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Rising Temperatures in the Netherlands

koenvangilst.nl

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Re: Rising Temperatures in the Netherlands

#21

Post by ArnoVW »

flerp wrote: post #3
vnglst wrote: post #2

Something I've been working on this weekend: visualising climate change in the Netherlands. https://koenvangilst.nl/blog/rising-temperatures I particularly liked the heatmap with monthly temperature data since the 1900s. It's a lot of scrolling, but you can clearly see that climate is accelerating since the '90s.

I wonder how Much of it is global warming vs other effects! Would be nice to see a even longer historical overlay of the changes. Or even have the values corrected for anomalies that are not an effect of human involvement.

Sure, there is some uncertainty. But in reality, we have a pretty complete model of physics, chemistry, geology and biology. Generally, the predictions we made 10 or 20 years ago match with what we're seeing.

So of course "science does not deal in certainties" but most of the questions are really at the second or third decimal point.

There is an excellent video by David Louapre (of Science Etonnante fame) that explains for example how our greenhouse model works. It's in French, but subtitles should do the tricks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewc8FBtEKPs

Re: Rising Temperatures in the Netherlands

#22

Post by WhatsTheBigIdea »

lucb1e wrote: post #12
flerp wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? Of course we should! It is of course partially caused by humanity. But it’s a common debate among researchers exactly how much the trends are affecting the changes.

It's a legitimate question, but I can't tell if you're wondering whether we have significant influence on it at all, or if you are just wondering what fraction the solar cycle being at its maximum ~now (iirc) and other such effects are (which I imagine is no more than a few percent, since previous ones are not immediately apparent in the visualization of the previous 10k-odd years ( https://xkcd.com/1732/); or even i…

The Solar Cycle is approximately has a period of ~11 years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle). The heating clearly shown in these visualizations does not appear to be related to the solar cycle.

Re: Rising Temperatures in the Netherlands

#23

Post by j4yav »

I've been here for about ten years - even in that short period of time it already feels like a different climate, especially in winter. They are totally mild now, more like the spring or fall than the winter of even a few years ago.

Re: Rising Temperatures in the Netherlands

#24

Post by lucb1e »

WhatsTheBigIdea wrote: post #22
lucb1e wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a legitimate question, but I can't tell if you're wondering whether we have significant influence on it at all, or if you are just wondering what fraction the solar cycle being at its maximum ~now (iirc) and other such effects are (which I imagine is no more than a few percent, since previous ones are not immediately apparent in the visualization of the previous 10k-odd years ( https://xkcd.com/1732/); or even i…

The Solar Cycle is approximately has a period of ~11 years ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle ). The heating clearly shown in these visualizations does not appear to be related to the solar cycle.

That it has no evident effect is the point I was trying to make. Could I have phrased it better?

Re: Rising Temperatures in the Netherlands

#25

Post by galangalalgol »

adrianN wrote: post #14
twentysix wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If history has taught us anything, the idea of "settled science" is as anti science as it comes.

Asimov has refuted this argument more eloquently than I could here: https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~dbalmer/eportfolio/Nature%20of%20...

Thanks i like that! Likewise, the relativity of wrong reactions to our situation needs to be considered I think. There seemsnto be consensus now that it is too late to address the problem only in the right way. We should still do all of those things. But to avoid mass suffering, it is well past time we considered planet scale climate engineering as a valid approach. It is risky, but risky is, like wrongness, relative. And the wrongness and riskiness of acting without knowing all the effects is relatively less, not just than continuing on the current path, but even than adopting all the right behaviors at this late hour with no other steps.

Re: Rising Temperatures in the Netherlands

#27

Post by lucb1e »

flerp wrote: post #10
hotpotamus wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m pretty sure the only anomalies that have ever produced geographic temperature changes as drastic as the ones visualized are things like city-sized asteroid collisions or volcanic eruptions that blot out the sun. If you haven’t noticed any of those, then it’s probably safe to assume that approximately 100% of the effect is down to human activity.

That’s a faulty statement! https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

I don't understand what part of that link is supposed to prove the person wrong. Could you cite that part, or at least point out what part of the above statement is supposedly wrong in the first place?

Re: Rising Temperatures in the Netherlands

#29

Post by j4yav »

edgefield wrote: post #28

It’s hard to believe how many visitors to HN are climate science deniers. This is equivalent to claiming the earth is flat, denying the value of vaccines, or arguing that we didn’t really land on the moon.

There's a strong contrarian trait here, for sure. Also, if you look at the usernames in these situations it's often one or two people replying to literally everyone.
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