Justin is fundamentally missing what people are saying the bubble is. From my perspective, no one is arguing that high tech and programming
won't be more and more important in the future.
"Anyone who tells you that you shouldn’t be in tech, or that the current market situation will create an oversupply of people in tech, is doing you a massive disservice."
Who is saying this? I don't think anyone is trying to dissuade people from getting high tech skills.
I believe that the bubble consists of the massive amount of startups that do not actually provide a valuable service. Do we really need another social network or sharing site or "X for Y"? No, we don't, but it seems like 90% of the startups getting funded by incubators are just rehashes of that.
I believe that point is explained very well here: http://scripting.com/stories/2012/04/19/itsDefinitelyABubble...
The key points are here:
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2. We're bundling young people into things called startups, and selling them to investors for ever-increasing amounts of money.
3. In an effort to bring more suckers in, they just passed a law that makes it legal to pimp these startups to people who don't know anything. You will be able to take their investment by swiping a credit card. Probably using a $4 billion valuation Square dongle for an iPhone.
4. They have started incubators in every major city on the planet. Unfortunately it hasn't been stylish to learn how to program for a number of years, so there aren't that many programmers available to hire. And it takes years to get really good at this stuff.
5. Even if they could find enough programmers, there aren't that many businesses to start to satisfy the demand for investment vehicles. A lot like the situation with mortgages in the last bubble. So the VCs and angels and no doubt some very shady folks are putting together deals with people who can't program with no actual idea for the business. Don't look to Y-Combinator, they're the quality act here. But there are incubators in every city from Santiago to Beirut.
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The most important sentence there is "A lot like the situation with mortgages in the last bubble. So the VCs and angels and no doubt some very shady folks are putting together deals with people who can't program with no actual idea for the business."
And that is the bubble. Startups being founded with people who can't program with no actual idea for the business. Just like the last mortgage bubble.
And to be fair to Justin, I think twitch.tv is great. It is novel, has a clear path to monetization, and provides a service that people actually want. We need more venues for professional gaming and twitch.tv is a great step in that direction.