional risk. SP500 is risk free, everything else, you need to be pricing in additional risk OR you need to have an edge other than providing money (which you can do buy buying VOO). hn_throwaway_99’s second paragraph explains it well.

One common arbitrage opportunity is to be part of an immigrant diaspora. They won’t have access to credit, but will be willing to work 100 hours per week. You can take advantage of that and basically use the fact that you are getting under minimum wage labor that is very invested in the business to get better than public equity returns.

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#27

Post by cornholio »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #25
cornholio wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Gig work" when dependent on a single major market mediator, such as Uber, Door Dash etc. is clearly a form of masked employment, your criteria notwithstanding. The fundamental feature of freelance work is that you get your own customers and you are not dependent on a market maker who cuts you in. Some of the other criteria seem arbitrary. Of course companies want to pay their employees per task, only if a customer i…

> A monthly base salary is a labour protection for the employee, forcing the employer to take the business risk and distribute revenues from the peak times to the slow times, ensuring a stable revenue for their workforce. This sounds like it should be the concern of the government, not a business. Such as a universal basic income.

The government takes care of that need by regulating tha labour market and shifting the burden onto the private sector, which in turn passes it over to the consumers through prices. It's a functional system more than a century old that is politically feasible today, unlike most UBI proposals. So until we can have superior alternatives in place, companies aren't really free to "disrupt" that social model.

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#28

Post by lotsofpulp »

cornholio wrote: post #27
lotsofpulp wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A monthly base salary is a labour protection for the employee, forcing the employer to take the business risk and distribute revenues from the peak times to the slow times, ensuring a stable revenue for their workforce. This sounds like it should be the concern of the government, not a business. Such as a universal basic income.

The government takes care of that need by regulating tha labour market and shifting the burden onto the private sector, which in turn passes it over to the consumers through prices. It's a functional system more than a century old that is politically feasible today, unlike most UBI proposals. So until we can have superior alternatives in place, companies aren't really free to "disrupt" that social model.

The government is clearly not taking care of that by regulating the labor market, given the difficult it has in classifying “gig work”.

For example

> The fundamental feature of freelance work is that you get your own customers and you are not dependent on a market maker who cuts you in.

Are electrical/plumbing/painting/etc subcontractors hired by a general contractors freelancing?

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#29

Post by hash872 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #26
hash872 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If your only contribution to a business is giving it money, you are essentially always better sticking that money in the stock market.... the idea that you can beat the market with no special benefit that you bring to the table is a fantasy as old as capitalism I feel like EMH is increasingly becoming a strange & unfalsifiable quasi-religion for some people. I believe even the strongest forms of EMH cover publicly t…

> Are you saying that it's literally impossible for me to invest in a local gym, real estate development, plumbing company, landscaper etc. and not beat the US equity market's average return of 9% a year? Yes, without taking additional risk. SP500 is risk free, everything else, you need to be pricing in additional risk OR you need to have an edge other than providing money (which you can do buy buying VOO). hn_throwa…

>SP500 is risk free

I'm sorry, what?

Re: Club Pilates, Pure Barre owners say Xponential left them bankrupt

#30

Post by cornholio »

throwaway66023 wrote: post #22
cornholio wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Gig work" when dependent on a single major market mediator, such as Uber, Door Dash etc. is clearly a form of masked employment, your criteria notwithstanding. The fundamental feature of freelance work is that you get your own customers and you are not dependent on a market maker who cuts you in. Some of the other criteria seem arbitrary. Of course companies want to pay their employees per task, only if a customer i…

It's a choice of the freelancer to work for only one app. Drivers in my city usually use multiple - Uber, Bolt, a local taxi company app. I had many Bolt rides in an Uber branded car and vice versa, and many Uber/Bolt rides in a "normal taxi" car. I saw the drivers switch between the different apps, choosing which one offers them the best rides right in that moment. Food delivery is the same - I saw drivers have mult…

> you are not dependent on a market maker who cuts you in.

Is the software freelance market created and dominated by Upwork, which arbitrarily sets prices and defines the product? No, they are just one of the many marketplaces. Customers don't expect "an Upwork solution" because there is no such thing, they are fully aware a myriad small developers sell their services there. The small developers take on business risk and they are rewarded with market freedom.

Compare that with Uber, where customers are interacting with the company as a finite product, they "get an Uber". In many cities, there is no such thing as a "ride sharing market". Uber might compete with other transport solutions, but the individual drivers clealry do not have market freedom, they are a fungible workforce.

The notion that drivers have Uber as a customer is just silly. By that standard, any employee has their employer as a temporary important client, erasing any distinction and employee protection. The clients are clearly the riders who use the aps. Can Uber drivers compete with Uber and short circuit their fees by establishing direct to customer relationships? If it's generally no, then Uber is not a marketplace, it's an end product and the suppliers of the services are either employees or other subcontractors that have their own employment law obligations.

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