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For anybody close to the topic and knowing how shocked the Israeli society was on Oct 7th, this paper makes a very strong claim that needs more than just circumstantial evidence (higher short trades). Like any circumstantial evidence, many reasons could trigger unusual trading patterns
IMHO there's a good chance that Bibi and his friends were warned about the incoming big Hamas attack by Mossad and/or other Israeli agencies. Would Bibi act to prevent it or use it to stay in power and potentially get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza?
Why do you think there is a good chance?
"The groups carried out joint drills in Gaza which closely resembled the tactics used during the deadly assault - including at a site less than 1km (0.6 miles) from the barrier with Israel - and posted them on social media.
They practised hostage-taking, raiding compounds and breaching Israel's defences during these exercises, the last of which was held just 25 days before the attack."
The paper suggests that people who knew about the October attacks (so probably not Israelis, we can have a few guesses who) were short selling Israeli companies, as well as index funds based on Israeli companies, just in time. This happened both on US markets and elsewhere. So that while blood was being spilled they lined their pockets. It'd be interesting but I guess impossible to see how much it is later converted to crypto and reinvested into terrorism and how much is just blood profits that get reinvested.
The paper obviously can't tell who is trading and why, so it's not a positive proof, but it'd be interesting to see if money could be followed. Looks like they did a lot of work to eliminate any false signals.
I wish their typography was more readable, that line height is a major pain to read and why is it a PDF for crying out loud.
From what I've read, even Hamas' own leaders were unaware of the Oct 7 attack planning. Maybe the Israeli equivalent of the SEC can figure out who placed these trades.
Egyptian intelligence knew about it and warned. Moreover there were detailed plans known already about a year earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h... This is kind of similar, but smaller in scale, to how Ukraine was surprised that there was actually a push on Kyiv from the north with an attempt at decapitating the state. It's one thing to have the intelligence at hand, it's another to…
IMHO there's a good chance that Bibi and his friends were warned about the incoming big Hamas attack by Mossad and/or other Israeli agencies. Would Bibi act to prevent it or use it to stay in power and potentially get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza?
Why do you think there is a good chance?
Now the problem with retrospectively "knowing about things" is that it's hard to account for the thousand other threats these people are constantly being made aware of and which ultimately don't materialize. Or at least I presume that's the case.
There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…
> It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack This is an odd way to decribe things considering Gaza is not a state. Its population is mostly refugees who were ethnically cleansed from nearby villages and functionally it operates as a concentration camp preventing those people from trying to return to those villages which are now occupied by settlers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip
Also, it has been de facto ruled by Hamas since (edit: 2007) despite formally being under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…
IMHO there's a good chance that Bibi and his friends were warned about the incoming big Hamas attack by Mossad and/or other Israeli agencies. Would Bibi act to prevent it or use it to stay in power and potentially get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza?
Why do you think there is a good chance?
There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…
Confusing the Israeli president and prime minister shows the level of insight here.
There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…