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Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

mattmazur.com

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Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#21

Post by Tichy »

cabalamat wrote: post #17
Tichy wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not saying that it would have been successful, hard to say. But reading "Advertising is a tax for being unremarkable” seems a bit harsh. In some businesses, there simply is no other way. For example recently I heard from some online dating services that they really boil down to the hard calculation of "how expensive is it to convert a user we bought with advertising". Like if they raise their conversion rates, they c…

> In some businesses, there simply is no other way. For example recently I heard from some online dating services I don't think advertising is necessary for an online dating service. For example, quite a few of my friends are on OK Cupid, and as far as I know they don't do much advertising. "Advertising is a tax for being unremarkable" is a really succinct way of putting it.

Even if you can be successful without advertising, it seems a bit silly to be against it. If you know that by investing 100000$ in advertising, you can earn another 1000000$ in revenue, why would you not do it? Just because it loses you points in the indie scene?

I used to be all negative about advertising, but I changed my attitude since I realized that nature itself relies heavily on advertising. A beautiful flower is advertising, too. Even a flower has to announce "I am here" with colors and odors. Maybe in some cases a "social recommendation mechanism" is also at work (like the bees who inform other bees about food sources), but without such a mechanism, how are your clients going to discover you?

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#22

Post by arockwell »

Tichy wrote: post #10
matt1 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. I added a bit of clarification to the article since it did read like the one post was the only thing I did. After it launched I decided that the best way to demonstrate its utility was to search poker forums for problems and then post the ALL IN Expert results. I wound up adding a feature to the software that let people export the results in a forum-friendly format which also linked back to the site. This…

Not saying that it would have been successful, hard to say. But reading "Advertising is a tax for being unremarkable” seems a bit harsh. In some businesses, there simply is no other way. For example recently I heard from some online dating services that they really boil down to the hard calculation of "how expensive is it to convert a user we bought with advertising". Like if they raise their conversion rates, they c…

If they're spending that much money on advertising doesn't that imply that they are unremarkable?

Advertising isn't a bad thing, but if your only differentiator is advertising you're probably screwed.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#23

Post by aidanf »

matt1 wrote: post #11
jd wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were you aware of the existing (and immensely popular) free tools when you started programming? If so, what was going to be your edge?

I assume you're talking about PokerStove, no? I happily used it for a long time, but felt it could use some improvement. For example, you can't weigh the hands in your opponent's range (that is, saying KK is half as likely as AA). Also, PokerStove is great for calculating equity, but not so much for calculating EV. To calculate your EV when you call is pretty easy (EV = equity * new_pot - to_call), but to calculate y…

Interesting article. I remember reading your announcement on 2p2 at the time. I went to your website and scanned the 2p2 thread.

The main reason I didn't buy it was that from what I read it seemed like anything I could do with your program I could already do with PokerStove or StoxEV. And they're both free.

If you want me to pay for poker software (and I've paid for lots of poker-related software) you have to convince me that it will give me an edge or allow me to do something that I can't already do with existing free software.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#24

Post by breck »

matt1 wrote: post #9
vlad wrote: post #4

I don't think you had a failed poker software business. You wrote, released, and announced some software. That's simply step one, and the very minimum. Next, you need to iterate, which may include adding features found in other software, creating a web version, and more. I see very few lessons here, and they are on how to fail.

Yep, you're right. As I mentioned in the post, I use the word "business" liberally for lack of a better term. If there had been a future for the product I would have iterated, created a web app, etc, but I decided it wasn't worth the effort. As far as the lessons, figuring out how something fails is strongly tied to figuring out why it succeeds.

"but I decided it wasn't worth the effort."

Good decision. It seems like you have a lot of talent and can make a LOT more money in a vertical other than poker. Also, it will probably be more enjoyable in another domain.

My 2 cents. We tried to a business in the lottery space once because it seemed there were no good tech companies there, there was a ton of money at stake, and lots of innovation to be done. But after a short time it was really demoralizing to be in that type of vertical. Fail fast and move on!

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#26

Post by matt1 »

lazyant wrote: post #20

Perhaps you can make an online free version and put some ads?

Given the small target audience, I don't think it would be worth it to convert it into a free web app. Anyone that wants to toy with it is welcomed to download the desktop app now anyway.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#27

Post by matt1 »

Fuca wrote: post #25

How can this be a Fail? Give it for free if that what it takes then adapt it to make money.

"Give it for free if that what it takes then adapt it to make money." -- I laughed.

With a lot of work it might one day make some decent change, but again, it's not worth it at this point.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#28

Post by Tichy »

arockwell wrote: post #22
Tichy wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not saying that it would have been successful, hard to say. But reading "Advertising is a tax for being unremarkable” seems a bit harsh. In some businesses, there simply is no other way. For example recently I heard from some online dating services that they really boil down to the hard calculation of "how expensive is it to convert a user we bought with advertising". Like if they raise their conversion rates, they c…

If they're spending that much money on advertising doesn't that imply that they are unremarkable? Advertising isn't a bad thing, but if your only differentiator is advertising you're probably screwed.

Unremarkable or not, they do make a lot of money.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#29

Post by matt1 »

aidanf wrote: post #23
matt1 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume you're talking about PokerStove, no? I happily used it for a long time, but felt it could use some improvement. For example, you can't weigh the hands in your opponent's range (that is, saying KK is half as likely as AA). Also, PokerStove is great for calculating equity, but not so much for calculating EV. To calculate your EV when you call is pretty easy (EV = equity * new_pot - to_call), but to calculate y…

Interesting article. I remember reading your announcement on 2p2 at the time. I went to your website and scanned the 2p2 thread. The main reason I didn't buy it was that from what I read it seemed like anything I could do with your program I could already do with PokerStove or StoxEV. And they're both free. If you want me to pay for poker software (and I've paid for lots of poker-related software) you have to convinc…

I guess the lesson there is that you have to clearly show how spending the money will benefit the customer. I agree, the homepage didn't do it very well. Thanks for the post. What did you think of StoxEV?

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#30

Post by rantfoil »

matt1 wrote: post #26
lazyant wrote: post #20

Perhaps you can make an online free version and put some ads?

Given the small target audience, I don't think it would be worth it to convert it into a free web app. Anyone that wants to toy with it is welcomed to download the desktop app now anyway.

I don't think that's true at all. It depends on how much use you really can drive. With an online app, with no app install, and purely organic growth and a whole ton of community evangelism, I could see it be a really successful web app.

Aren't online gambling sites some of the biggest spenders on online ad sales? With revenue of $6+ billion per year, I think a good chunk of that must go to lead generation.

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