It's incredible how accurate the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard [0] is at predicting model performance compared to benchmarks (which can and are being gamed, see all the 7B models on HF leaderboard) [0]: https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboar...
It's like saying how can evaluating 5 years of performance at work be better at predicting someone's competency than their SAT scores.