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Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

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Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#21
post #14
post #6

Cryptocurrency is, in a sense, a bottom-up tool against top-down state control of a finance system. This is not strictly a good or a bad thing; just a thing. If the people of a country have a "common law" underlying their bottom-up interactions, that already works on its own as a basis for a productive and growing economy — but a totalitarian state has imposed top-down laws that interfere with that productive economy…

> then crypto will help "route around" that well-meaning state, and thereby reinforce the criminal capture of the economy. How is it possible that these rent-extracting middlemen (whatever it means, mafia?) can _not_ be in control of the state long term? If they capture the profits that power the state in the end, wouldn't it be correct to describe it as a state-in-another-state, state-in-transition or just two-compe…

> Crypto seemingly helps with both mafia and the govt

Crypto never helps the state (in isolaton†); insofar as part of a state's responsibilities include issuing and controlling a fiat currency, setting import/export controls for that currency, etc., then the existence of crypto only serves to interfere with state control.

Crypto helps a criminal gang insofar as it helps it evade state control over e.g. moving large amounts of wealth into/out of the country.

Consider for a moment: when Pablo Escobar was selling billions of dollars of drugs, it was just as much of a logistical challenge to move the money while avoiding state interception, as it was to move the drugs. Crypto completely obviates that logistical challenge.

> How is it possible that these rent-extracting middlemen (whatever it means, mafia?) can _not_ be in control of the state long term?

Because the country as a whole is small, and other nations do not recognize the legitimacy of the criminal-gang-as-state and will continually help the citizens of the country to take down the criminal gangs whenever they rise close to that level of power.

Also because the gangs just don't have popular support. Ruling by fear can work if your economy is based on resource extraction and that resource extraction can be mostly automated; but it doesn't work at all if your economy relies on productive bottom-up trade interactions between citizens. The gang only had something to exploit insofar as there was still a slightly-productive economy for it to parasitize; if it manages to capture the entire economy, then at that exact point, that economy is dead, and there is nothing more to extract.

(But really, you don't need a theory behind it, you can just see that it doesn't happen in practice. Venezuela never became a true kleptocracy; Haiti still isn't a kleptocracy; etc.)

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† Western countries have adopted a policy of not doing much to interfere with the growth of crypto. This is realpolitik. Crypto most interferes with states that try to most-heavily manipulate their financial system. Right now, those states it most interferes with, are states that Western countries want to economically hobble, lest they end up at war with them. The US, for example, is very happy to see Chinese capital flight to US investments, enabled via crypto despite China's best efforts.

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#22
post #19
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a totalitarian state has imposed top-down laws that interfere with that productive economy — then crypto will help "route around" that totalitarian state, and thereby help the economy. I don’t think this fits the technology: blockchains are perfect for totalitarian states since they prevent anyone from hiding from the tax collectors and police. The only way it helps is if the government is too weak to enforce its l…

> prevent anyone from hiding from the tax collectors and police Only if you use chains with traceable transactions.

I did not know this is possible - can You give an example of blockchain with this property?

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#23
post #22
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> prevent anyone from hiding from the tax collectors and police Only if you use chains with traceable transactions.

I did not know this is possible - can You give an example of blockchain with this property?

zcash is one. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zcash

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#24
post #22
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> prevent anyone from hiding from the tax collectors and police Only if you use chains with traceable transactions.

I did not know this is possible - can You give an example of blockchain with this property?

Monero, and zero-knowledge ones: zcash and more recent Mina which supports smart contracts.

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#25

The article is devoid of substance. > All but two of the top 20 countries for crypto adoption are emerging markets, with countries like Venezuela, El Salvador and Nigeria becoming test beds for whether cryptocurrencies could offer a balm to countries ravaged by inflation and depreciating official currencies. There is a reason why people in Venezuela and Argentina flock to currency different from the wildly inflating…

So to evade hyperinflation one uses an asset which is more volatile, and in the case of BTC, is deflationary by nature. Which as in _investment_ is fine, but as a means of payment not, as the whole essence of a _sensible_ amount (2-3%) of inflation is a driver for economic growth. The problem with this statement is that using one evil to escape the other which doesn't make sense.

Countries with a weak rule of law shouldn't (monetary wise) not be made weaker by using a volatile and highly (let's not deny it..) manipulative asset.

