Live data from Hacker News

How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

economist.com

21–30 of 257 posts

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#21
post #6

When these types of things are funded one always gets the sinking feeling that the money is just getting stolen and/or wasted by savvy insiders who know how to write grants or who know the right people. In fact, I think that's a reasonable assumption and some proof is required to show that it is not the case.

They profited offshoring now they will charge you to bring it back so they can profit some more. The wheel will continue to spin and nothing will come from it. Just enjoy the ride.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#22

While I have some sympathy for the policy makers attempting to do this they do appear to be oblivious that to the outside world, especially their allies, the meta-lesson is any critical industry will eventually be onshored by the printing of hundreds of billions to price you out if necessary. This isn't a recipe for long term peaceful co-operation. It's ridiculous to criticise China on one hand, and then emulate ever…

So if we criticize China we should do nothing? It’s not clear how you can be sympathetic that something should be done and against the obvious thing that should be done.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#24
Surprisingly few people engage with the main points of the article. It is pointed out how much money are spent, but the article is about how profitable those fabs will be. The author is conservative in judgments, but they ask a few questions worth considering, mainly: are the fabs big and efficient enough to offset the slower build, which is also more expensive, for lower volumes of production.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#25
America's basic socioeconomic structual model is highly flawed and any company wanting to do manufacturing here will see obvious disadvantages compared to Europe or Asia.

1) Employers are responsible for employee health coverage, inflating employee costs by a significant degree. The rationale for this model among the investor class is that it makes employees dependent on their employer and limits the power of unions, but for example in Germany, there's free state-supplied health care (paid for by higher taxes on individual and corporate profits).

2) Four decades of neoliberal trade policy and corporate profit maximization have created a situation of fragile global supply chain dependence and a lack of skilled experienced labor in many manufacturing sectors. High-skill manufacturing jobs have been replaced with low-skill service jobs and the brain drain into the financial sector has left the industrial sector in second place.

3) Construction and operation of new manufacturing facilities relies on a robust domestic infrastructure system, but American infrastructure (railroads, electricity grids, ports, etc.) is woefully decrepit in many areas and lags behind China and Europe. Again the reason is nobody wants to pay for it, and the issue is not 'overregulation' it's that it would require higher taxes and corrupt government contractors divert government funds into their own pockets instead of into the projects, resulting in constant cost overruns and low-quality outputs (reminscent with what went on with Iraq and Afghanistan reconstruction contracts).

It turns out worshipping at the feet of Milton Friedman & Co. wasn't such a good idea after all.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#26

While I have some sympathy for the policy makers attempting to do this they do appear to be oblivious that to the outside world, especially their allies, the meta-lesson is any critical industry will eventually be onshored by the printing of hundreds of billions to price you out if necessary. This isn't a recipe for long term peaceful co-operation. It's ridiculous to criticise China on one hand, and then emulate ever…

Will you explain what “emulate every move they’ve made ten/twenty years later” means? I don’t understand this comment.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#27
post #6

When these types of things are funded one always gets the sinking feeling that the money is just getting stolen and/or wasted by savvy insiders who know how to write grants or who know the right people. In fact, I think that's a reasonable assumption and some proof is required to show that it is not the case.

While skepticism is good, the skepticism should go both ways. What other types of funding like this are you thinking about?

It's been a long time since the US did industrial policy.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#28
post #6

When these types of things are funded one always gets the sinking feeling that the money is just getting stolen and/or wasted by savvy insiders who know how to write grants or who know the right people. In fact, I think that's a reasonable assumption and some proof is required to show that it is not the case.

It's hard to fake a building going up.

While that's true, what _can_ happen with these sorts of subsidised projects is that the building goes up, but... that's about it, and nothing much ever happens in the building (this was essentially the case with that Foxconn Wisconsin thing, say). That said, that does _not_ seem to be the case in this instance, but, in general, a building going up isn't great evidence for anything.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#29

Surprisingly few people engage with the main points of the article. It is pointed out how much money are spent, but the article is about how profitable those fabs will be. The author is conservative in judgments, but they ask a few questions worth considering, mainly: are the fabs big and efficient enough to offset the slower build, which is also more expensive, for lower volumes of production.

The real question is how unprofitable will it be to remain dependent on Taiwan in the face of the inevitable conflict coming with China. US and Europe based fabs could literally lose money and require subsidies and still net out as less expensive.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#30
post #17

The world’s largest deposit of ultra pure quartz, which is needed for the very high end processors, is in North Carolina. The renaissance is real, or is about to be.

Is it difficult to refine less-pure quartz?

I just assumed they had processes for eliminating any and all contaminants.

Post reply on HN