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Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

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Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#21
post #5
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? Have you experience restrictions on private transportation or heating justified by incorrect climate change causality?

Yes, the EU will forbid the sale of new petrol vehicles starting in 2035.

I love the smell of gasoline in the morning

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#22
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I be would naïvely think to move to up north to colder places because they will get warmer and have to deal the least with climate refuges. The equator will be death around it will be not that great, beyond that will be refuges. So Russia is looking great. There is a huge climate change boon Russia is set to receive within the next 50-100 years. Maybe Canada too and Scandinavia

> The equator will be death Massive hyperbole. If temperatures increase 4.5 f - in South America, where most people live around the equator will be fine. Same for Indonesia. India's population is pretty heavily focused in the North and should will also not all overheat to death. Don't know about Africa. Also - moving north if you think the AOC will collapse is a losing strategy. Scandinavia will be colder than Greenl…

True. What will happen though is that these regions will suffer from stagnating (or even declining) productivity and anaemic growth. Farms will produce less so more energy will be used on fertilizers and irrigation. Everything will have to be air conditioned - more energy expenditure. At an individual level, productivity will drop off as people deal with the heat and humidity.

Personally, living in India, I’ve watched my summers become worse and worse every year. And while I have no way to measure it, my productivity keeps going down with it in the summer.

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The equator will be death Massive hyperbole. If temperatures increase 4.5 f - in South America, where most people live around the equator will be fine. Same for Indonesia. India's population is pretty heavily focused in the North and should will also not all overheat to death. Don't know about Africa. Also - moving north if you think the AOC will collapse is a losing strategy. Scandinavia will be colder than Greenl…

True. What will happen though is that these regions will suffer from stagnating (or even declining) productivity and anaemic growth. Farms will produce less so more energy will be used on fertilizers and irrigation. Everything will have to be air conditioned - more energy expenditure. At an individual level, productivity will drop off as people deal with the heat and humidity. Personally, living in India, I’ve watche…

You're missing access to water, which is perhaps the biggest issue.

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#24
I mean given what we know about the Sahara and its wet and dry periods, it doesn’t seem at all illogical that ocean currents should start and stop to match.

I think it’s important to understand that the earth is deeply dynamic and constantly changing, and has incredible variation in often cyclical patterns over hundreds, thousands and tens of thousands of years.

While we know human caused elements are accelerating trends, it’s important to separate the human accelerant from the fact that the Earth herself goes through regular and quite massive changes — that climate change can affect — but that are normal, quite natural and quite civilization and food growing pattern interrupting sized.

We have been in a period of unusual climate stability…

Edit: I’m getting heavily downvoted so I feel the need to clarify, as this comment is not incorrect or even controversial in climate circles. We have experienced rapid changes inside of single human lifetimes many times, and It’s important to be able to talk about science openly without labeling everyone who doesn’t parrot exactly the narrative you expect them to conform to just because it kinda sorta looks like a climate denier even though it isn’t. Very much not what I would expect of the HN crowd.

Here’s a write up:

> Most likely, freshwater delivered from the ice sheet to the North Atlantic periodically disrupted the overturning of the ocean, causing the transport of tropical heat to the north to reduce and then suddenly increase again. While this mechanism is unlikely to occur today’s world, it does show us that, at least regionally, the climate is capable of extraordinary changes within a human lifetime – rapid switches we certainly want to avoid experiencing.

https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/ice-cores-an...

Further:

> A new study suggests climate conditions in the Sahara Desert have changed from wet to dry about every 20,000 years. The study was carried out by scientists at America's Massachusetts Institute of Technology, or MIT. Findings were published in the journal Science Advances.

https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/study-africa-s-sahara-....

There is precious little discussion of the research on natural climate change and the patterns that man made climate change is enhancing, and it’s very, very important to learn about the natural cycles and how man made climate change changes them.

If that’s worth downvoting simply because it doesn’t align with the Only Allowed NarrativeTM for anything climate related then HN is no longer the discussion platform for reasonably intelligent people it once was and that would be very sad indeed.

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#25
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I be would naïvely think to move to up north to colder places because they will get warmer and have to deal the least with climate refuges. The equator will be death around it will be not that great, beyond that will be refuges. So Russia is looking great. There is a huge climate change boon Russia is set to receive within the next 50-100 years. Maybe Canada too and Scandinavia

> The equator will be death Massive hyperbole. If temperatures increase 4.5 f - in South America, where most people live around the equator will be fine. Same for Indonesia. India's population is pretty heavily focused in the North and should will also not all overheat to death. Don't know about Africa. Also - moving north if you think the AOC will collapse is a losing strategy. Scandinavia will be colder than Greenl…

I would have thought wet bulb temperatures would be the more relevant metric for when temperatures are too hot.

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#26
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I be would naïvely think to move to up north to colder places because they will get warmer and have to deal the least with climate refuges. The equator will be death around it will be not that great, beyond that will be refuges. So Russia is looking great. There is a huge climate change boon Russia is set to receive within the next 50-100 years. Maybe Canada too and Scandinavia

> The equator will be death Massive hyperbole. If temperatures increase 4.5 f - in South America, where most people live around the equator will be fine. Same for Indonesia. India's population is pretty heavily focused in the North and should will also not all overheat to death. Don't know about Africa. Also - moving north if you think the AOC will collapse is a losing strategy. Scandinavia will be colder than Greenl…

So there is a decent chance that my vacation house in northern Sweden will still get snow in the winter? At least there is some silver lining for me.

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#27
post #9
post #6

Anyone know a good web site or publication that shows potential outcomes from all these different changes to global climate and where will be the best places to live in the future? Should i be looking to buy plots of property it Alaska?

I be would naïvely think to move to up north to colder places because they will get warmer and have to deal the least with climate refuges. The equator will be death around it will be not that great, beyond that will be refuges. So Russia is looking great. There is a huge climate change boon Russia is set to receive within the next 50-100 years. Maybe Canada too and Scandinavia

Northern Michigan is projected to be the most sought after markets in the US come 2050. The jet stream is indeed moving north and the climate will become milder over time. Michigan is also surrounded by the Great Lakes which account for 20% of earth's fresh water.

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#28

One of the implications of the Gulf Stream weakening is that Northern Europe will get cold and Northern Northern Europe will get hella cold (eg. Norway): "If it collapses, it could lower temperatures by up to 10 or 15 degrees in Europe and lead to rising sea levels in the eastern US. It would also disrupt rain that billions rely on for agriculture."

It weakened by 4% over 40 years. Why should we be concerned it's going to weaken by 100% in less than 40 years? Why should we expect the climate will be the same in 100 years as it is today? The climate has always been changing. Europe was in an ice age from 1300 to 1850. Do you think we could've done anything to stop that? Or should have?

> It weakened by 4% over 40 years.

Is that a little or a lot? Do you know? The Gulf Stream is what’s keeping my country habitable, so maybe I want a bit more reassurance?

The periods you mention are associated with crop failure and widespread famine. There were a lot less people back then.

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#29
post #6

Anyone know a good web site or publication that shows potential outcomes from all these different changes to global climate and where will be the best places to live in the future? Should i be looking to buy plots of property it Alaska?

Aren't all the oligarchs building their escape bunkers in New Zealand?

Re: Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

#30

[flagged]

- Accelerated ice melt - The Gulf Stream brings warm water near Greenland and Antarctica. Its weakening could disrupt this process, potentially speeding up ice sheet melt.

I don't understand this one. Why would the reduction in warm water brought to Greenland cause the ice sheets to melt more?

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