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#26

The article is devoid of substance. > All but two of the top 20 countries for crypto adoption are emerging markets, with countries like Venezuela, El Salvador and Nigeria becoming test beds for whether cryptocurrencies could offer a balm to countries ravaged by inflation and depreciating official currencies. There is a reason why people in Venezuela and Argentina flock to currency different from the wildly inflating…

So to evade hyperinflation one uses an asset which is more volatile, and in the case of BTC, is deflationary by nature. Which as in _investment_ is fine, but as a means of payment not, as the whole essence of a _sensible_ amount (2-3%) of inflation is a driver for economic growth. The problem with this statement is that using one evil to escape the other which doesn't make sense. Countries with a weak rule of law sho…

Bitcoin has been very stable against the USD for a while now.

And that's just bitcoin, stable coins are more reliable.

And of course inflation only robs holders, at least volatility goes in your favour half the time.

I also would not call it an investment: there is no reason to expect prices to rise. Bitcoin does not grow in the way a company can (making shares an investment) or pay interest like a bond. It's at best a speculative asset, like maybe gold?

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to evade hyperinflation one uses an asset which is more volatile, and in the case of BTC, is deflationary by nature. Which as in _investment_ is fine, but as a means of payment not, as the whole essence of a _sensible_ amount (2-3%) of inflation is a driver for economic growth. The problem with this statement is that using one evil to escape the other which doesn't make sense. Countries with a weak rule of law sho…

Bitcoin has been very stable against the USD for a while now. And that's just bitcoin, stable coins are more reliable. And of course inflation only robs holders, at least volatility goes in your favour half the time. I also would not call it an investment: there is no reason to expect prices to rise. Bitcoin does not grow in the way a company can (making shares an investment) or pay interest like a bond. It's at best…

> Bitcoin has been very stable against the USD for a while now.

But isn't stable against itself. People who got in first are infinitely richer than people who would buy it a generation from now.

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#28
post #6

Cryptocurrency is, in a sense, a bottom-up tool against top-down state control of a finance system. This is not strictly a good or a bad thing; just a thing. If the people of a country have a "common law" underlying their bottom-up interactions, that already works on its own as a basis for a productive and growing economy — but a totalitarian state has imposed top-down laws that interfere with that productive economy…

Those of us fortunate to live within a, mostly, good economic system don’t need cryptocurrency. I don’t have a problem saying that. But I also have the imagination to wonder if it will always be the case. And the empathy to understand that not every human is as fortunate as myself. People making broad statements about a technology seem to do so only from their current perspective. “Crypto is useless” for example, rea…

I've lived in both a bad economy and a good economy. Having your money in USD is always a safer bet in bad economies.

> “Crypto is useless” for example, really means: “crypto is useless to me.”

No. It means "crypto is useless for every single use case it's advertised as a solution for except illegal money transfers, and even then the number of caveats is as long as the equator"

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to evade hyperinflation one uses an asset which is more volatile, and in the case of BTC, is deflationary by nature. Which as in _investment_ is fine, but as a means of payment not, as the whole essence of a _sensible_ amount (2-3%) of inflation is a driver for economic growth. The problem with this statement is that using one evil to escape the other which doesn't make sense. Countries with a weak rule of law sho…

Bitcoin has been very stable against the USD for a while now. And that's just bitcoin, stable coins are more reliable. And of course inflation only robs holders, at least volatility goes in your favour half the time. I also would not call it an investment: there is no reason to expect prices to rise. Bitcoin does not grow in the way a company can (making shares an investment) or pay interest like a bond. It's at best…

>And that's just bitcoin, stable coins are more reliable.

Until they submit to agnostic third party audits, they're not stable.

Re: Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

#30
post #19
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a totalitarian state has imposed top-down laws that interfere with that productive economy — then crypto will help "route around" that totalitarian state, and thereby help the economy. I don’t think this fits the technology: blockchains are perfect for totalitarian states since they prevent anyone from hiding from the tax collectors and police. The only way it helps is if the government is too weak to enforce its l…

> prevent anyone from hiding from the tax collectors and police Only if you use chains with traceable transactions.

You also have to only buy things available purely on that system from people you are certain don’t collaborate with the government. If all of those assumptions aren’t true, your activity can be tracked with increasing precision and the authorities will see local transactions which you can’t explain otherwise and demand explanations.

The schemes Zcash and Monero use have never been tested at scale with a sophisticated adversary. The statistical methods used are probably fine for keeping your friends from knowing what you buy but it’s less clear that a government which can observe network traffic and receive KYC data from compliant merchants or compromised devices won’t be able to rule out some of the decoys over time, and since it’s a blockchain you’re gambling that this will hold true forever.

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